From the financial crisis to the economic crisis The impact of the financial trouble of 2007-2008 on the growth of seven advanced countries

The financial crisis started in the United States in 2007 on the subprime mortgage market and, then, gradually spread to all financial markets and strongly impacted growth in the main advanced countries through the years 2008 and 2009. Given its scope and its subsequent uncertainty, we discuss the capacity of macroeconometric models estimated on the past to quantify its various transmission channels. We try to measure the total impact of the crisis on the economy of seven advanced countries and on the euro area as a whole using the macroeconomic multinational model NiGEM. During the years 2008 and 2009, Germany suffered from a particularly strong drop in world trade, which would explain more than a half of the effect of the crisis measured in this way in 2009. The United Kingdom and the United States may especially have been affected by wealth effects and a strong drop in their inner demand. This drop may partly have been due to credit tightening. Japan seems to be the most affected country in 2009: the drop in foreign trade was exacerbated by the appreciation of the yen and investment seems to have strongly over-reacted to the fall in activity. A contrario, the fact that France suffered from a less marked drop in output in 2009 might be explained by an absence of over-reaction in economic behaviours and less sensitivity to the fall in world trade.financial crisis, simulation, macroeconometric model, macro-financial linkages

The MESANGE model: re-estimation on National Accounts base 2000 / Part 2 Version with chained-linked volumes

Mesange is a medium-size quarterly macro-econometric model of the French economy (about 500 equations, three sectors). The model describes short-term Keynesian dynamics and its long-term equilibrium is driven by supply-side determinants. Its reestimation on data from the national accounts base 2000 with fixed-base volumes is presented in a recent working paper (Klein and Simon, 2010). This first version of the model has been optimized for simulation use. Other applications of the Mesange model (short-term forecasting, analyses of the past) required its adaptation to the published data from the quarterly accounts with chained-linked volumes, as well as the integration of the recent crisis episode. A second version of the Mesange model has, therefore, been developed for this purpose. This version is presented in this working paper. First, the problems raised for macroeconomic modelling by national accounts with chained-linked volumes are explained and the solutions chosen to adapt the model to these new conventions are discussed. The applications of the version of the model with chained-linked volumes are, then, explained and illustrated with examples. Last, the main reestimated equations are detailed. The differences with respect to the version of the model with fixed-base volumes are commented. They stem from estimations based on non-identical data, but also from the different uses made of the two versions of Mesange and the resulting various needs and constraints that have conditioned the methodological choices that have been made. As for the version of the model with chained-linked volumes, priority has been given to the quality of the adjustment to the data rather than to the underlying theoretical framework. Nonetheless, the philosophy and general structure of the two versions of the model remain very much alike.macroeconometric model, estimation, chained-linked volumes, short-term forecasting, contribution analysis

Intergenerational inequalities since baby-boom

Cohorts born until the late 1940s benefited from a clear generational progress: from one generation to the next, the conditions for entering the labour market were more favourable, living standards increased regularly, access to education and homeownership was more common. These progresses strongly slowed down and even stopped, for generations born in the 1950s and 1960s. Early in their life course, the latter had to face the two oil shocks and the bad economic context that followed. The most recent generations are experiencing a mixed picture. Several years of good economic performance at the turn of the 2000s helped to increase again their standard of living in comparison to previous generations at the same age. Then, they benefited from low interest rates that facilitated again access to the property, despite rising property prices. However, this improvement appears to be very dependent on the macroeconomic environment, which can easily turn around. Inequalities between generations go together with inequalities within generations. In particular, access to employment is closely linked to educational level. Graduate people are more protected from unemployment and get a stable job more easily, but such an improvement is at the cost of a downgrading as regards wages and employment position. Non-graduates, meanwhile, are more dependent on economic conditions, not only at the end of their studies but also during the beginning of their careers. Finally, the fragility of this generational progress, and the increased importance of intergenerational transfers of wealth, could possibly lead to a widening of the gap between social classes or social origins. For instance, since the beginning of the 2000s, the access of younger generations to property has been improving again but the gap in property rates between social categories has been increasing.intergenerational inequalities, social inequalities, cohorts

Correction: Pulsed moxifloxacin for the prevention of exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Acute exacerbations contribute to the morbidity and mortality associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). This proof-of-concept study evaluates whether intermittent pulsed moxifloxacin treatment could reduce the frequency of these exacerbations. METHODS: Stable patients with COPD were randomized in a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial to receive moxifloxacin 400 mg PO once daily (N = 573) or placebo (N = 584) once a day for 5 days. Treatment was repeated every 8 weeks for a total of six courses. Patients were repeatedly assessed clinically and microbiologically during the 48-week treatment period, and for a further 24 weeks' follow-up. RESULTS: At 48 weeks the odds ratio (OR) for suffering an exacerbation favoured moxifloxacin: per-protocol (PP) population (N = 738, OR 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.565-0.994, p = 0.046), intent-to-treat (ITT) population (N = 1149, OR 0.81, 95% CI 0.645-1.008, p = 0.059), and a post-hoc analysis of per-protocol (PP) patients with purulent/mucopurulent sputum production at baseline (N = 323, OR 0.55, 95% CI 0.36-0.84, p = 0.006).There were no significant differences between moxifloxacin and placebo in any pre-specified efficacy subgroup analyses or in hospitalization rates, mortality rates, lung function or changes in St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) total scores. There was, however, a significant difference in favour of moxifloxacin in the SGRQ symptom domain (ITT: -8.2 vs -3.8, p = 0.009; PP: -8.8 vs -4.4, p = 0.006). Moxifloxacin treatment was not associated with consistent changes in moxifloxacin susceptibility. There were more treatment-emergent, drug related adverse events with moxifloxacin vs placebo (p < 0.001) largely due to gastrointestinal events (4.7% vs 0.7%). CONCLUSIONS: Intermittent pulsed therapy with moxifloxacin reduced the odds of exacerbation by 20% in the ITT population, by 25% among the PP population and by 45% in PP patients with purulent/mucopurulent sputum at baseline. There were no unexpected adverse events and there was no evidence of resistance development. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00473460 (ClincalTrials.gov)