A Bayesian Approach To Imposing Curvature On Distance Functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasiconvexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models � a fixed effects model and a random effects model � are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed

A Bayesian Approach To Imposing Curvature On Distance Functions

The estimated parameters of output distance functions frequently violate the monotonicity, quasiconvexity and convexity constraints implied by economic theory, leading to estimated elasticities and shadow prices that are incorrectly signed, and ultimately to perverse conclusions concerning the effects of input and output changes on productivity growth and relative efficiency levels. We show how a Bayesian approach can be used to impose these constraints on the parameters of a translog output distance function. Implementing the approach involves the use of a Gibbs sampler with data augmentation. A Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is also used within the Gibbs to simulate observations from truncated pdfs. Our methods are developed for the case where panel data is available and technical inefficiency effects are assumed to be time-invariant. Two models - a fixed effects model and a random effects model - are developed and applied to panel data on 17 European railways. We observe significant changes in estimated elasticities and shadow price ratios when regularity restrictions are imposed

Grammar induction for mildly context sensitive languages using variational Bayesian inference

The following technical report presents a formal approach to probabilistic minimalist grammar induction. We describe a formalization of a minimalist grammar. Based on this grammar, we define a generative model for minimalist derivations. We then present a generalized algorithm for the application of variational Bayesian inference to lexicalized mildly context sensitive language grammars which in this paper is applied to the previously defined minimalist grammar

Potential for tree rings to reveal spatial patterns of past drought variability across western Australia

Proxy records have provided major insights into the variability of past climates over long timescales. However, for much of the Southern Hemisphere, the ability to identify spatial patterns of past climatic variability is constrained by the sparse distribution of proxy records. This is particularly true for mainland Australia, where relatively few proxy records are located. Here, we (1) assess the potential to use existing proxy records in the Australasian region—starting with the only two multi-century tree-ring proxies from mainland Australia—to reveal spatial patterns of past hydroclimatic variability across the western third of the continent, and (2) identify strategic locations to target for the development of new proxy records. We show that the two existing tree-ring records allow robust reconstructions of past hydroclimatic variability over spatially broad areas (i.e. > 3° × 3°) in inland north- and south-western Australia. Our results reveal synchronous periods of drought and wet conditions between the inland northern and southern regions of western Australia as well as a generally anti-phase relationship with hydroclimate in eastern Australia over the last two centuries. The inclusion of 174 tree-ring proxy records from Tasmania, New Zealand and Indonesia and a coral record from Queensland did not improve the reconstruction potential over western Australia. However, our findings suggest that the addition of relatively few new proxy records from key locations in western Australia that currently have low reconstruction skill will enable the development of a comprehensive drought atlas for the region, and provide a critical link to the drought atlases of monsoonal Asia and eastern Australia and New Zealand

Tree Rings Show Recent High Summer-Autumn Precipitation in Northwest Australia Is Unprecedented within the Last Two Centuries

An understanding of past hydroclimatic variability is critical to resolving the significance of recent recorded trends in Australian precipitation and informing climate models. Our aim was to reconstruct past hydroclimatic variability in semi-arid northwest Australia to provide a longer context within which to examine a recent period of unusually high summer-autumn precipitation. We developed a 210-year ring-width chronology from Callitris columellaris, which was highly correlated with summer-autumn (Dec–May) precipitation (r = 0.81; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) and autumn (Mar–May) self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index (scPDSI, r = 0.73; 1910–2011; p < 0.0001) across semi-arid northwest Australia. A linear regression model was used to reconstruct precipitation and explained 66% of the variance in observed summer-autumn precipitation. Our reconstruction reveals inter-annual to multi-decadal scale variation in hydroclimate of the region during the last 210 years, typically showing periods of below average precipitation extending from one to three decades and periods of above average precipitation, which were often less than a decade. Our results demonstrate that the last two decades (1995–2012) have been unusually wet (average summer-autumn precipitation of 310 mm) compared to the previous two centuries (average summer-autumn precipitation of 229 mm), coinciding with both an anomalously high frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones in northwest Australia and the dominance of the positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode

Relationship Between Operator Volume and Adverse Outcome in Contemporary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Practice An Analysis of a Quality-Controlled Multicenter Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Clinical Database

