Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa

Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of malaria epidemic using temperature and rainfall data. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between detection of the epidemic signal and evolution of the epidemic. Malaria data was collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda with temperature and rainfall data from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models. Results validate the additive and multiplicative models, which were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power

Biting behaviour of African malaria vectors : 1. Where do the main vector species bite on the human body?

BACKGROUND : Malaria control in Africa relies heavily on indoor vector management, primarily indoor residual spraying and insecticide treated bed nets. Little is known about outdoor biting behaviour or even the dynamics of indoor biting and infection risk of sleeping household occupants. In this paper we explore the preferred biting sites on the human body and some of the ramifications regarding infection risk and exposure management. METHODS : We undertook whole-night human landing catches of Anopheles arabiensis in South Africa and Anopheles gambiae s.s. and Anopheles funestus in Uganda, for seated persons wearing short sleeve shirts, short pants, and bare legs, ankles and feet. Catches were kept separate for different body regions and capture sessions. All An. gambiae s. l. and An. funestus group individuals were identified to species level by PCR. RESULTS : Three of the main vectors of malaria in Africa (An. arabiensis, An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus) all have a preference for feeding close to ground level, which is manifested as a strong propensity (77.3% – 100%) for biting on lower leg, ankles and feet of people seated either indoors or outdoors, but somewhat randomly along the lower edge of the body in contact with the surface when lying down. If the lower extremities of the legs (below mid-calf level) of seated people are protected and therefore exclude access to this body region, vector mosquitoes do not move higher up the body to feed at alternate body sites, instead resulting in a high (58.5% - 68.8%) reduction in biting intensity by these three species. CONCLUSIONS : Protecting the lower limbs of people outdoors at night can achieve a major reduction in biting intensity by malaria vector mosquitoes. Persons sleeping at floor level bear a disproportionate risk of being bitten at night because this is the preferred height for feeding by the primary vector species. Therefore it is critical to protect children sleeping at floor level (bednets; repellent-impregnated blankets or sheets, etc.). Additionally, the opportunity exists for the development of inexpensive repellent-impregnated anklets and/or sandals to discourage vectors feeding on the lower legs under outdoor conditions at night.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation through the Grand Challenges Explorations initiative.http://www.parasitesandvectors.comhb201

Early biting and insecticide resistance in the malaria vector Anopheles might compromise the effectiveness of vector control intervention in Southwestern Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Southwestern Uganda has high malaria heterogeneity despite moderate vector control and other interventions. Moreover, the early biting transmission and increased resistance to insecticides might compromise strategies relying on vector control. Consequently, monitoring of vector behaviour and insecticide efficacy is needed to assess the effectiveness of strategies aiming at malaria control. This eventually led to an entomological survey in two villages with high malaria prevalence in this region. METHODS: During rainy, 2011 and dry season 2012, mosquitoes were collected in Engari and Kigorogoro, Kazo subcounty, using human landing collection, morning indoor resting collection, pyrethrum spray collection and larval collection. Circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum sporozoites in female Anopheles mosquitoes was detected using ELISA assay. Bioassays to monitor Anopheles resistance to insecticides were performed. RESULTS: Of the 1,021 female Anopheles species captured, 62% (632) were Anopheles funestus and 36% (371) were Anopheles gambiae s.l. The most common species were Anopheles gambiae s.l. in Engari (75%) and A. funestus in Kigorogoro (83%). Overall, P. falciparum prevalence was 2.9% by ELISA. The daily entomological inoculation rates were estimated at 0.17 and 0.58 infected bites/person/night during rainy and dry season respectively in Engari, and 0.81 infected bites/person/night in Kigorogoro during dry season. In both areas and seasons, an unusually early evening biting peak was observed between 6 - 8 p.m. In Engari, insecticide bioassays showed 85%, 34% and 12% resistance to DDT during the rainy season, dry season and to deltamethrin during the dry season, respectively. In Kigorogoro, 13% resistance to DDT and to deltamethrin was recorded. There was no resistance observed to bendiocarb and pirimiphos methyl. CONCLUSIONS: The heterogeneity of mosquito distribution, entomological indicators and resistance to insecticides in villages with high malaria prevalence highlight the need for a long-term vector control programme and monitoring of insecticide resistance in Uganda. The early evening biting habits of Anopheles combined with resistance to DDT and deltamethrin observed in this study suggest that use of impregnated bed nets alone is insufficient as a malaria control strategy, urging the need for additional interventions in this area of high transmission

Determinants of the accuracy of rapid diagnostic tests in malaria case management: evidence from low and moderate transmission settings in the East African highlands

