Multivariate Time Series Analysis for Optimum Production Forecast: A Case Study of 7up Soft Drink Company in Nigeria

This study focuses on the establishment of an optimum forecast model that predicts future production trends of 7UP Bottling company. Sixty (60)months time series data of 7UP bottling company were used after ascertaining the presence of seasonal variation and trend components of the data to establish the multidimensional forecast model. Predictive Production rate model was developed using a general multivariate regression equation form. The monitoring schemes show values of MSE and MAD as 0.0177 and 0.0658 respectively giving a tracking signal of 0.0. These values established the multivariate forecast model as optimum approach in tracking demand and production trends in a production setup. The value of the standard deviation of distribution of errors of 0.0823 estimated with MAD also confirms the authenticity of this model. The responses shown in the graphics of this study clearly explains the mixed time series which definitely contains seasonal variation and trend components as established in this study. Also the coefficient of determination of 0.957956 explains about 97% fitness of the established model to production data. The trend component associated with time variable (Mtncod) causes production to increase by 0.002579KG/Month. Finally, this work adds to the growing body of literature on data-driven production and inventory management by utilizing historical data in the development of useful forecasting mathematical model.Keywords: production model, inventory management, multivariate timeseries, production forecas

Maternal mortality in a Transitional Hospital in Enugu, South East Nigeria

Nigeria has one of the highest maternal mortality ratios in the world. The study was to determine the trend of maternal mortality ratio in the hospital as it transits from a General through a Specialist to a Teaching hospital. It was a retrospective review of maternal deaths at Enugu State University Teaching Hospital Parklane, over its 5 year transition period (January 2004 to December 2008). There were 7146 live births and 60 maternal deaths giving an overall maternal mortality ratio (MMR) of 840/100,000 livebirths. The MMR rose from 411 to 1137/100 000 live births as a specialist hospital, with a decline to 625/100 000 as a Teaching hospital. Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia was the leading cause (29.63%) of maternal death. MMR was highest as a Specialist hospital due to limited manpower and inadequate facilities to properly manage the rising number of referred obstetric emergencies. Adequate preparations should be made before upgrading a hospital, to enable it cope with the challenges of managing referred obstetric emergencies (Afr J Reprod Health 2009; 13[4]:67-72)

The prevalence and bacteriology of a symptomatic bacteriuria among antenatal patients in Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital Nnewi; South Eastern Nigeria

Urinary tract infection in pregnancy leads to poor pregnancy outcome. Diagnosis and treatment of asymptomatic bacteriuria markedly improves pregnancy outcome as well as reduce the incidence of acutepyelonephritis. To determine the prevalence and bacteriology of asymptomatic bacteriuria among Antenatal patients in our centre, and to know if routine screening will be justifiable. This was a prospective study carried out between April and August 2008. Sample size was statistically determined.Women who consented were interviewed and mid stream urine samples were collected and processed in the microbiology laboratory, using standard microbiological methods. Out of 357 women studied, 65(18.21%) had significant bacteriuria. was the commonest isolate (25.6%), while was the least frequent isolate (3.66%). Women in third trimester had the highest prevalence (25.68%) while those in the first trimester had the least (15.79%).Women that had only primary education had the highest prevalence (27.50%) while those that had tertiary educationhad the least prevalence (21.10%). The prevalence of significant asymptomatic bacteriuria among the women studied was high.Screening of all the pregnant women and treatment will reduce the incidence and complications of overt urinary tract infection in pregnancy among these women

Maternal death and obstetric care audits in Nigeria: A systematic review of barriers and enabling factors in the provision of emergency care.

