Improving Accuracy of River Flow Forecasting Using LSSVR with Gravitational Search Algorithm

River flow prediction is essential in many applications of water resources planning and management. In this paper, the accuracy of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS), model 5 regression tree (M5RT), and conventional multiple linear regression (CMLR) is compared with a hybrid least square support vector regression-gravitational search algorithm (HLGSA) in predicting monthly river flows. In the first part of the study, all three regression methods were compared with each other in predicting river flows of each basin. It was found that the HLGSA method performed better than the MARS, M5RT, and CMLR in river flow prediction. The effect of log transformation on prediction accuracy of the regression methods was also examined in the second part of the study. Log transformation of the river flow data significantly increased the prediction accuracy of all regression methods. It was also found that log HLGSA (LHLSGA) performed better than the other regression methods. In the third part of the study, the accuracy of the LHLGSA and HLGSA methods was examined in river flow estimation using nearby river flow data. On the basis of results of all applications, it was found that LHLGSA and HLGSA could be successfully used in prediction and estimation of river flow.</jats:p

Assessing the Potential of Deep Learning for Emulating Cloud Superparameterization in Climate Models with Real-Geography Boundary Conditions

We explore the potential of feed-forward deep neural networks (DNNs) for emulating cloud superparameterization in realistic geography, using offline fits to data from the Super Parameterized Community Atmospheric Model. To identify the network architecture of greatest skill, we formally optimize hyperparameters using ~250 trials. Our DNN explains over 70 percent of the temporal variance at the 15-minute sampling scale throughout the mid-to-upper troposphere. Autocorrelation timescale analysis compared against DNN skill suggests the less good fit in the tropical, marine boundary layer is driven by neural network difficulty emulating fast, stochastic signals in convection. However, spectral analysis in the temporal domain indicates skillful emulation of signals on diurnal to synoptic scales. A close look at the diurnal cycle reveals correct emulation of land-sea contrasts and vertical structure in the heating and moistening fields, but some distortion of precipitation. Sensitivity tests targeting precipitation skill reveal complementary effects of adding positive constraints vs. hyperparameter tuning, motivating the use of both in the future. A first attempt to force an offline land model with DNN emulated atmospheric fields produces reassuring results further supporting neural network emulation viability in real-geography settings. Overall, the fit skill is competitive with recent attempts by sophisticated Residual and Convolutional Neural Network architectures trained on added information, including memory of past states. Our results confirm the parameterizability of superparameterized convection with continents through machine learning and we highlight advantages of casting this problem locally in space and time for accurate emulation and hopefully quick implementation of hybrid climate models.Comment: 32 Pages, 13 Figures, Revised Version Submitted to Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems April 202

Suspended sediment modeling using a heuristic regression method hybridized with kmeans clustering

The accurate estimation of suspended sediments (SSs) carries significance in determining the volume of dam storage, river carrying capacity, pollution susceptibility, soil erosion potential, aquatic ecological impacts, and the design and operation of hydraulic structures. The presented study proposes a new method for accurately estimating daily SSs using antecedent discharge and sediment information. The novel method is developed by hybridizing the multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS) and the Kmeans clustering algorithm (MARS–KM). The proposed method’s efficacy is established by comparing its performance with the adaptive neuro-fuzzy system (ANFIS), MARS, and M5 tree (M5Tree) models in predicting SSs at two stations situated on the Yangtze River of China, according to the three assessment measurements, RMSE, MAE, and NSE. Two modeling scenarios are employed; data are divided into 50–50% for model training and testing in the first scenario, and the training and test data sets are swapped in the second scenario. In Guangyuan Station, the MARS–KM showed a performance improvement compared to ANFIS, MARS, and M5Tree methods in term of RMSE by 39%, 30%, and 18% in the first scenario and by 24%, 22%, and 8% in the second scenario, respectively, while the improvement in RMSE of ANFIS, MARS, and M5Tree was 34%, 26%, and 27% in the first scenario and 7%, 16%, and 6% in the second scenario, respectively, at Beibei Station. Additionally, the MARS–KM models provided much more satisfactory estimates using only discharge values as inputs

Beach nourishment for coastal aquifers impacted by climate change and population growth using machine learning approaches

Availability of data and material: Upon request.Code availability: Upon request.Groundwater in coastal regions is threatened by saltwater intrusion (SWI). Beach nourishment is used in this study to manage SWI in the Biscayne aquifer, Florida, USA, using a 3D SEAWAT model nourishment considering the future sea level rise and freshwater over-pumping. The present study focused on the development and comparative evaluation of seven machine learning (ML) models, i.e., additive regression (AR), support vector machine (SVM), reduced error pruning tree (REPTree), Bagging, random subspace (RSS), random forest (RF), artificial neural network (ANN) to predict the SWI using beach nourishment. The performance of ML models was assessed using statistical indicators such as coefficient of determination (R2), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), means absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and root relative squared error (RRSE) along with the graphical inspection (i.e., Radar and Taylor diagram). The findings indicate that applying SVM, Bagging, RSS, and RF models has great potential in predicting the SWI values with limited data in the study area. The RF model emerged as the best fit and closely matched observed values; it obtained R2 (0.999), NSE (0.999), MAE (0.324), RRSE (0.209), and RMSE (0.416) during the testing process. The present study concludes that the RF model could be a valuable tool for accurate predictions of SWI and effective water management in coastal areas.This study did not receive any funding

Relative energetics and structural properties of zirconia using a self-consistent tight-binding model

We describe an empirical, self-consistent, orthogonal tight-binding model for zirconia, which allows for the polarizability of the anions at dipole and quadrupole levels and for crystal field splitting of the cation d orbitals. This is achieved by mixing the orbitals of different symmetry on a site with coupling coefficients driven by the Coulomb potentials up to octapole level. The additional forces on atoms due to the self-consistency and polarizabilities are exactly obtained by straightforward electrostatics, by analogy with the Hellmann-Feynman theorem as applied in first-principles calculations. The model correctly orders the zero temperature energies of all zirconia polymorphs. The Zr-O matrix elements of the Hamiltonian, which measure covalency, make a greater contribution than the polarizability to the energy differences between phases. Results for elastic constants of the cubic and tetragonal phases and phonon frequencies of the cubic phase are also presented and compared with some experimental data and first-principles calculations. We suggest that the model will be useful for studying finite temperature effects by means of molecular dynamics.Comment: to be published in Physical Review B (1 march 2000