BACKGROUND: The accuracy of malaria diagnosis has received renewed interest in recent years due to changes in treatment policies in favour of relatively high-cost artemisinin-based combination therapies. The use of rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) based on histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2) synthesized by Plasmodium falciparum has been widely advocated to save costs and to minimize inappropriate treatment of non-malarial febrile illnesses. HRP2-based RDTs are highly sensitive and stable; however, their specificity is a cause for concern, particularly in areas of intense malaria transmission due to persistence of HRP2 antigens from previous infections. METHODS: In this study, 78,454 clinically diagnosed malaria patients were tested using HRP2-based RDTs over a period of approximately four years in four highland sites in Kenya and Uganda representing hypoendemic to mesoendemic settings. In addition, the utility of the tests was evaluated in comparison with expert microscopy for disease management in 2,241 subjects in two sites with different endemicity levels over four months. RESULTS: RDT positivity rates varied by season and year, indicating temporal changes in accuracy of clinical diagnosis. Compared to expert microscopy, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the RDTs in a hypoendemic site were 90.0%, 99.9%, 90.0% and 99.9%, respectively. Corresponding measures at a mesoendemic site were 91.0%, 65.0%, 71.6% and 88.1%. Although sensitivities at the two sites were broadly comparable, levels of specificity varied considerably between the sites as well as according to month of test, age of patient, and presence or absence of fever during consultation. Specificity was relatively high in older age groups and increased towards the end of the transmission season, indicating the role played by anti-HRP2 antibodies. Patients with high parasite densities were more likely to test positive with RDTs than those with low density infections. CONCLUSION: RDTs may be effective when used in low endemicity situations, but high false positive error rates may occur in areas with moderately high transmission. Reports on specificity of RDTs and cost-effectiveness analyses on their use should be interpreted with caution as there may be wide variations in these measurements depending upon endemicity, season and the age group of patients studied

Costs of early detection systems for epidemic malaria in highland areas of Kenya and Uganda

BACKGROUND: Malaria epidemics cause substantial morbidity and mortality in highland areas of Africa. The costs of detecting and controlling these epidemics have not been explored adequately in the past. This study presents the costs of establishing and running an early detection system (EDS) for epidemic malaria in four districts in the highlands of Kenya and Uganda. METHODS: An economic costing was carried out from the health service provider's perspective in both countries. Staff time for data entry and processing, as well as supervising and coordinating EDS activities at district and national levels was recorded and associated opportunity costs estimated. A threshold analysis was carried out to determine the number of DALYs or deaths that would need to be averted in order for the EDS to be considered cost-effective. RESULTS: The total costs of the EDS per district per year ranged between US$ 14,439 and 15,512. Salaries were identified as major cost-drivers, although their relative contribution to overall costs varied by country. Costs of relaying surveillance data between facilities and district offices (typically by hand) were also substantial. Data from Uganda indicated that 4% or more of overall costs could potentially be saved by switching to data transfer via mobile phones. Based on commonly used thresholds, 96 DALYs in Uganda and 103 DALYs in Kenya would need to be averted annually in each district for the EDS to be considered cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Results from this analysis suggest that EDS are likely to be cost-effective. Further studies that include the costs and effects of the health systems' reaction prompted by EDS will need to be undertaken in order to obtain comprehensive cost-effectiveness estimates

Variations in entomological indices in relation to weather patterns and malaria incidence in East African highlands: implications for epidemic prevention and control

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria epidemics remain a significant public health issue in the East African highlands. The aim of this study was to monitor temporal variations in vector densities in relation to changes in meteorological factors and malaria incidence at four highland sites in Kenya and Uganda and to evaluate the implications of these relationships for epidemic prediction and control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Mosquitoes were collected weekly over a period of 47 months while meteorological variables and morbidity data were monitored concurrently. Mixed-effects Poisson regression was used to study the temporal associations of meteorological variables to vector densities and of the latter to incidence rates of <it>Plasmodium falciparum</it>.</p> <p>Results</p> <p><it>Anopheles gambiae </it>s.s. was the predominant vector followed by <it>Anopheles arabiensis</it>. <it>Anopheles funestus </it>was also found in low densities. Vector densities remained low even during periods of malaria outbreaks. Average temperature in previous month and rainfall in previous two months had a quadratic and linear relationship with <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. density, respectively. A significant statistical interaction was also observed between average temperature and rainfall in the previous month. Increases in densities of this vector in previous two months showed a linear relationship with increased malaria incidence.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Although epidemics in highlands often appear to follow abnormal weather patterns, interactions between meteorological, entomological and morbidity variables are complex and need to be modelled mathematically to better elucidate the system. This study showed that routine entomological surveillance is not feasible for epidemic monitoring or prediction in areas with low endemicity. However, information on unusual increases in temperature and rainfall should be used to initiate rapid vector surveys to assess transmission risk.</p

The impact of stopping and starting indoor residual spraying on malaria burden in Uganda.

The scale-up of malaria control efforts has led to marked reductions in malaria burden over the past twenty years, but progress has slowed. Implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS) of insecticide, a proven vector control intervention, has been limited and difficult to sustain partly because questions remain on its added impact over widely accepted interventions such as bed nets. Using data from 14 enhanced surveillance health facilities in Uganda, a country with high bed net coverage yet high malaria burden, we estimate the impact of starting and stopping IRS on changes in malaria incidence. We show that stopping IRS was associated with a 5-fold increase in malaria incidence within 10 months, but reinstating IRS was associated with an over 5-fold decrease within 8 months. In areas where IRS was initiated and sustained, malaria incidence dropped by 85% after year 4. IRS could play a critical role in achieving global malaria targets, particularly in areas where progress has stalled