Economic tomography: the possibility to anticipate and respond to socio-economic crises

The article discusses an approach based on an original hypothesis related to the peculiarities of Russia’s development (on the one hand, its scale, the Russian mentality and a certain closeness of the economy; on the other hand, a significant dominant resource and human potential, and, as a consequence, a genuine role in the global economic community), the diagnosis of which (at the level of the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas) can be used to identify crises, provide an early assessment of threats to socio-economic development of regions as well as help to evaluate the state of the region over a 3 to 5 year period. In other words, in order to ensure that executives have enough time to mount a sufficiently rapid response to the crises and administrative errors and to reduce the impact of emerging threats. The aim of this paper is to present theoretical and methodological tools for the recognition of the early stages of emerging threats, allowing fewer losses to be experienced during the crisis period. Simulation experiments were carried out for the purpose of classifying previously occurring social and economic crises (9 possible variants were reviewed) and mathematically processed trajectories of change in the main indicators for the well-being of individuals and inhabited areas, taking the influence of various factors into account. On the basis of the authors’ proposed approach (referred to as economic tomography) an attempt is made to comprehensively assess the state of sample representative regions of Russia.The research has been supported by the Russian Science Foundation (project № 14–18–00574 'Information-analytical system "Anticrisis:" diagnostics of the regions, threat assessment and scenario forecasting for the preservation and strengthening of economic security and well-being of Russia')

PATHWAYS FROM RELIGIOSITY TO COUPLE’S SATISFACTION THROUGH RELATIONAL VIRTUES AND EQUALITY IN TWO CULTURES

To explore relational processes of couple’s satisfaction this study drew on the relational spirituality framework (Mahoney, 2010) in order to test a relational religiosity model to evaluate the effects of public, private, ideological, intellectual, and experiential religiosity that were mediated by relational virtues of commitment, sacrifice, forgiveness, and sanctification and relational equality on couple’s satisfaction in two cultures. Data for this component used convenience samples of English-speaking respondents (hereafter American sample; n = 1,529) and Russian-speaking respondents (hereafter Russian sample; n = 529). Results provided evidence to partially support relational religiosity model; specifically commitment, while a statistically significant intervening element, worked alongside other relational virtues such as (a) sanctification, as hypothesized, to positively mediate the indirect effect of ideological religiosity on couple’s satisfaction for the American men, (β = .17, 95% BCa CI [.11, .24], p \u3c .001); (b) sanctification, as hypothesized, to positively mediate the indirect effect of experiential religiosity for the Russian men (β = .39, 95% BCa CI [.12, .65], p = .002); and (c) sacrifice and forgiveness, contrary to the hypotheses, to negatively mediate the indirect (β = -.20, 95% BCa CI [-.35, -.06], p = .005) and total (β = -.27, 95% BCa CI [-.43, -.12], p = .001) effects of ideological religiosity on couple’s satisfaction among Russian women. The second approach to this topic followed the family systems perspective, to examine the effect of religiosity on respondents’ own and their partners’ satisfaction with the relationship via the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM) (Kenny, Kashy, & Cook, 2006). This dyadic approach used samples of 435 American couples (n = 870) and 129 Russian couples (n = 258). The results provided evidence to support an actor effect of husbands’ religiosity on their own couple’s satisfaction for the American (t = 2.00, p = .046, β = .15, 95% CI [.01, .29]) and Russian (t = 3.65, p \u3c .001, β = .45, 95% CI [.21, .70]) husbands. Moreover, APIM testing provided sufficient evidence to support a positive partner effect in that husband’s religiosity predicted their wives’ satisfaction with the relationship in the American (t = 2.06, p = .041, β = .17, 95% CI [.01, .33]) and Russian (t = 2.77, p = .006, β = .37, 95% CI [.11, .64]) couples. The parallels between the cultures strongly resembled existing cross-cultural dyadic scholarship providing compelling evidence to support cultural similarities rather than differences and suggesting that cross-cultural relational dissimilarities might not exist in the ways religiosity is linked to couple’s satisfaction; however, the differences between male and female respondents in each culture might be worth studying further. Additionally, this dissertation’s results and scholarship mentioned above reveal that religiosity and couple’s satisfaction may be indifferent to cultural variations suggesting these phenomena may be universal rather than culture-specific. Outcomes of this dissertation may benefit researchers, educators, policy makers, and practitioners who are interested in relationship virtues and religiosity\u27s effect on couple’s satisfaction, which is known to provide a positive connection to the psychological, social, physical, and spiritual well-being of couples

