Filamentary Star Formation in NGC 1275

We examine the star formation in the outer halo of NGC~1275, the central galaxy in the Perseus cluster (Abell 426), using far ultraviolet and optical images obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope. We have identified a population of very young, compact star clusters with typical ages of a few Myr. The star clusters are organised on multiple-kiloparsec scales. Many of these star clusters are associated with "streaks" of young stars, the combination of which has a cometary appearance. We perform photometry on the star clusters and diffuse stellar streaks, and fit their spectral energy distributions to obtain ages and masses. These young stellar populations appear to be normal in terms of their masses, luminosities and cluster formation efficiency; <10% of the young stellar mass is located in star clusters. Our data suggest star formation is associated with the evolution of some of the giant gas filaments in NGC~1275 that become gravitationally unstable on reaching and possibly stalling in the outer galaxy. The stellar streaks then could represent stars moving on ballistic orbits in the potential well of the galaxy cluster. We propose a model where star-forming filaments, switched on ~50~Myr ago and are currently feeding the growth of the NGC~1275 stellar halo at a rate of ~2-3 solar masses per year. This type of process may also build stellar halos and form isolated star clusters in the outskirts of youthful galaxies.Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Physically Meaningful Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Wind Turbine Power Curve Models as a Damage Sensitive Feature

A wind turbines' power curve is easily accessible damage sensitive data, and as such is a key part of structural health monitoring in wind turbines. Power curve models can be constructed in a number of ways, but the authors argue that probabilistic methods carry inherent benefits in this use case, such as uncertainty quantification and allowing uncertainty propagation analysis. Many probabilistic power curve models have a key limitation in that they are not physically meaningful - they return mean and uncertainty predictions outside of what is physically possible (the maximum and minimum power outputs of the wind turbine). This paper investigates the use of two bounded Gaussian Processes in order to produce physically meaningful probabilistic power curve models. The first model investigated was a warped heteroscedastic Gaussian process, and was found to be ineffective due to specific shortcomings of the Gaussian Process in relation to the warping function. The second model - an approximated Gaussian Process with a Beta likelihood was highly successful and demonstrated that a working bounded probabilistic model results in better predictive uncertainty than a corresponding unbounded one without meaningful loss in predictive accuracy. Such a bounded model thus offers increased accuracy for performance monitoring and increased operator confidence in the model due to guaranteed physical plausibility

A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting I: Development of MTB conditional rainfall scenario generator

International audienceThe need for the development of a method for generating an ensemble of rainfall scenarios, which are conditioned on the observed rainfall, and its place in the HYREX programme is discussed. A review of stochastic models for rainfall, and rainfall forecasting techniques, is followed by a justification for the choice of the Modified Turning Bands (MTB) model in this context. This is a stochastic model of rainfall which is continuous over space and time, and which reproduces features of real rainfall fields at four distinct scales: raincells, cluster potential regions, rainbands and the overall outline of a storm at the synoptic scale. The model can be used to produce synthetic data sets, in the same format as data from a radar. An inversion procedure for inferring a construction of the MTB model which generates a given sequence of radar images is described. This procedure is used to generate an ensemble of future rainfall scenarios which are consistent with a currently observed storm. The combination of deterministic modelling at the large scales and stochastic modelling at smaller scales, within the MTB model, makes the system particularly suitable for short-term forecasts. As the lead time increases, so too does the variability across the set of generated scenarios. Keywords: MTB model, space-time rainfall field model, rainfall radar, HYREX, real-time flow forecasting</p

Initial correlations effects on decoherence at zero temperature

We consider a free charged particle interacting with an electromagnetic bath at zero temperature. The dipole approximation is used to treat the bath wavelengths larger than the width of the particle wave packet. The effect of these wavelengths is described then by a linear Hamiltonian whose form is analogous to phenomenological Hamiltonians previously adopted to describe the free particle-bath interaction. We study how the time dependence of decoherence evolution is related with initial particle-bath correlations. We show that decoherence is related to the time dependent dressing of the particle. Moreover because decoherence induced by the T=0 bath is very rapid, we make some considerations on the conditions under which interference may be experimentally observed.Comment: 16 pages, 1 figur

Solubility of nickel in slags equilibrated with Ni-S melt

To provide thermodynamic data for converting the nickel matte to liquid nickel, an experimental study was conducted in the phase equilibrium between the Ni-S melt and FeOX-SiO2, FeOX-CaO or CaO-Al2O3 based slag melted in a magnesia crucible at 1773 and 1873 K. pSO2 was controlled at 10.1 kPa while pO2 and pS2 ranged between those where NiO precipitated and Ni3S2 formed, respectively. The nickel content in the slag and the sulfur content in the metal at given pO2 and pS2 were smallest for the CaO-Al2O3 based slag. Both decreased with increasing temperature. At 1873 K, the content of nickel in the CaO-Al2O3 based slag at pO2 of 10 Pa (near the precipitation of NiO) was 4%, while the content of sulfur in alloy is 0.4 mass %. Thus, the CaO-Al2O3 base slag at 1873 K would be suitable for direct converting of Ni3S2 to metallic nickel. The distribution behavior of nickel between the slag and the Ni-S melt was discussed based on the concept of oxidic and sulfidic dissolution

Microwave Dielectric Loss at Single Photon Energies and milliKelvin Temperatures

The microwave performance of amorphous dielectric materials at very low temperatures and very low excitation strengths displays significant excess loss. Here, we present the loss tangents of some common amorphous and crystalline dielectrics, measured at low temperatures (T < 100 mK) with near single-photon excitation energies, using both coplanar waveguide (CPW) and lumped LC resonators. The loss can be understood using a two-level state (TLS) defect model. A circuit analysis of the half-wavelength resonators we used is outlined, and the energy dissipation of such a resonator on a multilayered dielectric substrate is considered theoretically.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Applied Physics Letter

Health system costs and days in hospital for colorectal cancer patients in New South Wales, Australia.

IntroductionColorectal cancer (CRC) care costs the Australian healthcare system more than any other cancer. We estimated costs and days in hospital for CRC cases, stratified by site (colon/rectal cancer) and disease stage, to inform detailed analyses of CRC-related healthcare.MethodsIncident CRC patients were identified using the Australian 45 and Up Study cohort linked with cancer registry records. We analysed linked hospital admission records, emergency department records, and reimbursement records for government-subsidised medical services and prescription medicines. Cases' health system costs (2020 Australian dollars) and hospital days were compared with those for cancer-free controls (matched by age, sex, geography, smoking) to estimate excess resources by phase of care, analysed by sociodemographic, health, and disease characteristics.Results1200 colon and 546 rectal cancer cases were diagnosed 2006-2013, and followed up to June 2016. Eighty-nine percent of cases had surgery, chemotherapy or radiotherapy, and excess costs were predominantly for hospitalisations. Initial phase (12 months post-diagnosis) mean excess health system costs were $50,434 for colon and$60,877 for rectal cancer cases, with means of 16 and 18.5 excess hospital days, respectively. The annual continuing mean excess costs were $6,779 (colon) and$8,336 (rectal), with a mean of 2 excess hospital days each. Resources utilised (costs and days) in these phases increased with more advanced disease, comorbidities, and younger age. Mean excess costs in the year before death were $74,952 (colon) and$67,733 (rectal), with means of 34 and 30 excess hospital days, respectively-resources utilised were similar across all characteristics, apart from lower costs for cases aged ≥75 at diagnosis.ConclusionsHealth system costs and hospital utilisation for CRC care are greater for people with more advanced disease. These findings provide a benchmark, and will help inform future cost-effectiveness analyses of potential approaches to CRC screening and treatment