The Issues of Mismodelling Gravitational-Wave Data for Parameter Estimation

Bayesian inference is used to extract unknown parameters from gravitational wave signals. Detector noise is typically modelled as stationary, although data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors is not stationary. We demonstrate that the posterior of estimated waveform parameters is no longer valid under the assumption of stationarity. We show that while the posterior is unbiased, the errors will be under- or overestimated compared to the true posterior. A formalism was developed to measure the effect of the mismodelling, and found the effect of any form of non-stationarity has an effect on the results, but are not significant in certain circumstances. We demonstrate the effect of short-duration Gaussian noise bursts and persistent oscillatory modulation of the noise on binary-black-hole-like signals. In the case of short signals, non-stationarity in the data does not have a large effect on the parameter estimation, but the errors from non-stationary data containing signals lasting tens of seconds or longer will be several times worse than if the noise was stationary. Accounting for this limiting factor in parameter sensitivity could be very important for achieving accurate astronomical results, including an estimation of the Hubble parameter. This methodology for handling the non-stationarity will also be invaluable for analysis of waveforms that last minutes or longer, such as those we expect to see with the Einstein Telescope.Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures. Comments welcom

First-order transition between a small-gap semiconductor and a ferromagnetic metal in the isoelectronic alloys FeSi1−x_{1-x}Gex_x

The contrasting groundstates of isoelectronic and isostructural FeSi and FeGe can be explained within an extended local density approximation scheme (LDA+U) by an appropriate choice of the onsite Coulomb repulsion, $U$ on the Fe-sites. A minimal two-band model with interband interactions allows us to obtain a phase diagram for the alloys FeSi$_{1-x}$Ge$_{x}$. Treating the model in a mean field approximation, gives a first order transition between a small-gap semiconductor and a ferromagnetic metal as a function of magnetic field, temperature, and concentration, $x$. Unusually the transition from metal to insulator is driven by broadening, not narrowing, the bands and it is the metallic state that shows magnetic order.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

XMM-Newton spectral and timing analysis of the faint millisecond pulsars PSR J0751+1807 and PSR J1012+5307

We present XMM-Newton MOS imaging and PN timing data of the faint millisecond pulsars PSR J0751+1807 and PSR J1012+5307. We find 46 sources in the MOS field of view of PSR J0751+1807 searching down to an unabsorbed flux limit of 3 x 10^-15 ergs cm^-2 s^-1 (0.2-10.0 keV). We present, for the first time, the X-ray spectra of these two faint millisecond pulsars. We find that a power law model best fits the spectrum of PSR J0751+1807, Gamma=1.59+/-0.20, with an unabsorbed flux of 4.4 x 10^-14 ergs cm^-2 s^-1 (0.2-10.0 keV). A power law is also a good description of the spectrum of PSR J1012+5307, Gamma=1.78+/-0.36, with an unabsorbed flux of 1.2 x 10^-13 ergs cm^-2 s^-1 (0.2-10.0 keV). However, a blackbody model can not be excluded as the best fit to this data. We present some evidence to suggest that both of these millisecond pulsars show pulsations in this X-ray band. We find some evidence for a single broad X-ray pulse for PSR J0751+1807 and we discuss the possibility that there are two pulses per spin period for PSR J1012+5307.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Analytical Solution of the Off-Equilibrium Dynamics of a Long Range Spin-Glass Model

We study the non-equilibrium relaxation of the spherical spin-glass model with p-spin interactions in the $N \rightarrow \infty$ limit. We analytically solve the asymptotics of the magnetization and the correlation and response functions for long but finite times. Even in the thermodynamic limit the system exhibits `weak' (as well as `true') ergodicity breaking and aging effects. We determine a functional Parisi-like order parameter $P_d(q)$ which plays a similar role for the dynamics to that played by the usual function for the statics.Comment: 8 pages, Roma preprin

Development and validation of a risk score for chronic kidney disease in HIV infection using prospective cohort data from the D:A:D study.

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice

Scaling Law and Aging Phenomena in the Random Energy Model

We study the effect of temperature shift on aging phenomena in the Random Energy Model (REM). From calculation on the correlation function and simulation on the Zero-Field-Cooled magnetization, we find that the REM satisfies a scaling relation even if temperature is shifted. Furthermore, this scaling property naturally leads to results obtained in experiment and the droplet theory.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures, to be submitted to J. Phys. Soc. Jp

Dynamical simulation of spin-glass and chiral-glass orderings in three-dimensional Heisenberg spin glasses

Spin-glass and chiral-glass orderings in three-dimensional Heisenberg spin glasses are studied with and without randaom magnetic anisotropy by dynamical Monte Carlo simulations. In isotropic case, clear evidence of a finite-temperature chiral-glass transition is presented. While the spin autocorrelation exhibits only an interrupted aging, the chirality autocorrelation persists to exhibit a pronounced aging effect reminisecnt of the one observed in the mean-field model. In anisotropic case, asymptotic mixing of the spin and the chirality is observed in the off-equilibrium dynamics.Comment: 4 pages including 5 figures, LaTex, to appear in Phys. Rev. Let

Memory Effect, Rejuvenation and Chaos Effect in the Multi-layer Random Energy Model

We introduce magnetization to the Multi-layer Random Energy Model which has a hierarchical structure, and perform Monte Carlo simulation to observe the behavior of ac-susceptibility. We find that this model is able to reproduce three prominent features of spin glasses, i.e., memory effect, rejuvenation and chaos effect, which were found recently by various experiments on aging phenomena with temperature variations.Comment: 10 pages, 14 figures, to be submitted to J. Phys. Soc. Jp