Must . . . stay . . . strong!

This is the fourth installment in our trilogy of papers on epistemic modality.It is a recurring matra that epistemic must creates a statement that is weaker than the corresponding flat-footed assertion: It must be raining vs. It’s raining. Contrary to classic discussions of the phenomenon such as by Karttunen, Kratzer, and Veltman, we argue that instead of having a weak semantics, must presupposes the presence of an indirect inference or deduction rather than of a direct observation. This is independent of the strength of the claim being made. Epistemic must is therefore quite similar to evidential markers of indirect evidence known from languages with rich evidential systems. We work towards a formalization of the evidential component, relying on a structured model of information states (analogous to some models used in the belief dynamics literature). We explain why in many contexts, one can perceive a lack of confidence on the part of the speaker who uses must

Predictors of stable return-to-work in non-acute, non-specific spinal pain: low total prior sick-listing, high self prediction and young age. A two-year prospective cohort study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Non-specific spinal pain (NSP), comprising back and/or neck pain, is one of the leading disorders in long-term sick-listing. During 2000-2004, 125 Swedish primary-care patients with non-acute NSP, full-time sick-listed 6 weeks-2 years, were included in a randomized controlled trial to compare a cognitive-behavioural programme with traditional primary care. This prospective cohort study is a re-assessment of the data from the randomized trial with the 2 treatment groups considered as a single cohort. The aim was to investigate which baseline variables predict a stable return-to-work during a 2-year period after baseline: objective variables from function tests, socioeconomic, subjective and/or treatment variables. Stable return-to-work was a return-to-work lasting for at least 1 month from the start of follow-up.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p><it>Stable return-to-work </it>was the outcome variable, the above-mentioned factors were the predictive variables in multiple-logistic regression models, one per follow-up at 6, 12, 18 and 24 months after baseline. The factors from univariate analyzes with a <it>p</it>-value of at most .10 were included. The non-significant variables were excluded stepwise to yield models comprising only significant factors (<it>p </it>< .05). As the comparatively few cases made it risky to associate certain predictors with certain time-points, we finally considered the predictors which were represented in at least 3 follow-ups. They are presented with odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Three variables qualified, all of them represented in 3 follow-ups: <it>Low total prior sick-listing </it>(including all diagnoses) was the strongest predictor in 2 follow-ups, 18 and 24 months, OR 4.8 [1.9-12.3] and 3.8 [1.6-8.7] respectively, <it>High self prediction </it>(the patients' own belief in return-to-work) was the strongest at 12 months, OR 5.2 [1.5-17.5] and <it>Young age </it>(max 44 years) the second strongest at 18 months, OR 3.5 [1.3-9.1].</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In primary-care patients with non-acute NSP, the strong predictors of stable return-to-work were 2 socioeconomic variables, <it>Low total prior sick-listing </it>and <it>Young age</it>, and 1 subjective variable, <it>High self-prediction</it>. Objective variables from function tests and treatment variables were non-predictors. Except for <it>Young age</it>, the predictors have previously been insufficiently studied, and so our study should widen knowledge within clinical practice.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Trial registration number for the original trial NCT00488735.</p

Subacute and chronic, non-specific back and neck pain: cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation versus primary care. A randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the industrial world, non-specific back and neck pain (BNP) is the largest diagnostic group underlying sick-listing. For patients with subacute and chronic (= full-time sick-listed for 43 – 84 and 85 – 730 days, respectively) BNP, cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation was compared with primary care. The specific aim was to answer the question: within an 18-month follow-up, will the outcomes differ in respect of sick-listing and number of health-care visits?</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>After stratification by age (≤ 44/≥ 45 years) and subacute/chronic BNP, 125 Swedish primary-care patients were randomly allocated to cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation (rehabilitation group) or continued primary care (primary-care group). Outcome measures were <it>Return-to-work share </it>(percentage) and <it>Return-to-work chance </it>(hazard ratios) over 18 months, <it>Net days </it>(crude sick-listing days × degree), and the number of <it>Visits </it>(to physicians, physiotherapists etc.) over 18 months and the three component six-month periods. Descriptive statistics, Cox regression and mixed-linear models were used.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>All patients: <it>Return-to-work share </it>and <it>Return-to-work chance </it>were equivalent between the groups. <it>Net days </it>and <it>Visits </it>were equivalent over 18 months but decreased significantly more rapidly for the rehabilitation group over the six-month periods (<it>p </it>< .05). Subacute patients: <it>Return-to-work share </it>was equivalent. <it>Return-to-work chance </it>was significantly greater for the rehabilitation group (hazard ratio 3.5 [95%CI1.001 – 12.2]). <it>Net days </it>were equivalent over 18 months but decreased significantly more rapidly for the rehabilitation group over the six-month periods and there were 31 days fewer in the third period. <it>Visits </it>showed similar though non-significant differences and there were half as many in the third period. Chronic patients: <it>Return-to-work share, Return-to-work chance </it>and <it>Net days </it>were equivalent. <it>Visits </it>were equivalent over 18 months but tended to decrease more rapidly for the rehabilitation group and there were half as many in the third period (non-significant).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The results were equivalent over 18 months. However, there were indications that cognitive-behavioural rehabilitation in the longer run might be superior to primary care. For subacute BNP, it might be superior in terms of sick-listing and health-care visits; for chronic BNP, in terms of health-care visits only. More conclusive results concerning this possible long-term effect might require a longer follow-up.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>NCT00488735.</p

A chromosome conformation capture ordered sequence of the barley genome

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The Impact of Public Budgets on Overall Productivity Growth

To fulfil their tasks, governments rely on public expenditures and taxes. Both influence the incentives and shape the decisions and actions of private economic agents. As governments resort to both instruments simultaneously, their combined theoretical impact on economic performance is a priori indeterminate. Clarification can only come from empirical evaluations. This paper reviews the recent literature trying to quantify the impact of fiscal policies on productivity and growth. Unfortunately, this survey shows that the empirical literature too is inconclusive: although the growth and composition of public expenditures and taxes as well as the fiscal stance seem to have some effect in the short run, their long-run implications cannot easily be quantified because of, e.g., reverse causation and crowding-out effects. The empirical evidence on the growth effects of government size points at a non-linear relationship: For small governments additional public expenditures seem to have a positive impact on growth, while for large governments further additions tend to be growth-retarding. It is an open question, however, where the optimum is located

Interelement and Multi-Station Concentration Evidence for Large Scale Aerosol Sulfur Transport across Sweden

The concentrations of sulfur and several more elements were measured in a network of six sites in southern Sweden. High time resolution samples were taken using a continuous filter sampler and analysed by particle induced X-ray emission (PIXE). Simultaneous increases in the sulfur concentrations were seen along the network due to the inflow of polluted air masses. High sulfur concentrations generally occurred during south-westerly to easterly air flow. Some of the episodes, distinguished by their shorter duration and their elevated vanadium and nickel concentrations, are suggested to be of local origin