Identification of malaria transmission and epidemic hotspots in the western Kenya highlands: its application to malaria epidemic prediction

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria in the western Kenya highlands is characterized by unstable and high transmission variability which results in epidemics during periods of suitable climatic conditions. The sensitivity of a site to malaria epidemics depends on the level of immunity of the human population. This study examined how terrain in the highlands affects exposure and sensitivity of a site to malaria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The study was conducted in five sites in the western Kenya highlands, two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu, Emutete), two V-shaped valleys (Marani, Fort-Ternan) and one plateau (Shikondi) for 16 months among 6-15 years old children. Exposure to malaria was tested using circum-sporozoite protein (CSP) and merozoite surface protein (MSP) immunochromatographic antibody tests; malaria infections were tested by microscopic examination of thick and thin smears, the children's homes were georeferenced using a global positioning system. Paired t-test was used to compare the mean prevalence rates of the sites, K-function was use to determine if the clustering of malaria infections was significant.</p> <p>Results and Discussion</p> <p>The mean antibody prevalence was 22.6% in Iguhu, 24% in Emutete, 11.5% in Shikondi, 8.3% in Fort-Ternan and 9.3% in Marani. The mean malaria infection prevalence was 23.3% in Iguhu, 21.9% in Emutete, 4.7% in Shikondi, 2.9% in Fort-Ternan and 2.4% in Marani. There was a significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence between the two valley systems, and between the two valley systems and the plateau (P < 0.05). There was no significant difference in the antibodies and malaria infection prevalence in the two U-shaped valleys (Iguhu and Emutete) and in the V-shaped valleys (Marani and Fort Ternan) (P > 0.05). There was 8.5- fold and a 2-fold greater parasite and antibody prevalence respectively, in the U-shaped compared to the V-shaped valleys. The plateau antibody and parasite prevalence was similar to that of the V-shaped valleys. There was clustering of malaria antibodies and infections around flat areas in the U-shaped valleys, the infections were randomly distributed in the V-shaped valleys and less clustered at the plateau.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study showed that the V-shaped ecosystems have very low malaria prevalence and few individuals with an immune response to two major malaria antigens and they can be considered as epidemic hotspots. These populations are at higher risk of severe forms of malaria during hyper-transmission seasons. The plateau ecosystem has a similar infection and immune response to the V-shaped ecosystems. The U-shaped ecosystems are transmission hotspots.</p

Clinical malaria case definition and malaria attributable fraction in the highlands of western Kenya

BACKGROUND: In African highland areas where endemicity of malaria varies greatly according to altitude and topography, parasitaemia accompanied by fever may not be sufficient to define an episode of clinical malaria in endemic areas. To evaluate the effectiveness of malaria interventions, age-specific case definitions of clinical malaria needs to be determined. Cases of clinical malaria through active case surveillance were quantified in a highland area in Kenya and defined clinical malaria for different age groups. METHODS: A cohort of over 1,800 participants from all age groups was selected randomly from over 350 houses in 10 villages stratified by topography and followed for two-and-a-half years. Participants were visited every two weeks and screened for clinical malaria, defined as an individual with malaria-related symptoms (fever [axillary temperature ≥ 37.5°C], chills, severe malaise, headache or vomiting) at the time of examination or 1–2 days prior to the examination in the presence of a Plasmodium falciparum positive blood smear. Individuals in the same cohort were screened for asymptomatic malaria infection during the low and high malaria transmission seasons. Parasite densities and temperature were used to define clinical malaria by age in the population. The proportion of fevers attributable to malaria was calculated using logistic regression models. RESULTS: Incidence of clinical malaria was highest in valley bottom population (5.0% cases per 1,000 population per year) compared to mid-hill (2.2% cases per 1,000 population per year) and up-hill (1.1% cases per 1,000 population per year) populations. The optimum cut-off parasite densities through the determination of the sensitivity and specificity showed that in children less than five years of age, 500 parasites per μl of blood could be used to define the malaria attributable fever cases for this age group. In children between the ages of 5–14, a parasite density of 1,000 parasites per μl of blood could be used to define the malaria attributable fever cases. For individuals older than 14 years, the cut-off parasite density was 3,000 parasites per μl of blood. CONCLUSION: Clinical malaria case definitions are affected by age and endemicity, which needs to be taken into consideration during evaluation of interventions

Changing Patterns of Malaria Epidemiology between 2002 and 2010 in Western Kenya: The Fall and Rise of Malaria

The impact of insecticide treated nets (ITNs) on reducing malaria incidence is shown mainly through data collection from health facilities. Routine evaluation of long-term epidemiological and entomological dynamics is currently unavailable. In Kenya, new policies supporting the provision of free ITNs were implemented nationwide in June 2006. To evaluate the impacts of ITNs on malaria transmission, we conducted monthly surveys in three sentinel sites with different transmission intensities in western Kenya from 2002 to 2010.Longitudinal samplings of malaria parasite prevalence in asymptomatic school children and vector abundance in randomly selected houses were undertaken monthly from February 2002. ITN ownership and usage surveys were conducted annually from 2004 to 2010. Asymptomatic malaria parasite prevalence and vector abundances gradually decreased in all three sites from 2002 to 2006, and parasite prevalence reached its lowest level from late 2006 to early 2007. The abundance of the major malaria vectors, Anopheles funestus and An. gambiae, increased about 5-10 folds in all study sites after 2007. However, the resurgence of vectors was highly variable between sites and species. By 2010, asymptomatic parasite prevalence in Kombewa had resurged to levels recorded in 2004/2005, but the resurgence was smaller in magnitude in the other sites. Household ITN ownership was at 50-70% in 2009, but the functional and effective bed net coverage in the population was estimated at 40.3%, 49.4% and 28.2% in 2010 in Iguhu, Kombewa, and Marani, respectively.The resurgence in parasite prevalence and malaria vectors has been observed in two out of three sentinel sites in western Kenya despite a high ownership of ITNs. The likely factors contributing to malaria resurgence include reduced efficacy of ITNs, insecticide resistance in mosquitoes and lack of proper use of ITNs. These factors should be targeted to avoid further resurgence of malaria transmission

