Numerical modeling of the subaerial landslide source of the 22 December 2018 Anak Krakatoa volcanic tsunami, Indonesia

The eruption of the Anak Krakatoa volcano (Indonesia) in December 2018 produced a destructive tsunami with maximum runup of 13 m killing 437 people. Since the occurrence of this rare tsunami, it has been a challenge as how to model this tsunami and to reconstruct the network of coastal observations. Here, we apply a combination of qualitative physical modeling and wavelet analyses of the tsunami as well as numerical modeling to propose a source model. Physical modeling of a volcano flank collapse showed that the initial tsunami wave mostly involves a pure-elevation wave. We identified initial tsunami period of 6.3–8.9 min through Wavelet analysis, leading to an initial tsunami dimension of 1.8–7.4 km. Twelve source models were numerically modelled with source dimensions of 1.5–4 km and initial tsunami amplitudes of 10–200 m. Based on the qualities of spectral and amplitude fits between observations and simulations, we constrained the tsunami source dimension and initial amplitude in the ranges of 1.5–2.5 km and 100–150 m, respectively. Our best source model involves potential energy of 7.14 × 1013–1.05 × 1014 J equivalent to an earthquake of magnitude 6.0–6.1. The amplitude of the final source model is consistent with the predictions obtained from published empirical equations.Royal Society, Great Britain Sasakawa Foundatio

Kidney Development in the Absence of Gdnf and Spry1 Requires Fgf10

GDNF signaling through the Ret receptor tyrosine kinase (RTK) is required for ureteric bud (UB) branching morphogenesis during kidney development in mice and humans. Furthermore, many other mutant genes that cause renal agenesis exert their effects via the GDNF/RET pathway. Therefore, RET signaling is believed to play a central role in renal organogenesis. Here, we re-examine the extent to which the functions of Gdnf and Ret are unique, by seeking conditions in which a kidney can develop in their absence. We find that in the absence of the negative regulator Spry1, Gdnf, and Ret are no longer required for extensive kidney development. Gdnf−/−;Spry1−/− or Ret−/−;Spry1−/− double mutants develop large kidneys with normal ureters, highly branched collecting ducts, extensive nephrogenesis, and normal histoarchitecture. However, despite extensive branching, the UB displays alterations in branch spacing, angle, and frequency. UB branching in the absence of Gdnf and Spry1 requires Fgf10 (which normally plays a minor role), as removal of even one copy of Fgf10 in Gdnf−/−;Spry1−/− mutants causes a complete failure of ureter and kidney development. In contrast to Gdnf or Ret mutations, renal agenesis caused by concomitant lack of the transcription factors ETV4 and ETV5 is not rescued by removing Spry1, consistent with their role downstream of both RET and FGFRs. This shows that, for many aspects of renal development, the balance between positive signaling by RTKs and negative regulation of this signaling by SPRY1 is more critical than the specific role of GDNF. Other signals, including FGF10, can perform many of the functions of GDNF, when SPRY1 is absent. But GDNF/RET signaling has an apparently unique function in determining normal branching pattern. In contrast to GDNF or FGF10, Etv4 and Etv5 represent a critical node in the RTK signaling network that cannot by bypassed by reducing the negative regulation of upstream signals

Cigarette smoking, genetic polymorphisms and colorectal cancer risk: the Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study

Background: It is uncertain whether smoking is related to colorectal cancer risk. Cytochrome P-450 CYP1A1, glutathione-S-transferase (GST) and NAD(P)H:quinone oxidoreductase 1 (NQO1) are important enzymes in the metabolism of tobacco carcinogens, and functional genetic polymorphisms are known for these enzymes. We investigated the relation of cigarette smoking and related genetic polymorphisms to colorectal cancer risk, with special reference to the interaction between smoking and genetic polymorphism. Methods: We used data from the Fukuoka Colorectal Cancer Study, a population-based case-control study, including 685 cases and 778 controls who gave informed consent to genetic analysis. Interview was conducted to assess lifestyle factors, and DNA was extracted from buffy coat. Results: In comparison with lifelong nonsmokers, the odds ratios (OR) of colorectal cancer for <400, 400-799 and ≥800 cigarette-years were 0.65 (95 % confidence interval [CI], 0.45-0.89), 1.16 (0.83-1.62) and 1.14 (0.73-1.77), respectively. A decreased risk associated with light smoking was observed only for colon cancer, and rectal cancer showed an increased risk among those with ≥400 cigarette-years (OR 1.60, 95 % CI 1.04-2.45). None of the polymorphisms under study was singly associated with colorectal cancer risk. Of the gene-gene interactions studied, the composite genotype of CYP1A1*2A or CYP1A1*2C and GSTT1 polymorphisms was associated with a decreased risk of colorecta

Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) Mw 6.6 earthquake and tsunami of 20 July 2017: a test for the Mediterranean tsunami warning system

Various Tsunami Service Providers (TSPs) within the Mediterranean Basin supply tsunami warnings including CAT-INGV (Italy), KOERI-RETMC (Turkey) and NOA/HLNTWC (Greece). The 20 July 2017 Bodrum-Kos (Turkey-Greece) earthquake (Mw 6.6) and tsunami provided an opportunity to assess the response from these TSPs. Although the Bodrum-Kos tsunami was moderate (e.g. runup of 1.9 m) with little damage to properties, it was the first noticeable tsunami in the Mediterranean Basin since the 21 May 2003 western Mediterranean tsunami. Tsunami waveform analysis revealed that the trough-to-crest height was 34.1 cm at the near-field tide gauge station of Bodrum (Turkey). Tsunami period band was 2-30 min with peak periods at 7-13 min. We proposed a source fault model for this tsunami with the length and width of 25 and 15 km and uniform slip of 0.4 m. Tsunami simulations using both nodal planes produced almost same results in terms of agreement between tsunami observations and simulations. Different TSPs provided tsunami warnings at 10 min (CAT-INGV), 19 min (KOERI-RETMC) and 18 min (NOA/HL-NTWC) after the earthquake origin time. Apart from CAT-INGV, whose initial Mw estimation differed 0.2 units with respect to the final value, the response from the other two TSPs came relatively late compared to the desired warning time of ~10 min, given the difficulties for timely and accurate calculation of earthquake magnitude and tsunami impact assessment. It is argued that even if a warning time of ~10 min was achieved, it might not have been sufficient for addressing near-field tsunami hazards. Despite considerable progress and achievements made within the upstream components of NEAMTWS (North East Atlantic, Mediterranean and Connected seas Tsunami Warning System), the experience from this moderate tsunami may highlight the need for improving operational capabilities of TSPs, but more importantly for effectively integrating civil protection authorities into NEAMTWS and strengthening tsunami education programs