CALMS: Modelling the long-term health and economic impact of Covid-19 using agent-based simulation

Data Availability Statement: All data files are available from https://doi.org/10.17633/rd.brunel.19350518 The software is available on https://gitlab.com/anabrunel/calms.Copyright: © 2022 Mintram et al. We present our agent-based CoronAvirus Lifelong Modelling and Simulation (CALMS) model that aspires to predict the lifelong impacts of Covid-19 on the health and economy of a population. CALMS considers individual characteristics as well as comorbidities in calculating the risk of infection and severe disease. We conduct two sets of experiments aiming at demonstrating the validity and capabilities of CALMS. We run simulations retrospectively and validate the model outputs against hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities in a UK population for the period between March and September 2020. We then run simulations for the lifetime of the cohort applying a variety of targeted intervention strategies and compare their effectiveness against the baseline scenario where no intervention is applied. Four scenarios are simulated with targeted vaccination programmes and periodic lockdowns. Vaccinations are targeted first at individuals based on their age and second at vulnerable individuals based on their health status. Periodic lockdowns, triggered by hospitalisations, are tested with and without vaccination programme in place. Our results demonstrate that periodic lockdowns achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 6-8% compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £173 million per 1,000 people and targeted vaccination programmes achieve reductions in hospitalisations, ICU admissions and fatalities of 89-90%, compared to the baseline scenario, with an associated intervention cost of £51,924 per 1,000 people. We conclude that periodic lockdowns alone are ineffective at reducing health-related outputs over the long-term and that vaccination programmes which target only the clinically vulnerable are sufficient in providing healthcare protection for the population as a whole.EU Horizon 2020 STAMINA project No. 883441 (https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/883441)

FACS-CHARM: A Hybrid Agent-Based and Discrete-Event Simulation Approach for Covid-19 Management at Regional Level

10.13039/100010661-EU H2020 STAMINA (Grant Number: 883441

Railway bridge structural health monitoring and fault detection: state-of-the-art methods and future challenges

Railway importance in the transportation industry is increasing continuously, due to the growing demand of both passenger travel and transportation of goods. However, more than 35% of the 300,000 railway bridges across Europe are over 100-years old, and their reliability directly impacts the reliability of the railway network. This increased demand may lead to higher risk associated with their unexpected failures, resulting safety hazards to passengers and increased whole life cycle cost of the asset. Consequently, one of the most important aspects of evaluation of the reliability of the overall railway transport system is bridge structural health monitoring, which can monitor the health state of the bridge by allowing an early detection of failures. Therefore, a fast, safe and cost-effective recovery of the optimal health state of the bridge, where the levels of element degradation or failure are maintained efficiently, can be achieved. In this article, after an introduction to the desired features of structural health monitoring, a review of the most commonly adopted bridge fault detection methods is presented. Mainly, the analysis focuses on model-based finite element updating strategies, non-model-based (data-driven) fault detection methods, such as artificial neural network, and Bayesian belief network–based structural health monitoring methods. A comparative study, which aims to discuss and compare the performance of the reviewed types of structural health monitoring methods, is then presented by analysing a short-span steel structure of a railway bridge. Opportunities and future challenges of the fault detection methods of railway bridges are highlighted

Correlations between milk and plasma levels of amino and carboxylic acids in dairy cows.

The objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between the concentrations of 19 amino acids, glucose, and seven carboxylic acids in the blood and milk of dairy cows and their correlations with established markers of ketosis. To that end, blood plasma and milk specimens were collected throughout lactation in two breeds of dairy cows of different milk yield. Plasma concentrations of glucose, pyruvate, lactate, α-aminobutyrate, β-hydroxybutyrate (BHBA), and most amino acids, except for glutamate and aspartate, were on average 9.9-fold higher than their respective milk levels. In contrast, glutamate, aspartate, and the Krebs cycle intermediates succinate, fumarate, malate, and citrate were on average 9.1-fold higher in milk than in plasma. For most metabolites, with the exception of BHBA and threonine, no significant correlations were observed between their levels in plasma and milk. Additionally, milk levels of acetone showed significant direct relationships with the glycine-to-alanine ratio and the BHBA concentration in plasma. The marked decline in plasma concentrations of glucose, pyruvate, lactate, and alanine in cows with plasma BHBA levels above the diagnostic cutoff point for subclinical ketosis suggests that these animals fail to meet their glucose demand and, as a consequence, rely increasingly on ketone bodies as a source of energy. The concomitant increase in plasma glycine may reflect not only the excessive depletion of protein reserves but also a potential deficiency of vitamin B6

