Impact Assessment of Technologies That Mitigate Adverse Circumstances: The Case of Disease-Resistant Beans in Honduras

Constructing appropriate counterfactual scenarios is an ongoing challenge for impact assessment of agricultural research. Using farm-level survey data from Honduras, this paper adapts the Heckman two-step procedure to construct the counterfactual to resistant variety (RV) bean yields by predicting imputed traditional variety yields of RV users.Crop Production/Industries,

Spillovers, Joint Ventures and Social Welfare in a Mixed Duopoly R&D Race

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

SHOULD THE PUBLIC SECTOR CONDUCT GENOMICS R&D?

The nature of the observed market structure and R&D competition in genomics research is used as the basis for a comparative analysis of research under a mixed oligopoly, pure oligopoly and monopoly when the timing of the innovation outcome is uncertain (as in an R&D race), the winner-take-all assumption is relaxed and the profits in later stages are a function of the R&D expenditures of prior stages. The sufficient conditions under which a mixed oligopoly performs more R&D than the pure oligopoly and monopoly markets are derived and are shown to be a function of a) that public firm's objective is strictly greater than in the winning state then in the losing state, b) profits for the winning and losing private firms in the private duopoly are equal, post innovation, and c) the objective function of the firms in the mixed duopoly are increasing in research faster than they are for firms in the other two cases. It is suggested that when these conditions are met, the public firm can play a role in increasing the level of research in genomics.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

ANALYSIS OF PROJECTS WITH PRICE EFFECTS, AND APPLICATION TO INNOVATION AND TECHNICAL CHANGE

Replaced with revised version of paper 04/21/06.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

PRIVATIZING MARKETS FOR HETEROGENEOUS, EXPERIENCE GOODS: COFFEE IN NORTHWEST CAMEROON

Reform and privatization of administratively controlled marketing parastatals is always a thorny issue. Reform of public coffee parastatals is one of the most fascinating-and trickiest-exercises in free-market development. Coffee, a heterogenous, experience good, undergoes several processing stages with imperfect quality control, leading to agency problems. Successful privatization must address these problems. This paper analyzes the reform and partial privatization of the North West Cooperative Association (NWCA) parastatal in Cameroon. A conceptual, principal-agent framework informs the analysis. In an interesting twist, the reforms structured the marketing chain so that farmers are the residual claimants to profits from international sales, in effect making them the principals. As is suggested by the conceptual framework, empirical work confirms that farmers as principals have reinvested in coffee quality. However, the evidence also shows that agency problems still exist at later stages of the marketing chain. This is consistent with the principal-agent framework, since incentive-compatible contracts are not used in this marketing chain. The paper concludes by drawing more general lessons about how incomplete information and incentive structure issues arising from imperfect markets might be handled within the context of market liberalization.Marketing,

The Impact of Agricultural Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Synthesis of Symposium Findings

The Symposium on the Impact of Technology on Agricultural Transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa funded by AID/AFR/ARTS and AID/RD/EID under the Michigan State University Food Security Cooperative Agreements, was held in Washington, D.C., Oct. 14-16, 1992. A primary purpose of the symposium was to present evidence which would either confirm or contradict the perception that the accomplishments of TDT were insufficient to justify continued funding. A secondary objective was to consider the adequacy of available analytical tools for impact assessment. The rate of return (ROR) is the most commonly used valuative measure of investments in technology development and transfer. Examined as a group, the estimated RORs support the proposition that African agricultural research has had people-level impacts, and that these impacts are large enough to justify the level of investment that led to the impacts. An important part of the impact assessment story is the analysis of factors that had a positive or negative effect on the impact of TDT. Five major factors emerged from the studies presented and comments by symposium participants: agroclimatic conditions, civil unrest, research system performance, policy, and markets. Progress has been made in moving forward with the process of TDT, in spite of adverse conditions. This progress includes enhancing the capabilities of national, regional and international institutions to generate new techniques, pushing forward the technology frontier, transferring technology, and increasing productivity both in farm production and post-harvest activities. Activities such as structural adjustment, improvements in agricultural and macroeconomic policy, greater reliance on democracy and capitalism, investments in infrastructure, and a greater willingness to work with the private sector have increased the potential for TDT to have significant impact. Given the importance of raising productivity in agriculture as a step towards agricultural transformation, continued investment in agricultural TDT is merited. The evidence of impact achieved from previous investments shows that those investments have paid off. Coupled with the evidence of beneficial changes in the macroeconomic policy environment in many countries, this provides the basis for expecting that future investments will pay off. What is perhaps unique about the symposium is the movement towards a commodity sector perspective as the next logical step toward including more demand-side considerations in the TDT agenda.International Development, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Downloads July 2008 - June 2009: 18,

Payoffs to Investments in Agricultural Technology in Sub-Saharan Africa

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Downloads July 2008-June 2009: 7,

PRIVATIZING MARKETS FOR HETEROGENOUS, EXPERIENCE GOODS: COFFEE IN NORTHWEST CAMEROON

Reform and privatization of administratively controlled marketing parastatals is always a thorny issue. Reform of public coffee parastatals is one of the most fascinating and trickiest exercises in free-market development. Coffee, a heterogenous, experience good, undergoes several processing stages with imperfect quality control, leading to agency problems. Successful privatization must address these problems. This paper analyzes the reform and partial privatization of the North West Cooperative Association (NWCA) parastatal in Cameroon. A conceptual, principal-agent framework informs the analysis. In an interesting twist, the reforms structured the marketing chain so that farmers are the residual claimants to profits from international sales, in effect making them the principals. As is suggested by the conceptual framework, empirical work confirms that farmers as principals have reinvested in coffee quality. However, the evidence also shows that agency problems still exist at later stages of the marketing chain. This is consistent with the principal-agent framework, since incentive-compatible contracts are not used in this marketing chain. The paper concludes by drawing more general lessons about how incomplete information and incentive structure issues arising from imperfect markets might be handled within the context of market liberalization.Marketing,

TECHNOLOGY VALUATION DISTRIBUTIONS WITH HETEROGENEOUS ADOPTERS

This paper examines technology benefit allocation between an innovating firm and heterogeneous technology adopters. Using a triangular distribution of adopter innovation value, we find that as the upper bound increases, optimal innovation price increases, but at a slower rate. Similarly, as the lower bound decreases, price decreases and producer benefits increase. Finally, greater producer heterogeneity leads to greater producer benefits from innovation in non-competitive markets. An empirical application of the model is considered, bovine somatotropin adoption on dairy farms. The model generates an intuitive explanation of the common finding that average adopters are making zero or negative profits.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Impact Assessment of African Agricultural Technology Development and Transfer: Synthesis of Findings and Lessons Learned

Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies, Downloads July 2008 - June 2009: 13,