Diffident Dissident: How Civil Society Influences Armed Intrastate Conflict and Political Violence

The U.S government has for many years extended rhetorical and material support for civil society organizations in many developing country contexts. Part of this support is justified on the basis that it reduces civil conflicts and political violence. This dissertation features three empirical analyses that assess the grounds for such assumptions, including whether the strength of civil society influences the onset of civil conflicts, how civil conflicts unfold (i.e., predominantly violent or nonviolent), and the severity of violence during armed intrastate conflicts. The first and second papers, which employ a large-N statistical analysis complemented by an examination of the case of South Africa during the 1980s, draw on interdependence theory to explain how loss aversion incentivizes well established and economically integrated civil society groups to avoid civil conflict or adhere to mass nonviolent protest methods. The third paper evaluates whether armed rebel groups with organizational roots in civil society have advantages in developing rebel governance and controlling information about their operations that reduce their targeting of civilians and fatalities in battles with government forces. Analysis of armed insurgencies from 1988-2017 finds negligible support for these propositions. Together these essays suggest that policymakers recalibrate their broad expectations regarding civil society’s role in political violence

Legal harvest and illegal trade: Trends, challenges, and options in khat production in Ethiopia

The production of khat in Ethiopia has boomed over the last two decades, making the country the world's leading source. Khat is now one of Ethiopia's largest crops by area of cultivation, the country's second largest export earner, and an essential source of income for millions of Ethiopian farmers. Consumption has also spread from the traditional khat heartlands in the eastern and southern regions of Ethiopia to most major cities. This steady growth in production and use has unfolded under negligible government support or regulation. Meanwhile, khat, which releases a stimulant when chewed, is considered an illicit drug in an increasing number of countries. Drawing on government data on khat production, trade, and seizures as well as research on the political, socioeconomic, and development effects of plant-based illicit narcotics industries, this commentary identifies possible considerations and scenarios for Ethiopia as the country begins to manage rising khat production, domestic consumption, and criminalization abroad. Deeply embedded in social and cultural practices and a major source of government and agricultural revenue, Ethiopian policymakers have few enviable choices. Criminalization abroad raises a small but not insignificant possibility that previously nonexistent linkages between khat and transnational organized crime and trafficking networks will emerge. Likewise, more stringent regulation of khat in Ethiopia could merge with lingering political cleavages and anti-government sentiments, exacerbating low-level domestic conflicts