Involvement of the endocannabinoid system in attentional modulation of nociceptive behaviour in rats

BackgroundDistraction is used clinically to relieve and manage pain. It is hypothesized that pain demands attention and that exposure to another attention-demanding stimulus causes withdrawal of attention away from painful stimuli, thereby reducing perceived pain. We have recently developed a rat model that provides an opportunity to investigate the neurobiological mechanisms mediating distraction-induced analgesia, as these mechanisms are, at present, poorly understood. Given the well-described role of the endogenous cannabinoid (endocannabinoid; EC) system in the modulation of pain and attentional processing, the present study investigated its role in distraction-induced antinociception in rats.MethodsAnimals received the CB1 receptor antagonist/inverse agonist, rimonabant or vehicle intraperitoneally, 30min prior to behavioural evaluation. Formalin-evoked nociceptive behaviour was measured in the presence or absence of a novel-object distractor. Liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was used to determine the levels of the endogenous cannabinoids anandamide and 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) in the ventral hippocampus (vHip).ResultsExposure to a novel object distractor significantly reduced formalin-evoked nociceptive behaviour. The novel object-induced reduction in nociceptive behaviour was attenuated by rimonabant. Novel object exposure was also associated with increased tissue levels of anandamide and 2-AG in the vHip.ConclusionsThese data suggest that the reduction in formalin-evoked nociceptive behaviour that occurs as a result of exposure to a novel object may be mediated by engagement of the EC system, in particular in the vHip. The results provide evidence that the EC system may be an important neural substrate subserving attentional modulation of pain.This publication has emanated from research conducted with the financial support of the Science Foundation Ireland under Grant Numbers 05/Y12/B686 and 10/IN.1/B2976.peer-reviewe

Association analyses of a SNP in the promoter of IGF1 with fat deposition and carcass merit traits in hybrid, Angus and Charolais beef cattle

Summary A SNP in the promoter region of insulin like growth factor-1 (IGF1) (c.-512C>T) was analysed for associations with 10 fat deposition and carcass merit traits in hybrid (n = 455), Angus (n = 204) and Charolais (n = 186) beef cattle populations. Significant associations of the SNP were found for ultrasound backfat thickness (P = 0.030), carcass average backfat (P = 0.015) and carcass lean meat yield (LMY) (P = 0.023) in the Angus beef population, with the 'CC' genotype showing higher fat depth and lower LMY than the 'TT' genotype. Analyses of transcription factor binding sites based on transcription element search system prediction revealed that the 'C' allele introduces a binding site for nuclear factor I, which has an adipose tissue-specific regulatory role and thus may contribute to the SNP effect on fat deposition in the population of pure Angus cattle, a breed with greater fat depth than the hybrid and Charolais breeds

Effects of feeding wheat straw and middlings ensiled with whey on digestibility and growth of cattle

