Analysis of Sector Led Improvement of Children and Young People’s Services

This paper was commissioned by the Association of Directors of Children’s Services (ADCS) National Performance and Information Management Group (NPIMG) to support the work of ADCS to evaluate and assess the impact of Sector Led Improvement of Children and Young People’s Services, and to explore the possibility of designing and developing (with ADCS and other partners) an ‘Early Warning’ model. The objective is to identify when and where the performance of Children and Young People’s Services is moving in the wrong direction. We undertake pre-post testing and difference in difference analysis, the latter allows us to use control data to ensure that external factors affecting all regions are considered

A Kernel Technique for Forecasting the Variance-Covariance Matrix

The forecasting of variance-covariance matrices is an important issue. In recent years an increasing body of literature has focused on multivariate models to forecast this quantity. This paper develops a nonparametric technique for generating multivariate volatility forecasts from a weighted average of historical volatility and a broader set of macroeconomic variables. As opposed to traditional techniques where the weights solely decay as a function of time, this approach employs a kernel weighting scheme where historical periods exhibiting the most similar conditions to the time at which the forecast if formed attract the greatest weight. It is found that the proposed method leads to superior forecasts, with macroeconomic information playing an important role.Nonparametric, variance-covariance matrix, volatility forecasting, multivariate

A Cholesky-MIDAS model for predicting stock portfolio volatility

This paper presents a simple forecasting technique for variance covariance matrices. It relies significantly on the contribution of Chiriac and Voev (2010) who propose to forecast elements of the Cholesky decomposition which recombine to form a positive definite forecast for the variance covariance matrix. The method proposed here combines this methodology with advances made in the MIDAS literature to produce a forecasting methodology that is flexible, scales easily with the size of the portfolio and produces superior forecasts in simulation experiments and an empirical application.Cholesky, Midas, volatility forecasts

NPI-1, the human homolog of SRP-1, Interacts with influenza virus nucleoprotein

AbstractWe used the yeast interactive trap system to identify a cellular protein which interacts with the nucleoprotein of influenzaA viruses. This protein, nucleoprotein interactor 1 (NPI-1) is the human homolog of the yeast protein SRP1. SRP1 was previously identified as a suppressor of temperature-sensitive RNA polymerase I mutations (R. Yano, M. Oakes, M. Yamaghishi, J. Dodd, and M. Nomura, Mol. Cell. Biol. 12, 5640–5651, 1992). A full-length cDNA clone of NPI-1 was generated from HeLa cell poly A+ RNA. The viral nucleoprotein, which had been partially purified from influenza A/PR/8/34 virus-infected embryonated eggs, could be coprecipitated from solution by glutathione agarose beads complexed with a bacterially expressed glutathione-S-transferase-NPI-1 fusion protein, confirming the' results of the yeast genetic system. Antisera raised against NPI-1 identified a 60-kDa polypeptide from total cellular extracts of both HeLa and MDBK cells. The viral nucleoprotein was coimmunoprecipitated from influenza A/WSN/33 virus-infected MDBK cells by anti-NPI-1 sera, demonstrating an interaction of these two proteins in infected cells. Similarly, NPI-1 was coimmunoprecipitated from MDBK cells by anti-NP sera. These experiments suggest that NPI-1 plays a role during influenza virus replication

Preparing to Face Our Next Enemy

Emeritus Professor Robert O'Neill, a former head of SDSC examines the current and future requirements of the Australian Defence Force. O'Neill argues that the ADF must be able to defend the continent, assist international forces, and conduct counter-insurgency and disaster relief

Venting, joining and educating: motivations for knowledge sharing in the UK police blogosphere.

This article examines motivations for knowledge sharing in blogs written by police officers. It draws on the findings of a research project completed in 2011 based on content analysis of 63 blogs