Quantum probability: A new method for modelling travel behaviour

There has been an increasing effort to improve the behavioural realism of mathematical models of choice, resulting in efforts to move away from random utility maximisation (RUM) models. Some new insights have been generated with, for example, models based on random regret minimisation (RRM, μ-RRM). Notwithstanding work using for example Decision Field Theory (DFT), many of the alternatives to RUM tested on real-world data have however only looked at only modest departures from RUM, and differences in results have consequently been small. In the present study, we address this research gap again by investigating the applicability of models based on quantum theory. These models, which are substantially different from the state-of-the-art choice modelling techniques, emphasise the importance of contextual effects, state dependence, interferences and the impact of choice or question order. As a result, quantum probability models have had some success in better explaining several phenomena in cognitive psychology. In this paper, we consider how best to operationalise quantum probability into a choice model. Additionally, we test the quantum model frameworks on a best/worst route choice dataset and demonstrate that they find useful transformations to capture differences between the attributes important in a most favoured alternative compared to that of the least favoured alternative. Similar transformations can also be used to efficiently capture contextual effects in a dataset where the order of the attributes and alternatives are manipulated. Overall, it appears that models incorporating quantum concepts hold significant promise in improving the state-of-the-art travel choice modelling paradigm through their adaptability and efficient modelling of contextual changes

Democracy Promotion: Comparing African and Asian Experiences

In the wake of the Third Wave Wave of democracy, the EU developed democracy promotion policies toward African and Asian countries in the form of negative linkage (posing political conditions for economic aid) or positive linkage (supporting democratic reforms). The literature on democracy promotion points to four issues affecting this policy domain: competing political or economic interests, the degree of linkage and leverage, the presence of a normative consensus and the choice of a positive or negative linkage strategy. While there are significant differences in timing and kind of democratic transition in Sub-Sahara Africa and Southeast Asia, in both regions democracy still faces significant challenges. Policies toward both regions show significant similarities and differences: in both regions, democracy promotion suffers from competing political or economic interests, which is particularly visible in the material on two large countries from each region. The linkages and leverage between the EU and Sub-Sahara Africa are higher than in Souteast Asia, and the normative framework for Africa is developed more than in Asia. The EU is rather timid toward Southeast Asia compared to Sub-Sahara Africa, reflecting the presence of the 'Asian values' debate and lower linkage and leverage. In both regions, democracy promotion faces severe challenges due to difficult internal conditions. If donors wish to contribute to democratization, the positive linkage strategy holds more promise, but foremost, they need to be more consistent in choosing democracy over other political or economic interests.The Institutions of Politics; Design, Workings, and implications ( do not use, ended 1-1-2020