Balancing the books ? a statistical theory of prospective budgets in Earth System science

International audienceAn honest declaration of the error in a mass, momentum or energy balance, ?, simply raises the question of its acceptability: "At what value of ? is the attempted balance to be rejected?" Answering this question requires a reference quantity against which to compare ?. This quantity must be a mathematical function of all the data used in making the balance. To deliver this function, a theory grounded in a workable definition of acceptability is essential. A distinction must be drawn between a retrospective balance and a prospective budget in relation to any natural space-filling body. Balances look to the past; budgets look to the future. The theory is built on the application of classical sampling theory to the measurement and closure of a prospective budget. It satisfies R.A. Fisher's "vital requirement that the actual and physical conduct of experiments should govern the statistical procedure of their interpretation". It provides a test, which rejects, or fails to reject, the hypothesis that the closing error on the budget, when realised, was due to sampling error only. By increasing the number of measurements, the discrimination of the test can be improved, controlling both the precision and accuracy of the budget and its components. The cost-effective design of such measurement campaigns is discussed briefly. This analysis may also show when campaigns to close a budget on a particular space-filling body are not worth the effort for either scientific or economic reasons. Other approaches, such as those based on stochastic processes, lack this finality, because they fail to distinguish between different types of error in the mismatch between a set of realisations of the process and the measured data. Keywords: balance, budget, sampling, hypothesis test, closing error, Earth Syste

Thresholds, switches and hysteresis in hydrology from the pedon to the catchment scale: a non-linear systems theory

International audienceHysteresis is a rate-independent non-linearity that is expressed through thresholds, switches, and branches. Exceedance of a threshold, or the occurrence of a turning point in the input, switches the output onto a particular output branch. Rate-independent branching on a very large set of switches with non-local memory is the central concept in the new definition of hysteresis. Hysteretic loops are a special case. A self-consistent mathematical description of hydrological systems with hysteresis demands a new non-linear systems theory of adequate generality. The goal of this paper is to establish this and to show how this may be done. Two results are presented: a conceptual model for the hysteretic soil-moisture characteristic at the pedon scale and a hysteretic linear reservoir at the catchment scale. Both are based on the Preisach model. A result of particular significance is the demonstration that the independent domain model of the soil moisture characteristic due to Childs, Poulavassilis, Mualem and others, is equivalent to the Preisach hysteresis model of non-linear systems theory, a result reminiscent of the reduction of the theory of the unit hydrograph to linear systems theory in the 1950s. A significant reduction in the number of model parameters is also achieved. The new theory implies a change in modelling paradigm

Balancing the books – a statistical theory of prospective budgets in Earth System science

An honest declaration of the error in a mass, momentum or energy balance, ε, simply raises the question of its acceptability: 'At what value of ε is the attempted balance to be rejected?' Answering this question requires a reference quantity against which to compare ε. This quantity must be a mathematical function of all the data used in making the balance. To deliver this function, a theory grounded in a workable definition of acceptability is essential. A distinction must be drawn between a retrospective balance and a prospective budget in relation to any natural space-filling body. Balances look to the past; budgets look to the future. The theory is built on the application of classical sampling theory to the measurement and closure of a prospective budget. It satisfies R.A. Fisher's 'vital requirement that the actual and physical conduct of experiments should govern the statistical procedure of their interpretation'. It provides a test, which rejects, or fails to reject, the hypothesis that the closing error on the budget, when realised, was due to sampling error only. By increasing the number of measurements, the discrimination of the test can be improved, controlling both the precision and accuracy of the budget and its components. The cost-effective design of such measurement campaigns is discussed briefly. This analysis may also show when campaigns to close a budget on a particular space-filling body are not worth the effort for either scientific or economic reasons. Other approaches, such as those based on stochastic processes, lack this finality, because they fail to distinguish between different types of error in the mismatch between a set of realisations of the process and the measured data. Keywords: balance, budget, sampling, hypothesis test, closing error, Earth Syste

Running: A Flexible Situated Study

This paper describes a situated study of personal informatics applications for running that had to be conducted in a flexible and pragmatic way to adjust for the context of use. A qualitative situated study highlighted important differences in runners' motivations, uncovering markedly different uses and preferences between people who run either for health or for pleasure, but also underscored how the physical nature of the interaction impacted data collection. By adjusting the method to be sensitive to the physical nature of the interaction and the preferences of the participants, a pragmatic situated approach provided insights into how these technologies are actually used

Mutations in shaking-B prevent electrical synapse formation in the Drosophila giant fiber system

The giant fiber system (GFS) is a simple network of neurons that mediates visually elicited escape behavior in Drosophila. The giant fiber (GF), the major component of the system, is a large, descending interneuron that relays visual stimuli to the motoneurons that innervate the tergotrochanteral jump muscle (TTM) and dorsal longitudinal flight muscles (DLMs). Mutations in the neural transcript from the shaking-B locus abolish the behavioral response by disrupting transmission at some electrical synapses in the GFS. This study focuses on the role of the gene in the development of the synaptic connections. Using an enhancer-trap line that expresses lacZ in the GFs, we show that the neurons develop during the first 30 hr of metamorphosis. Within the next 15 hr, they begin to form electrical synapses, as indicated by the transfer of intracellularly injected Lucifer yellow. The GFs dye-couple to the TTM motoneuron between 30 and 45 hr of metamorphosis, to the peripherally synapsing interneuron that drives the DLM motoneurons at approximately 48 hr, and to giant commissural interneurons in the brain at approximately 55 hr. Immunocytochemistry with shaking-B peptide antisera demonstrates that the expression of shaking-B protein in the region of GFS synapses coincides temporally with the onset of synaptogenesis; expression persists thereafter. The mutation shak-B2, which eliminates protein expression, prevents the establishment of dye coupling shaking-B, therefore, is essential for the assembly and/or maintenance of functional gap junctions at electrical synapses in the GFS

The Magnetic Environment of a Stealth Coronal Mass Ejection

Interest in stealth coronal mass ejections (CMEs) is increasing due to their relatively high occurrence rate and space weather impact. However, typical CME signatures such as extreme-ultraviolet dimmings and post-eruptive arcades are hard to identify and require extensive image processing techniques. These weak observational signatures mean that little is currently understood about the physics of these events. We present an extensive study of the magnetic field configuration in which the stealth CME of 2011 March 3 occurred. Three distinct episodes of flare ribbon formation are observed in the stealth CME source active region (AR). Two occurred prior to the eruption and suggest the occurrence of magnetic reconnection that builds the structure that will become eruptive. The third occurs in a time close to the eruption of a cavity that is observed in STEREO-B 171 Å data; this subsequently becomes part of the propagating CME observed in coronagraph data. We use both local (Cartesian) and global (spherical) models of the coronal magnetic field, which are complemented and verified by the observational analysis. We find evidence of a coronal null point, with field lines computed from its neighborhood connecting the stealth CME source region to two ARs in the northern hemisphere. We conclude that reconnection at the null point aids the eruption of the stealth CME by removing the field that acted to stabilize the preeruptive structure. This stealth CME, despite its weak signatures, has the main characteristics of other CMEs, and its eruption is driven by similar mechanisms