Russia’s Birth Rate Dynamics Forecasting

This article covers contemporary issues of Russia’s population reproduction, their causes and the state policy aimed to overcome the same. The urgency to fulfill the task related to assessment of the most probable future dynamics of Russia’s population birth rate in the context of a low child-woman ratio, and subject to an impact of pronatalist policies implemented by the state, is justified. In order to fulfill the task based on the crude birth rate behavior probability distribution function, a probabilistic assessment of future dynamics of Russia’s population reproduction has been carried out. Based on a modernized method suggested by Hurst, the following two forecasting paths of the crude birth rate dynamics have been built: the first path conforms to the scenario where a value of the crude birth rate is to tend to values between 8–10.5 births/1,000 people (probability is 0.182), in particular, through a negative external impact, the second path is to tend to values between 13–16.5 births/1,000 people (probability — 0.618), in particular, through a positive external impact. Notwithstanding that these scenarios significantly differ from each other, the paths of the crude birth rate dynamics for 2015–2041, corresponding to the reliable prediction time, forecasted according to the abovementioned scenarios, are virtually identical. The analysis of the findings allowed for the conclusion that the state demographic policy is not capable of having a significant impact on the future dynamics of the birth rate, substantially determined by the current situation and conjuncture shifts. These conclusions confirm the view prevailing in academic circles and suggesting that the state regulation of Russia’s demographic situation should be primarily focused on the improvement in health and a rise in the life expectancy of the population.The research has been prepared with the support of the Russian Science Foundation grant (Project No. 14-18-00574 “Information and analytic systems “Anticrisis”: diagnostics of the regions, threat evaluation and scenario forecasting to preserve and reinforce the welfare of Russia”)

Assessment of marital satisfaction in the Church of God in Izhevsk, Russian

https://place.asburyseminary.edu/ecommonsatsdissertations/1446/thumbnail.jp

The problem with peaking in the atmospheric magnetohydrodynamics. limiting cases

For the mathematical modelling of highly nonequilibrium and nonlinear processes in the atmosphere based on the equations of momentum and charge transfer, a thermodynamic approach is used with the model function of sources and sinks, which is characteristic for problems with peaking, where the maximum of the velocity distribution and charge distribution in space can increase without bound for a limited time. It allows to consider the general case, taking into account the interaction between the components of the velocity vector and the electromagnetic field in the presence of sources and sinks of momentum in a flat layer. As a limiting case, we consider the transfer of momentum when its source in a nonlinear medium leads to the regime with peaking, and the development of the regime generated by a nonlinear medium itself leads to self-organization. The competition between the process increment and the propagation of momentum and charge can result in appearance of new medium characteristics, such as the spatial diameter of tornado (lightning core), in which these processes balance each other. Another limiting case is the process of charge transfer in an atmosphere considered. As a result, a more general problem may be formulated, and a joint system of equations, which not only describes the behaviour of the velocity vector for an incompressible medium in the form of parabolic equation of momentum, but also takes into account the influence of electromagnetic field, may be derived

Evaluation of steady flow torques and pressure losses in a rotary flow control valve by means of computational fluid dynamics.

In this paper, a novel design of a rotary hydraulic flow control valve has been presented for high flow rate fluid power systems. High flow rates in these systems account for substantial flow forces acting on the throttling elements of the valves and cause the application of mechanically sophisticated multi-staged servo valves for flow regulation. The suggested design enables utilisation of single-stage valves in power hydraulics operating at high flow rates regimes. A spool driver and auxiliary mechanisms of the proposed valve design were discussed and selection criteria were suggested. Analytical expressions for metering characteristics as well as steady flow torques have been derived. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of steady state flow regimes was conducted to evaluate the hydraulic behaviour of the proposed valve. This study represents a special case of an independent metering concept applied to the design of power hydraulic systems with direct proportional valve control operating at flow rates above 150 litres per minute. The result gained using parametric CFD simulations predicted the induced torque and the pressure drops due to a steady flow. Magnitudes of these values prove that by minimising the number of spool’s mobile metering surfaces it is possible to reduce the flow-generated forces in the new generation of hydraulic valves proposed in this study. Calculation of the flow jet angles was analytically verified by measuring the deflection of the velocity vector using flow velocity field distribution, obtained during visualisation of the results of CFD simulations. The derived calculation formulas can predict metering characteristics, values of steady flow torques and jet angles for the specified design and geometry of the suggested valve. The proposed novel structure of the flow control valve promises to attain improved controllability, reliability and efficiency of the hydraulic control units of heavy mobile machinery operating at high flow rates regimes

Research of reactive ion and plasma-chemical etching effect on diamond coating surface morphology

The effect of treatment by reactive ion etching in an argon atmosphere, and hydrogen plasma etching in a glow discharge plasma on the surface of the diamond films was investigated. Diamond films were deposited by the Chemical Vapor Deposition method on the hard alloy VK-8 substrates. The crystallites direction under the influence of argon ion beam processing was changed by 45 degrees from the original. The surface morphology becomes more developed (an average value of 20%) by etching in a glow discharge plasma in an atmosphere of hydrogen. Raman spectroscopy, Scanning Electron Microscope and Atomic Force Microscopy were used to determine the phase and microstructure composition of deposited films

Friction analysis and modelling of a novel stepped rotary flow control valve

© 15th International Conference on Condition Monitoring and Machinery Failure Prevention Technologies, CM 2018/MFPT 2018. All rights reserved. High flow rate control is very important for different applications ranging from constructional, industrial, military and aerospace. Generally, hydraulic control relies on different types of valves. For example, poppet and spool valves have been implemented in Independent Metering (IM) system which is usually installed in mobile hydraulic machines such as excavators. Recently, a novel rotary flow control orifice has been developed to design a control valve for high flow rate applications, and a stepper motor was selected as the main actuator for this orifice to grant more accuracy and controllability. The coupling between these two main components requires analysis of the internal dynamical interactions and their effect on the performance. Friction torque is an important parameter to be considered in this design. The paper includes analysis and modelling of the friction torque in the orifice which affects the coupling, also it contains a model validation and evaluation resulted from friction practical measurements