The Evolution of University Access Programmes in Ireland

The aim of this report is to explore the historical development of third level access programmes in Ireland, that is, programmes aimed at improving access to third level education by the socio-economically disadvantaged. One key objective is to locate the UCD higher education access programme – New ERA – within the context of developments in national policy and access initiatives in Ireland. The report also presents a brief overview of previous evaluations of targeted initiatives in Ireland as well as barriers to Higher Education as outlined by Lynch & O Riordan’s 1996 study which provided the framework for the development of New ERA. Section 2 provides a definition of ‘access’ and ‘disadvantage’. Section 3 discusses the development of relevant policy on access to higher education. Section 4 examines previous evaluations of targeted initiatives. Section 5 describes the evolution of New ERA and section 6 places the New ERA programme in the context of tackling barriers to access as outlined by Lynch & O’Riordan. Section 7 focuses on current and possible future developments in the New ERA access programme and finally section 8 concludes.

Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi, studies in San Francisco Bay, Monterey Bay, and the Gulf of the Farallones, July 1982 to March 1983

Herring stocks were hydroacoustically surveyed and sampled in San Francisco Bay from November 1982 to March 1983. Twelve discrete herring schools were identified, all of which spawned between November 7 and February 23. One additional school was found in the Bay in March but showed no evidence of spawning. Total biomass estimate from hydroacoustic surveys was 67,040 tons. Based on MRR biomass estimates from spawned egg counts, an additional 10,000 tons may have spawned in November and December without being detected hydroacoustically. The largest schools occurred in January and February. Hydroacoustic estimates of biomass for individual schools during the season ranged from 270 to 22,300 tons. Sixty-seven samples, containing a total of 12,232 herring, were collected with variable mesh gill net and midwater trawl or obtained from the commercial roundhaul and gill net fisheries. In general, a trend was observed of decreasing mean size and age as the season progressed. Schools spawning in November and December consisted primarily of 4-, 5-, 6-, and 7-yr-old fish. Schools sampled from January to March were predominantly 2-, 3-, 4-, and 5-yr-old herring. The 1978, 1979, and 1980 yr classes (ages 5, 4, and 3 yr) were strong, comprising up to 90% of the samples. The 1981 yr class (2-yr olds) was relatively weak. Abundant rainfall and resultant low salinity in San Francisco Bay surface waters apparently delayed or prevented herring from spawning in February and March. A relationship may exist between relative abundance of young-of-the-year fish, as noted from midwater trawl samples collected by the Department's Bay-Delta Study, and the resultant year class strength of newly recruited 2-yr-old herring in San Francisco Bay's spawning stocks. (57pp.

Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi, studies in San Francisco and Tomales Bays, April 1987 to March 1988

Herring schools were surveyed hydroacoustically and sampled in San Francisco Bay from late October 1987 to March 1988. Nine large schools (greater than 1000 tons) and four smaller ones were detected. Total acoustic biomass estimate, using a combination of echo integration and "visual integration" methods, was 71,110 tons. Improved acoustic calibration parameters resulted in this estimate being close to the spawn escapement-plus-catch estimate of 68,881 tons. However, the two biomass survey methods ere complementary and, when used together, provide a more accurate estimate of the spawning population than either method alone. Eighty-two samples, containing a total of 16,316 herring, were collected with variable-mesh gill net, midwater trawl, or obtained from the roundhaul fishery. Mean body length decreased by more then 20 mm from the beginning to the end of the spawning season. Sex ratios favored males in November and December, while females were more abundant in February and March. The 1982 through 1986 year classes (6- through 2-yr olds) contributed approximately 98% by weight and number to the total 1987-88 spawning biomass in San Francisco Bay. Herring year classes aged 7 and older each comprised no more then 1% of any school. Above average recruitment occurred for the 1986 year class. Recruitment may not be complete for some year classes until age 3 yr. This was particularly evident for the 1985 year clear. (72pp.

Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi, studies in San Francisco Bay, April 1986 to March 1987

Herring schools were surveyed hydroacoustically and sampled in San Francisco Bay from late October 1986 to March 1987. Eight large schools (greater than 1000 tons each) spawned from December to February and seven smaller schools were detected throughout the spawning season. Total acoustic biomass estimate using a "visual integration" technique was 40,930 tons, and it was determined from spawn escapement and commercial landings that an additional 2240 tons were not detected. This is a slight increase from last season's total of approximately 42,200 tons. For the first time, biomass was also estimated using echo integration equipment. A total biomass was obtained of 33,050 tons, including herring not detected acoustically. This estimate must be considered preliminary and subject to revision after target strength of San Francisco Bay herring is determined. Eighty-seven samples, containing a total of 13,125 herring, were collected with variable-mesh gill net and midwater trawl or obtained from the roundhaul and gill net fisheries. Mean body length (BL) of sampled herring decreased by about 20 mm from the beginning to the end of the spawning season. A combination of variable-mesh gill net and midwater trawl samples for a particular school closely approximates mean BL and age composition data from unbiased roundhaul samples. Age-weight and age-length relationships were average to above average compared with those of the previous two seasons. The 1982 year class exhibited unusually good growth, with a mean BL of 202.8 mm for herring aged from stratified random samples. The 1982 through 1985 year classes (5- through 2-yr olds) contributed 97% by number and 95% by weight to the total 1986-87 spawning biomass in San Francisco Bay. Good recruitment has occurred during the past four seasons. The weak 1981 year class contributed little to the total biomass as 6-yr olds. Average catch per tow of young-of-the-year (YOY) herring is a potential index of abundance for recruitment 18 months later as 2-yr olds. Estimated recruitment has only varied by 15% during the past three seasons and does not reflect the magnitude or trend in YOY catches in the bay. (85pp.

Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi, experimental roe-on-kelp open pound fishery studies in San Francisco Bay, December 1987 to February 1988

The experimental open pound herring roe-on-kelp (ROK) fishery was studied in San Francisco Bay from mid December 1987 to mid February 1988. Five different harvests were observed and sampled. A total of 19.7 tons of Macrocystis sp. kelp covered with herring eggs was processed during this period. Kelp harvested from the Santa Barbara Channel Islands was transported to San Francisco Bay for hanging on the pounds. Weather conditions at the channel islands affected the condition and dimensions of the harvested kelp. Once suspended on the pounds in bay waters, the cut kelp deteriorated in 8 to 10 d. Based on our sampling, an average of 0.98 tons of kelp with a total blade surface area of 3031 m2 was suspended from each pound. ROK was sampled at the shoreside processing facility. Densities of attached eggs ranged from light (less than three layers) to heavy (more than six layers) for the five different spawns. Egg coverage on each pound also varied; kelp towards the middle portion of the pound received heavier deposition of eggs. Average weight increase from egg deposition, per blade, was 780% with the kelp weighing an average of 12.2% of the total. An average 13.2% by weight was trimmed during processing. A multiplication factor of 0.206 should be used to convert individual roe herring allotments to ROK allotments. Standard plastic totes containing processed ROK averaged 1783 lb total gross weight. Totes contained an average of 49.7% ROK by weight. Samples of roe-on-kelp increased an average of 10.9% in weight after brining during processing. (35pp.

A Model of Cross-Country House Prices (228.91 KB PDF)

The widespread nature of the recent international house price boom suggests that the underlying forces behind this sustained price increase may be common across countries. Many OECD countries have, over the past decade, witnessed sustained increases in living standards while housing affordability has further improved in recent years with the low interest rate environment experienced by many of these countries. In this paper we propose a theoretical model of house price determination that is driven by changes in income and interest rates. In particular, the current level of income and interest rates determine how much an individual can borrow from financial institutions to purchase housing and ultimately this is a key driver of house prices. The model is applied to a panel of 16 OECD countries from 1980 to 2005 using both single country-by-country and panel econometric approaches. Our results support the existence of a long-run relationship between actual house prices and the amount individuals can borrow and we find plausible and statistically significant adjustment, across countries, to this long run equilibrium.

Identifying and Forecasting House Price Dynamics in Ireland

While increased attention has, of late, focussed on models of house prices, few,if any, studies have examined house prices from a purely forecasting perspective. However, the need for accurate and timely forecasts of house prices has grown as the rate of house price inflation is more and more important to policy discussions such as those governing decisions on inflation. This is further underscored with the development of financial markets products based on houseprice index. In this paper, we propose that a simple univariate moving average (MA) model can provide optimal forecasts of Irish house price inflation when compared with a suite of standard forecasting and structural house price models. This result echoes similar recent findings for forecasts of US inflation rate.

US Monetary Announcements and Irish Stockmarket Volatility

We investigate the influence of foreign monetary policy decisions on the volatility of the Irish stock market. Specifically, we examine the influence of US monetary policy announcements on the ISEQ. We find evidence of the so called calm before the storm i.e. there appears to be a decline in volatility on the day prior to an FOMC meeting and a subsequent increase in volatility after the results of such meetings are made known. We also find evidence to suggest that ISEQ volatility is influenced by surprise changes in US monetary policy. Moreover, US monetary surprises appear to affect Irish stock return volatility asymmetrically. In particular, higher than expected US federal funds, tend to increase Irish stock return volatility. This paper represents an important step in addressing the issues of spillover identification between the US and the Irish stock market.

Retail Interest Rate Pass-Through - The Irish Experience

In this paper, we examine the extent to which changes in the money market interest rate are passed through to a number of retail lending rates between 1980 and 2001. In addition, we analyse the speed of adjustment of these lending rates with respect to such changes in the money market rate. Our main findings are - (1) pass-through from the money market rate to lending rates is not complete (2) the speed of adjustment varies quite considerably across alternative lending rates and (3) there has been significant structural change in the relationship between the money market rate and lending rates both in terms of pass-through and speed of adjustment during this period.

Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing

After 10 years of unprecedented increases in both prices and activity levels, the Irish housing market appears to be entering a period of some uncertainty. In the early part of 2007, Irish house prices, for the first time in recent history, experienced negative growth rates - leading indicators within the housing sector would suggest that house building is already beginning to contract, with future levels expected to be somewhat below the record level of construction in 2006. The sustained increase in housing construction prompted by the rapid increase in prices has resulted in the Irish construction sector assuming a position of considerable importance within the overall economy. Arguably, any significant slowdown in housing activity could have far-reaching domestic consequences. In this paper, we use a recently developed model of the housing sector to gauge what the structural level of demand is for Irish housing.