Acknowledgements We would like to thank Yutaka Osakabe for co-ordinating the retrieval of full text articles. The John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation supported this study, grant number 12-100074-000-INPPeer reviewedPublisher PD

Maternal and child health interventions in Nigeria: a systematic review of published studies from 1990 to 2014

BACKGROUND: Poor maternal and child health indicators have been reported in Nigeria since the 1990s. Many interventions have been instituted to reverse the trend and ensure that Nigeria is on track to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. This systematic review aims at describing and indirectly measuring the effect of the Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health (MNCH) interventions implemented in Nigeria from 1990 to 2014. METHODS: PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge were searched from 1990 to April 2014 whereas POPLINE® was searched until 16 February 2015 to identify reports of interventions targeting Maternal, Newborn, and Child Health in Nigeria. Narrative and graphical synthesis was done by integrating the results of extracted studies with trends of maternal mortality ratio (MMR) and under five mortality (U5MR) derived from a joint point regression analysis using Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey data (1990-2013). This was supplemented by document analysis of policies, guidelines and strategies of the Federal Ministry of Health developed for Nigeria during the same period. RESULTS: We identified 66 eligible studies from 2,662 studies. Three interventions were deployed nationwide and the remainder at the regional level. Multiple study designs were employed in the enrolled studies: pre- and post-intervention or quasi-experimental (n = 40; 61%); clinical trials (n = 6;9%); cohort study or longitudinal evaluation (n = 3;5%); process/output/outcome evaluation (n = 17;26%). The national MMR shows a consistent reduction (Annual Percentage Change (APC) = -3.10%, 95% CI: -5.20 to -1.00 %) with marked decrease in the slope observed in the period with a cluster of published studies (2004-2014). Fifteen intervention studies specifically targeting under-five children were published during the 24 years of observation. A statistically insignificant downward trend in the U5MR was observed (APC = -1.25%, 95% CI: -4.70 to 2.40%) coinciding with publication of most of the studies and development of MNCH policies. CONCLUSIONS: The development of MNCH policies, implementation and publication of interventions corresponds with the downward trend of maternal and child mortality in Nigeria. This systematic review has also shown that more MNCH intervention research and publications of findings is required to generate local and relevant evidence

Bioaccumulation Of Heavy Metals In The Catfish Chrysicthys Nigrodigitatus From Taylor Creek, Southern Nigeria

The discharge of liquid effluents either untreated or with only primary treatment into Etelebou Creek, a tributary of Taylor Creek has led to the extensive contamination of Taylor Creek by heavy metals. The catfish species, C. nigrodigitatus and other environmental segments were collected from five sites along Taylor Creek, southern Nigeria, and some metals determined by flame atomic absorption spectrophotometry. The concentration levels of the metals in C. nigrodigitatus were higher than values reported in the literature for fresh fish and may lead to a higher risk and harmful effects. The bivariate regression models relating metals in C. nigrodigitatus and metals in the surface waters were significant (R2 ≥ 0.7134). The Log (bio-concentration factors or BCF) of Cr and Zn in C. nigrodigitatus were the highest, whereas Ni was the lowest. The ecological distribution of the log (BCF) values was, for all the heavy metals, moderately stable over the Creek. All log-transformed biomagnification factors (BMF) in the Creek were positive, which indicates that the metal concentration was higher in C. nigrodigitatus than in suspended particulate matter (SPM). The absolute log (BMF) values of heavy metals can therefore be ranked in order of decreasing magnitude: Fe (4.06) > Zn (2.87) > Mn (2.59) > Cr (1.95) > Pb (1.90) > Ni (1.82) > Cd (1.55). This sequence indicates that toxic metals such as Cd, Cr and Pb are undergoing significant bio-reduction from SPM to C. nigrodigitatus. The degree ofcorrelation between the metals was different in C. nigrodigitatus, which suggests that the sources of the metals, polluting Taylor Creek were diverse

Prevalence of and attitude towards needlestick injuries among medical practitioners in Nnewi; South Eastern Nigeria

Study Design and Objective: This study was designed to determine the prevalence of needlestick injuries among medical practitioners inNnewi. To determine the predisposing factors and the attitude of the doctors to this occupational hazard with a view to recommending preventivemeasures and appropriate post exposure actions.Materials and Methods: The study population was the medical practitioners in Nnewi. Data was collected using a self-administered structuredquestionnaire covering 3 years period (January 2003 to December 2005).Results: The overall prevalence of needlestick injuries in the study population was 64. 6%, surgeons had significantly higher episodes ofneedlestick injuries than physicians, 89.3% and 47.1% respectively (P 10years(83.3%), than those that have practiced for less than10years(56.9%). (P< 0.05). 53.7% of the subjects took some post exposure measures, surprisingly only 6.1% reported to the appropriateauthority and 3.7% took any form of post exposure prophylaxis.The physicians recorded a higher percentage of correct attitude score (52.9%) than surgeons (40.5%).Conclusion: The high prevalence of needlestick injuries and the grossly inadequate post exposure measures among medical practitioners inNnewi necessitate the introduction of a comprehensive needlestick enlightenment and prevention programme