Marked variation in MSP-119 antibody responses to malaria in western Kenyan highlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Assessment of malaria endemicity at different altitudes and transmission intensities, in the era of dwindling vector densities in the highlands, will provide valuable information for malaria control and surveillance. Measurement of serum anti-malarial antibodies is a useful marker of malaria exposure that indicates long-term transmission potential. We studied the serologic evidence of malaria endemicity at two highland sites along a transmission intensity cline. An improved understanding of the micro-geographic variation in malaria exposure in the highland ecosystems will be relevant in planning effective malaria control.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Total IgG levels to <it>Plasmodium falciparum </it>MSP-1₁₉were measured in an age-stratified cohort (< 5, 5-14 and ≥ 15 years) in 795 participants from an uphill and valley bottom residents during low and high malaria transmission seasons. Antibody prevalence and level was compared between different localities. Regression analysis was performed to examine the association between antibody prevalence and parasite prevalence. Age-specific MSP-1₁₉seroprevalence data was fitted to a simple reversible catalytic model to investigate the relationship between parasite exposure and age.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Higher MSP-1₁₉seroprevalence and density were observed in the valley residents than in the uphill dwellers. Adults (> 15 years) recorded high and stable immune response in spite of changing seasons. Lower responses were observed in children (≤ 15 years), which, fluctuated with changing seasons particularly in the valley residents. In the uphill population, annual seroconversion rate (SCR) was 8.3% and reversion rate was 3.0%, with seroprevalence reaching a plateau of 73.3% by age of 20. Contrary, in the valley bottom population, the annual SCR was 35.8% and the annual seroreversion rate was 3.5%, and seroprevalence in the population had reached 91.2% by age 10.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The study reveals the micro-geographic variation in malaria endemicity in the highland eco-system; this validates the usefulness of sero-epidemiological tools in assessing malaria endemicity in the era of decreasing sensitivity of conventional tools.</p

Productivity of Malaria Vectors from Different Habitat Types in the Western Kenya Highlands

BACKGROUND: Mosquito Larval Source Management (LSM) could be a valuable additional tool for integrated malaria vector control especially in areas with focal transmission like the highlands of western Kenya if it were not for the need to target all potential habitats at frequent intervals. The ability to determine the productivity of malaria vectors from identified habitats might be used to target LSM only at productive ones. METHODS: Each aquatic habitat within three highland sites in western Kenya was classified as natural swamp, cultivated swamp, river fringe, puddle, open drain or burrow pit. Three habitats of each type were selected in each site in order to study the weekly productivity of adult malaria vectors from February to May 2009 using a sweep-net and their habitat characteristics recorded. RESULTS: All surveyed habitat types produced adult malaria vectors. Mean adult productivity of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato in puddles (1.8/m(2)) was 11-900 times higher than in the other habitat types. However, puddles were the most unstable habitats having water at 43% of all sampling occasions and accounted for 5% of all habitats mapped in the study areas whereas open drains accounted for 72%. Densities of anopheline late instars larvae significantly increased with the presence of a biofilm but decreased with increasing surface area or when water was flowing. Taking stability and frequency of the habitat into account, puddles were still the most productive habitat types for malaria vectors but closely followed by open drains. CONCLUSION: Even though productivity of An. gambiae s.l. was greatest in small and unstable habitats, estimation of their overall productivity in an area needs to consider the more stable habitats over time and their surface extension. Therefore, targeting only the highly productive habitats is unlikely to provide sufficient reduction in malaria vector densities

A cohort study of Plasmodium falciparum infection dynamics in Western Kenya Highlands

Abstract Background The Kenyan highlands were malaria-free before the 1910s, but a series of malaria epidemics have occurred in the highlands of western Kenya since the 1980s. Longitudinal studies of the genetic structure, complexity, infection dynamics, and duration of naturally acquired Plasmodium falciparum infections are needed to facilitate a comprehensive understanding of malaria epidemiology in the complex Kenyan highland eco-epidemiological systems where malaria recently expanded, as well as the evaluation of control measures. Methods We followed a cohort of 246 children residing in 3 villages at altitudes 1430 - 1580 m in western Kenya. Monthly parasitological surveys were undertaken for one year, yielding 866 P. falciparum isolates that were analyzed using 10 microsatellite markers. Results Infection complexity and genetic diversity were high (HE = 0.787-0.816), with ≥83% of infections harboring more than one parasite clone. Diversity remained high even during the low malaria transmission season. There was no significant difference between levels of genetic diversity and population structure between high and low transmission seasons. Infection turn-over rate was high, with the average infection duration of single parasite genotypes being 1.11 months, and the longest genotype persistence was 3 months. Conclusions These data demonstrate that despite the relatively recent spread of malaria to the highlands, parasite populations seem to have stabilized with no evidence of bottlenecks between seasons, while the ability of residents to clear or control infections indicates presence of effective anti-plasmodial immune mechanisms