Two studies were conducted with the objective of evaluating the effects of feeding different levels of whey ensiled with wheat straw and wheat middlings (whey silage) compared to control diets on production parameters in growing cattle. Whey silage was included in diets at 55 and 65.5% on a dry matter basis with net energy for maintenance and crude protein calculated to be similar to control diets containing a combination of alfalfa hay, corn silage and wheat middlings at 1.74 Mcal kg-1 and 13.4%, respectively. Dry matter intake averaged 8.41 versus 8.91 kg d-1 (P \u3c 0.05) and 8.68 versus 7.09 kg d-1 (P \u3c 0.05) when whey silage was included at either 55 or 65.5% of the diets compared to the control diets. Average daily gains of cattle fed whey silage incorporated at 55% was 1.00 versus 1.14 kg d-1 (P \u3c 0.05), and reflected the difference in dry matter intake; no differences (P \u3e 0.05) in feed efficiency (8.73:1 versus 8.71:1) were observed. However, the higher dry matter intake (DMI) of cattle fed diets with whey silage incorporated at 65.5% did not (P \u3e 0.05) translate into higher average daily gain (1.23 versus 1.18 kg d-1), resulting in a higher (P \u3c 0.05) feed to gain (7.00:1 versus 6.01:1) for the whey-based silage diets. Incorporation of whey silage in diets at 55% increased (P \u3e 0.05) the dry matter digestibility by 12%, whereas incorporation at 65.5% decreased (P \u3c 0.05) dry matter digestibility by 12% compared to control diets, with no differences (P \u3e 0.05) in percent neutral detergent fiber digestibility (NDFD) at either level. We conclude that whey silage can be included at between 55 and 65.5% of the total dry matter in diets with no adverse effects on production compared to cattle fed diets containing a combination of alfalfa hay, corn silage and wheat middlings

Grazing intensity impacts on pasture carbon and nitrogen flow

There is little information on the impact of grazing intensity on productivity and sustainability of intensively managed pastures in the humid, short-season parkland of the Canadian prairies. Our hypothesis was that above-ground productivity of dry matter, carbon, nitrogen, and in vitro digestible organic matter would be reduced proportionately with increasing grazing intensity. The study was conducted on a Typic Haplustoll at Lacombe, Alberta. Paddocks of meadow bromegrass (Bromus riparius Rhem.), replicated 4 times, were subjected to heavy, medium and light grazing intensities. Measurements and analyses were carried out for 3 years. Yields of dry matter, carbon, nitrogen, and in vitro digestible organic matter before and after grazing were determined and seasonal pools of above ground production, disappearance and residual were calculated. Concentrations of acid and neutral detergent fiber and lignin were also determined before and after grazing. Increasing grazing intensity tended to increase nitrogen and decrease fiber concentrations for available and residual forage. Heavy and medium grazing intensities produced 83 and 90% as much above ground dry matter and 87 and 90% above ground carbon as the light intensity. All disappearance pools were similar among grazing intensities except in vitro digestible organic matter, where heavy was 116% of light. Heavy grazing reduced the contribution of vegetative dry matter, in vitro digestible organic matter, carbon and nitrogen to the residual to 41, 50, 36, and 52% of that for light grazing. Adding estimated fecal-carbon to the residual significantly increased total residual carbon. Estimated fecal-carbon represented 68, 51, and 42% of all carbon inputs to litter for heavy, medium and light grazing, respectively. Grazing intensity did not affect estimated pools of excreted nitrogen, but increased estimated precent of nitrogen excreted as urine.The Journal of Range Management archives are made available by the Society for Range Management and the University of Arizona Libraries. Contact [email protected] for further information.Migrated from OJS platform August 202

The feasibility of feeding high levels of whey silage and effects on production in growing cattle

Two studies were conducted with the objective of evaluating the feasibility of using whey ensiled with wheat straw and wheat middlings (whey silage), fed at 98% of the diet and determine the levels of production that can be obtained by feeding it to growing cattle. In each study, the control diets contained a diet comprising of wheat middlings, alfalfa hay and corn silage and were isocaloric with the whey silage diets. The average daily gains and feed efficiencies of cattle fed on the whey silage diets were similar (P\u3e0.05) to the control diets. However, in the second study, dry matter intake was reduced (P\u3c0.05) in animals fed the whey silage diet compared to the control. Whey silage can be included at 98% of the total diet with no adverse effects on gain and feed efficiency. This study provides cattle producers with low cost feeding options that use crop residues and agricultural by products such as whey which can be ensiled and fed to growing cattle