Development and validation of climate and ecosystem-based early malaria epidemic prediction models in East Africa

Process-based models were constructed for computing the risk of malaria epidemic using temperature and rainfall data. The model has a lead-time of two to four months between detection of the epidemic signal and evolution of the epidemic. Malaria data was collected from eight sites in Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda with temperature and rainfall data from meteorological stations closest to the source of the malaria data. The sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive power were used to validate the models. Results validate the additive and multiplicative models, which were shown to be robust and with high climate-based, early epidemic predictive power

Radio et catastrophes naturelles en Afrique

Les calamités naturelles, telles que la sécheresse et les inondations, peuvent avoir des conséquences extrêmement néfastes sur les économies des pays africains. L'existence, la diffusion et l’utilisation d’informations climatiques et météorologiques en temps voulu sont par conséquent d’une importance vitale dans le soutien des efforts nationaux de développement socioéconomique. Dans la pratique, ce vUn réseau de stations de radio amateur en Afrique fournit des services de prévision météo aux communautés rurales, et aide à réduire les conséquences néfast

Integrating indigenous knowledge in climate risk management to support community based adaptation : final technical report

Name(s) of Researcher/Members of Research Team: Prof. Laban Ogallo, Dr. Gilbert Ouma, Prof. Achola Pala, Dr. Gordon Wayumba, Nganyi Core Group, Dr. Maria Onyango, Patricia Ochieng', Dr. Joseph R Mukabana, Samuel Mwangi, Mr. Joseph Mbeva, Mr. Peter Nyamenya, Albert Owino, Prof. Kasege, Dr. Bernard Abon'go, Prof. Walgio OrwaLocal communities have developed indicators to forecast climatic events. For instance, the nesting of birds high on trees or of crocodiles on high ground near rivers, are signals of likely flooding in Swaziland, while the appearance of frequent and many spider webs are signs of good rainfall in Tanzania. The research project demonstrates a crucial need for integrating indigenous knowledge (IK) with modern day climate forecasts to support the coping of rural communities in extreme climate variability and adaptation to climate change. Climate scientists agree that the IK information is useful in downscaling larger scale meteorological features to local conditions for useful application

CLIPS: a radio project to turn the tide in Africa

Natural disasters such as droughts and floods can have devastating impacts on the economies of African countries. The availability, dissemination and application of timely climate and weather information are therefore vital in supporting national socio-economic development efforts. There are many problems, however, including the inadequate meteorological observation network, the lack of effective climate monitoring and weather prediction services, and generally poor communications facilities. Thus the most vulnerable groups of society, such as farmers and rural communities, are unable to receive timely climate and weather forecasts, and so are at the mercy of extreme weather conditions. To address these problems, and to close the knowledge gap between the producers and users of climate information, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has launched the global Climate Information and Prediction Services (CLIPS). In Africa, as in many other parts of the world, the producers are the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS). Each country has an NMHS station that provides national and regional forecasting services. Unfortunately, the numbers of technical staff and their capabilities vary from country to country, depending on the level of national development. This situation has led CLIPS members to review and make better use of existing information systems to provide basic climate forecasting services for rural communities, and thus help reduce the impacts of adverse weather conditions. One such system is the network of HAM [1] radio stations. A HAM radio station is a complete amateur radio station with its own frequency and network of devoted participants who use it to exchange various types of information. HAM uses wireless radio technology which is carried on numerous bands, extending from 1.8 MHz (a wavelength of about 160 metres) up to several hundred gigahertz (wavelengths in the millimetre range). The power of HAM radio lies in the fact it works when all other services fail. When an area is struck by floods, for example, the utility grid - including mobile phone towers and antennas - is likely to be destroyed over hundreds of square kilometres. During such emergencies, amateur radio is often the only means of communication between the communities in the affected area and the outside world. HAM radio therefore offers enormous potential for improving the surface weather observation network and information dissemination throughout Africa. The CLIPS project has decided to tap this potential and is exploring the possibilities of expanding its mandate to assist in the HAM radio-based collection and dissemination of climate information and prediction services. Ultimately, CLIPS aims to put in place a fully-fledged international HAM radio operator network to support the efforts of the NMHS. The NMHS units in Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda are already implementing a pilot project, called ´Enhanced Surface Observations by Voluntary Observers´. The first phase, which was successfully completed in September 2002, involved carrying out a survey of potential voluntary observers and HAM radio operators. The NMHS stations then organized a regional workshop to bring together the observers and operators as well as the producers of climate information. The participants were asked to assist in designing possible methods of improving the surface weather observation network across East Africa. This led to the identification of new observation sites located close to existing HAM radio stations. After the workshop, as part of a capacity building exercise, the HAM radio operators and voluntary observers received training in weather observation methods, and the value of weather and climate information and prediction services. In the next phase of the project a limited number of inexpensive, stand-alone surface observation systems will be installed at remote sites throughout the region. If this initial effort proves successful, CLIPS will consider expanding the network to cover other parts of Africa. [1] HAM is a contraction of the names of Albert Hyman, Bob Almy and Peggie Murray, who operated the Harvard Radio Club in 1908 and established an early standard for amateur radio. Professor Laban Ogallo is coordinator of the Drought Monitoring Centre in Nairobi, Kenya.Reaching out to farmers and rural communities, a network of amateur radio operators supports efforts to improve communication on droughts and floods throughout the continent

Climate change challenge : implications in development of Southern and Eastern Africa

Meeting: ESARO Seminar on Climate Change, 6 June 2008, Nairobi, KEAfrica is the most climate vulnerable continent on the globe. The presentation outlines challenges of climate change in sustainable development in terms of natural hazards, such as cyclones, windstorms, and extreme temperatures. Graphics show distribution of natural disaster fatalities by country and type of phenomenon. The presentation points to future calamities and the need for mitigation strategies

Science of the elders

This program aims to improve the capacity of African countries to adapt to climate change in ways that benefit the most vulnerable. Famous for their rainmaking skills, Kenya’s Nganyi clan are working with scientists to forecast the weather. One of the key objectives in working with the Nganyi is to make weather information available and accessible at the local level. The article reports on a team of scientists/researchers who view the elders as fellow scientists. The Nganyi gather information by keeping a close eye on various natural “shrines.” At these sacred sites where it is forbidden to cut trees, they monitor the patterns of climate-sensitive plants and animals