A Bayesian assessment of an approximate model for unconfined water flow in sloping layered porous media

The prediction of water table height in unconfined layered porous media is a difficult modelling problem that typically requires numerical simulation. This paper proposes an analytical model to approximate the exact solution based on a steady-state Dupuit–Forchheimer analysis. The key contribution in relation to a similar model in the literature relies in the ability of the proposed model to consider more than two layers with different thicknesses and slopes, so that the existing model becomes a special case of the proposed model herein. In addition, a model assessment methodology based on the Bayesian inverse problem is proposed to efficiently identify the values of the physical parameters for which the proposed model is accurate when compared against a reference model given by MODFLOW-NWT, the open-source finite-difference code by the U.S. Geological Survey. Based on numerical results for a representative case study, the ratio of vertical recharge rate to hydraulic conductivity emerges as a key parameter in terms of model accuracy so that, when appropriately bounded, both the proposed model and MODFLOW-NWT provide almost identical results

The ontogeny of antipredator behavior: age differences in California ground squirrels (Otospermophilus beecheyi) at multiple stages of rattlesnake encounters

Newborn offspring of animals often exhibit fully functional innate antipredator behaviors, but they may also require learning or further development to acquire appropriate responses. Experience allows offspring to modify responses to specific threats and also leaves them vulnerable during the learning period. However, antipredator behaviors used at one stage of a predator encounter may compensate for deficiencies at another stage, a phenomenon that may reduce the overall risk of young that are vulnerable at one or more stages. Few studies have examined age differences in the effectiveness of antipredator behaviors across multiple stages of a predator encounter. In this study, we examined age differences in the antipredator behaviors of California ground squirrels (Otospermophilus beecheyi) during the detection, interaction, and attack stages of Pacific rattlesnake (Crotalus oreganus) encounters. Using free-ranging squirrels, we examined the ability to detect free-ranging rattlesnakes, snake-directed behaviors after discovery of a snake, and responses to simulated rattlesnake strikes. We found that age was the most important factor in snake detection, with adults being more likely to detect snakes than pups. We also found that adults performed more tail flagging (a predator-deterrent signal) toward snakes and were more likely to investigate a snake’s refuge when interacting with a hidden snake. In field experiments simulating snake strikes, adults exhibited faster reaction times than pups. Our results show that snake detection improves with age and that pups probably avoid rattlesnakes and minimize time spent in close proximity to them to compensate for their reduced reaction times to strikes

Modeling Farm-Level Crop Insurance Demand with Panel Data

A random-effects, binomial probit model is applied to data for a panel of Kansas wheat farms to examine Multiple Peril Crop Insurance demand. A theoretical model is developed which suggests inclusion of the moments of both market return and the return to insurance. Empirical results indicate that the first and second moments of both market return and the returns to insurance are significant. The price elasticity of demand is estimated to be −0.65. Preseason weather variables when included in the models were not found to be significant, failing to support the hypothesis of intertemporal adverse selection. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

An Expected-Indemnity Approach to the Measurement of Moral Hazard in Crop Insurance

A definition of moral hazard in multiple peril crop insurance is proposed that focuses on expected indemnities rather than input use. Five years of production and insurance data for a panel of Kansas wheat farms is used to empirically test for this type of moral hazard. Results suggest that moral hazard affects multiple peril crop insurance indemnities in poor production years but that no significant moral hazard occurs in years when growing conditions are favorable. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.