ObjectivesThe aim of our study was to evaluate the volume-outcome relationship in a large, quality-controlled, contemporary percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) database.BackgroundWhether the relationship between physician volume of PCI and outcomes still exists in the era of coronary stents is unclear.MethodsData on 18,504 consecutive PCIs performed by 165 operators in calendar year 2002 were prospectively collected in a regional consortium. Operators' volume was divided into quintiles (1 to 33, 34 to 89, 90 to 139, 140 to 206, and 207 to 582 procedures/year). The primary end point was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including death, coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke or transient ischemic attack, myocardial infarction, and repeat PCI at the same site during the index hospital stay.ResultsThe unadjusted MACE rate was significantly higher in quintiles one and two of operator volume when compared with quintile five (7.38% and 6.13% vs. 4.15%, p = 0.002 and p = 0.0001, respectively). A similar trend was observed for in-hospital death. After adjustment for comorbidities, patients treated by low volume operators had a 63% increased odds of MACE (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29 to 2.06, p < 0.0001 for quintile [Q]1; adjusted OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.34 to 1.90, p < 0.0001 for Q2 vs. Q5), but not of in-hospital death. Overall, high volume operators had better outcomes than low volume operators in low-risk and high-risk patients.ConclusionsAlthough the relationship between operator volume and in-hospital mortality is no longer significant, the relationship between volume and any adverse outcome is still present. Technological advancements have not yet completely offset the influence of procedural volume on proficiency of PCIs

Conversation in the museum: experiments in dynamic hypermedia with the intelligent labelling explorer

We outline experience with the Intelligent Labelling Explorer, a dynamic hypertext system developed at the University of Edinburgh, in collaboration with the National Museums of Scotland. First, we indicate a number of ways in which labels on museum objects ought to be tuned to take into account types of visit, the interests of visitors, and their evolving knowledge during a visit. Secondly, we sketch the general architecture of our system, and then focus on the conversational effects which the system can create. We then briefly indicate future directions of research, before critically discussing the applicability (or otherwise) of the spatial metaphor to flexible hypertexts. Keywords: adaptive museum hypermedia, natural language techniques for dynamic hypertext generation, content adaptation in hypertext and hypermedia, web-based museum hypermedia, navigation design 1. Introduction We take dynamic hypertext to be that variety of flexible hypertext which relies upon techniques from th..

Health and population effects of rare gene knockouts in adult humans with related parents.

Examining complete gene knockouts within a viable organism can inform on gene function. We sequenced the exomes of 3222 British adults of Pakistani heritage with high parental relatedness, discovering 1111 rare-variant homozygous genotypes with predicted loss of function (knockouts) in 781 genes. We observed 13.7% fewer homozygous knockout genotypes than we expected, implying an average load of 1.6 recessive-lethal-equivalent loss-of-function (LOF) variants per adult. When genetic data were linked to the individuals' lifelong health records, we observed no significant relationship between gene knockouts and clinical consultation or prescription rate. In this data set, we identified a healthy PRDM9-knockout mother and performed phased genome sequencing on her, her child, and control individuals. Our results show that meiotic recombination sites are localized away from PRDM9-dependent hotspots. Thus, natural LOF variants inform on essential genetic loci and demonstrate PRDM9 redundancy in humans.The study was funded by the Wellcome Trust (WT102627 and WT098051), Barts Charity (845/1796), Medical Research Council (MR/M009017/1). This paper presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Collaboration for Applied Health Research and Care (CLAHRC) for Yorkshire and Humber. Core support for Born in Bradford is also provided by the Wellcome Trust (WT101597). V.N. was supported by the Wellcome Trust PhD Studentship (WT099769). D.G.M. and K.K. were supported by the National Institute of General Medical Sciences of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01GM104371. E.R.M. is funded by NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre. H.H. is supported by awards to establish the Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research, London, from the Medical Research Council, Arthritis Research UK, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Chief Scientist Office, Economic and Social Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, NIHR, National Institute for Social Care and Health Research, and Wellcome Trust.This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the American Association for the Advancement of Science via https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aac862

Multi-decadal variations in Southern Hemisphere atmospheric ¹⁴C: Evidence against a Southern Ocean sink at the end of the Little Ice Age CO₂ anomaly.

Northern Hemisphere-wide cooling during the Little Ice Age (LIA; CE 1650-1775) is associated with a ~5 ppmv decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Changes in terrestrial and ocean carbon reservoirs have been postulated as possible drivers of this relatively large shift in atmospheric CO₂, potentially providing insights into the mechanisms and sensitivity of the global carbon cycle. Here we report decadally-resolved radiocarbon (¹⁴C) levels in a network of tree rings series spanning CE 1700-1950 located along the northern boundary of, and within, the Southern Ocean. We observe regional dilutions in atmospheric radiocarbon (relative to the Northern Hemisphere) associated with upwelling of ¹⁴CO₂–depleted abyssal waters. We find the inter-hemispheric ¹⁴C offset approaches zero during increasing global atmospheric CO₂ at the end of the LIA, with reduced ventilation in the Southern Ocean and a Northern Hemisphere source of old carbon (most probably originating from deep Arctic peat layers). The coincidence of the atmospheric CO₂ increase and reduction in the inter-hemispheric ¹⁴C offset imply a common climate control. Possible mechanisms of synchronous change in the high latitudes of both hemispheres are discussed