Women&rsquo;s perception of accuracy of ultrasound dating in late pregnancy: a challenge to prevention of prolonged pregnancy in a resource-poor Nigerian setting

Emmanuel O Ugwu,1 Godwin U Odoh,1 Cyril C Dim,1 Samuel N Obi,1 Euzebus C Ezugwu,1 Innocent I Okafor21Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Ituku/Ozalla, Enugu, Nigeria; 2Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, Enugu State University Teaching Hospital, Parklane, Enugu, NigeriaBackground: Expected date of delivery (EDD) is estimated from the last menstrual period (LMP) or ultrasound scan. Conflicts between these estimates especially on the part of the physician and his/her patient could pose a challenge to prevention of prolonged pregnancy. The objective of this study was to determine the perception and acceptability of menstrual dating (EDD derived from LMP) with regard to timing of labor induction for postdatism by pregnant women who have a late pregnancy (&ge;23 weeks&rsquo; gestation) ultrasound scan.Methods: This cross-sectional study included 443 consecutive pregnant women receiving antenatal care at two tertiary health institutions in Enugu, Nigeria, from January 1, 2013 to March 31, 2013.Results: The mean age of the women was 27.9&plusmn;2.41 (range 17&ndash;45) years. Most ultrasound scans (90.8%, 357/389) were carried out in late pregnancy, and 41.9% (167/389) were self-referred. The majority of the respondents (51.7%, 229/443) did not accept induction of labor for postdatism at a certain menstrual dating-derived gestational age of 40 weeks plus 10 days if the late pregnancy ultrasound scan dating was less. Predictors of this poor attitude to timing of induction of labor for postdatism included low educational level, low social class, and poor knowledge of the limitations of ultrasound scan dating in late pregnancy (P&lt;0.05).Conclusion: The worrisome confidence in ultrasound scan dating is a challenge to the prevention of prolonged pregnancy and its complications in our environment. Antenatal health education should discourage self-referral for ultrasound scan dating and emphasize its limitations in late pregnancy as well as the perinatal effects of prolonged pregnancy.Keywords: ultrasound dating, prolonged pregnancy, Nigeri

A Ten-Year Review of Ovarian Cancer in Enugu, South East Nigeria

Objective: To review the pattern and management of ovarian cancer over a ten-year period at the University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu. Methods: A retrospective review of cases of histologically diagnosed primary ovarian cancers from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2009. Results: Out of 20,227 gynaecological admissions during the study period, 200 cases of primary gynaecological cancers were involved. Ovarian cancer constituted 25.0% of all gynaecological malignancies giving an incidence rate of 1 per 405 gynaecological admissions per year. The mean age of cases at presentation was 45.4 ± 17.1years. Epithelial ovarian cancer constituted 68.0% of ovarian cancer. Approximately 60.0% of women who had epithelial ovarian cancer were aged 50 years or below. Parous women constituted 72.4% of epithelial ovarian cancer out of which 38.0% were grandmultiparous women. All the cancers in pre-menarcheal girls were germ cell tumours. Most of the cases had surgery and adjuvant chemotherapy. However, most patients (68.0%) had only one or two courses of cisplatinum based combination chemotherapy only to abandon further treatment. Conclusion: This study supports an emerging pattern of early onset of, and substantial involvement of multiparous women in, epithelial ovarian cancer among patients treated at the study centre. The management challenge posed by the pattern of presentation of a majority of cases is compounded by a trend towards abandonment of chemotherapy by most patients. Key Words: Review, Ovarian cancer, Enugu. Afrimedic Journal 2011;2(1):8-1