Inferring processes of cultural transmission: the critical role of rare variants in distinguishing neutrality from novelty biases

Neutral evolution assumes that there are no selective forces distinguishing different variants in a population. Despite this striking assumption, many recent studies have sought to assess whether neutrality can provide a good description of different episodes of cultural change. One approach has been to test whether neutral predictions are consistent with observed progeny distributions, recording the number of variants that have produced a given number of new instances within a specified time interval: a classic example is the distribution of baby names. Using an overlapping generations model we show that these distributions consist of two phases: a power law phase with a constant exponent of -3/2, followed by an exponential cut-off for variants with very large numbers of progeny. Maximum likelihood estimations of the model parameters provide a direct way to establish whether observed empirical patterns are consistent with neutral evolution. We apply our approach to a complete data set of baby names from Australia. Crucially we show that analyses based on only the most popular variants, as is often the case in studies of cultural evolution, can provide misleading evidence for underlying transmission hypotheses. While neutrality provides a plausible description of progeny distributions of abundant variants, rare variants deviate from neutrality. Further, we develop a simulation framework that allows for the detection of alternative cultural transmission processes. We show that anti-novelty bias is able to replicate the complete progeny distribution of the Australian data set

Translucent windows: How uncertainty in competitive interactions impacts detection of community pattern

Trait variation and similarity among coexisting species can provide a window into the mechanisms that maintain their coexistence. Recent theoretical explorations suggest that competitive interactions will lead to groups, or clusters, of species with similar traits. However, theoretical predictions typically assume complete knowledge of the map between competition and measured traits. These assumptions limit the plausible application of these patterns for inferring competitive interactions in nature. Here we relax these restrictions and find that the clustering pattern is robust to contributions of unknown or unobserved niche axes. However, it may not be visible unless measured traits are close proxies for niche strategies. We conclude that patterns along single niche axes may reveal properties of interspecific competition in nature, but detecting these patterns requires natural history expertise firmly tying traits to niches.Comment: Main text: 18 pages, 6 figures. Appendices: A-G, 6 supplementary figures. This is the peer reviewed version of the article of the same title which has been accepted for publication at Ecology Letters. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archivin

Topics in Power Usage in Network Services

The rapid advance of computing technology has created a world powered by millions of computers. Often these computers are idly consuming energy unnecessarily in spite of all the efforts of hardware manufacturers. This thesis examines proposals to determine when to power down computers without negatively impacting on the service they are used to deliver, compares and contrasts the efficiency of virtualisation with containerisation, and investigates the energy efficiency of the popular cryptocurrency Bitcoin. We begin by examining the current corpus of literature and defining the key terms we need to proceed. Then we propose a technique for improving the energy consumption of servers by moving them into a sleep state and employing a low powered device to act as a proxy in its place. After this we move on to investigate the energy efficiency of virtualisation and compare the energy efficiency of two of the most common means used to do this. Moving on from this we look at the cryptocurrency Bitcoin. We consider the energy consumption of bitcoin mining and if this compared with the value of bitcoin makes this profitable. Finally we conclude by summarising the results and findings of this thesis. This work increases our understanding of some of the challenges of energy efficient computation as well as proposing novel mechanisms to save energy

Universal abundance fluctuations across microbial communities, tropical forests, and urban populations

The growth of complex populations, such as microbial communities, forests, and cities, occurs over vastly different spatial and temporal scales. Although research in different fields has developed detailed, system-specific models to understand each individual system, a unified analysis of different complex populations is lacking; such an analysis could deepen our understanding of each system and facilitate cross-pollination of tools and insights across fields. Here, we analyze time-series data of the human gut microbiome, tropical forest, and urban employment using a shared framework. We demonstrate that a single, three-parameter model of stochastic population dynamics can reproduce the empirical distributions of population abundances and fluctuations in all three data sets. The three parameters characterizing a species measure its mean abundance, deterministic stability, and stochasticity. Our analysis reveals that, despite the vast differences in scale, all three systems occupy a similar region of parameter space when time is measured in generations. In other words, although the fluctuations observed in these systems may appear different, this difference is primarily due to the different observation periods for each system. Further, we show that the distribution of temporal abundance fluctuations is described by just two parameters and derive a two-parameter functional form for abundance fluctuations to improve risk estimation and forecasting

Non-Perturbative Tachyon Potential from the Wilsonian Renormalization Group

The derivative expansion of the Wilsonian renormalization group generates additional terms in the effective beta-functions not present in the perturbative approach. Applied to the nonlinear sigma model, to lowest order the vanishing of the beta-function for the tachyon field generates an equation analogous to that found in open string field theory. Although the nonlinear term depends on the cut-off function, this arbitrariness can be removed by a rescaling of the tachyon field.Comment: 6 pages, further references adde

Stability criteria for the consumption and exchange of essential resources

Models of consumer effects on a shared resource environment have helped clarify how the interplay of consumer traits and resource supply impact stable coexistence. Recent models generalize this picture to include the exchange of resources alongside resource competition. These models exemplify the fact that although consumers shape the resource environment, the outcome of consumer interactions is context-dependent: such models can have either stable or unstable equilibria, depending on the resource supply. However, these recent models focus on a simplified version of microbial metabolism where the depletion of resources always leads to consumer growth. Here, we model an arbitrarily large system of consumers governed by Liebig’s law, where species require and deplete multiple resources, but each consumer’s growth rate is only limited by a single one of these resources. Resources that are taken up but not incorporated into new biomass are leaked back into the environment, possibly transformed by intracellular reactions, thereby tying the mismatch between depletion and growth to cross-feeding. For this set of dynamics, we show that feasible equilibria can be either stable or unstable, again depending on the resource environment. We identify special consumption and production networks which protect the community from instability when resources are scarce. Using simulations, we demonstrate that the qualitative stability patterns derived analytically apply to a broader class of network structures and resource inflow profiles, including cases where multiple species coexist on only one externally supplied resource. Our stability criteria bear some resemblance to classic stability results for pairwise interactions, but also demonstrate how environmental context can shape coexistence patterns when resource limitation and exchange are modeled directly