Early warning signal reliability varies with COVID-19 waves

Early warning signals (EWSs) aim to predict changes in complex systems from phenomenological signals in time series data. These signals have recently been shown to precede the emergence of disease outbreaks, offering hope that policymakers can make predictive rather than reactive management decisions. Here, using a novel, sequential analysis in combination with daily COVID-19 case data across 24 countries, we suggest that composite EWSs consisting of variance, autocorrelation and skewness can predict nonlinear case increases, but that the predictive ability of these tools varies between waves based upon the degree of critical slowing down present. Our work suggests that in highly monitored disease time series such as COVID-19, EWSs offer the opportunity for policymakers to improve the accuracy of urgent intervention decisions but best characterize hypothesized critical transitions

Constraining the provenance of the Stonehenge ‘Altar Stone’:Evidence from automated mineralogy and U–Pb zircon age dating

The Altar Stone at Stonehenge is a greenish sandstone thought to be of Late Silurian-Devonian (‘Old Red Sandstone’) age. It is classed as one of the bluestone lithologies which are considered to be exotic to the Salisbury Plain environ, most of which are derived from the Mynydd Preseli, in west Wales. However, no Old Red Sandstone rocks crop out in the Preseli; instead a source in the Lower Old Red Sandstone Cosheston Subgroup at Mill Bay to the south of the Preseli, has been proposed. More recently, on the basis of detailed petrography, a source for the Altar Stone much further to the east, towards the Wales-England border, has been suggested. Quantitative analyses presented here compare mineralogical data from proposed Stonehenge Altar Stone debris with samples from Milford Haven at Mill Bay, as well as with a second sandstone type found at Stonehenge which is Lower Palaeozoic in age. The Altar Stone samples have contrasting modal mineralogies to the other two sandstone types, especially in relation to the percentages of its calcite, kaolinite and barite cements. Further differences between the Altar Stone sandstone and the Cosheston Subgroup sandstone are seen when their contained zircons are compared, showing differing morphologies and U-Pb age dates having contrasting populations. These data confirm that Mill Bay is not the source of the Altar Stone with the abundance of kaolinite in the Altar Stone sample suggesting a source further east, towards the Wales-England border. The disassociation of the Altar Stone and Milford Haven undermines the hypothesis that the bluestones, including the Altar Stone, were transported from west Wales by sea up the Bristol Channel and adds further credence to a totally land-based route, possibly along a natural routeway leading from west Wales to the Severn estuary and beyond. This route may well have been significant in prehistory, raising the possibility that the Altar Stone was added en route to the assemblage of Preseli bluestones taken to Stonehenge around or shortly before 3000 BC. Recent strontium isotope analysis of human and animal bones from Stonehenge, dating to the beginning of its first construction stage around 3000 BC, are consistent with the suggestion of connectivity between this western region of Britain and Salisbury Plain.This study appears to be the first application of quantitative automated mineralogy in the provenancing of archaeological lithic material and highlights the potential value of automated mineralogy in archaeological provenancing investigations, especially when combined with complementary techniques, in the present case zircon age dating

Dermatosis neglecta in a case of multiple fractures, shoulder dislocation and radial nerve palsy in a 35-year-old man: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Dermatosis neglecta is an often misdiagnosed and under-diagnosed condition. In dermatosis neglecta, a progressive accumulation of sebum, sweat, keratin and other dirt and debris, occurs due to inadequate local hygiene resulting in a localized hyperpigmented patch or a verrucous plaque. Vigorous rubbing with alcohol-soaked gauze or soap and water results in a complete resolution of the lesion. This is the first case of dermatosis neglecta reported in a patient with multiple traumatic injuries.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report a case of a 35-year-old male Caucasian of Pakistani origin, with multiple fractures, neurological deficit and immobility sustained in a fall, leading to the development of dermatosis neglecta of the left hand.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Early and prompt clinical recognition of this condition eliminates the need for aggressive diagnostic and therapeutic procedures.</p

Planktonic functional diversity changes in synchrony with lake ecosystem state

Managing ecosystems to effectively preserve function and services requires reliable tools that can infer changes in the stability and dynamics of a system. Conceptually, functional diversity (FD) appears as a sensitive and viable monitoring metric stemming from suggestions that FD is a universally important measure of biodiversity and has a mechanistic influence on ecological processes. It is however unclear whether changes in FD consistently occur prior to state responses or vice versa, with no current work on the temporal relationship between FD and state to support a transition towards trait-based indicators. There is consequently a knowledge gap regarding when functioning changes relative to biodiversity change and where FD change falls in that sequence. We therefore examine the lagged relationship between planktonic FD and abundance-based metrics of system state (e.g. biomass) across five highly monitored lake communities using both correlation and cutting edge non-linear empirical dynamic modelling approaches. Overall, phytoplankton and zooplankton FD display synchrony with lake state but each lake is idiosyncratic in the strength of relationship. It is therefore unlikely that changes in plankton FD are identifiable before changes in more easily collected abundance metrics. These results highlight the power of empirical dynamic modelling in disentangling time lagged relationships in complex multivariate ecosystems, but suggest that FD cannot be generically viable as an early indicator. Individual lakes therefore require consideration of their specific context and any interpretation of FD across systems requires caution. However, FD still retains value as an alternative state measure or a trait representation of biodiversity when considered at the system level

Drivers of octopus abundance and density in an anchialine lake: a 30 year comparison

Anchialine systems are isolated from the sea and often support species’ populations distinct from their marine counterparts. Sweetings Pond, an anchialine lake on the island of Eleuthera in The Bahamas was identified as a site of high Caribbean reef octopus, Octopus briareus (Robson, 1929) density, relative to coastal populations. However, observed deterioration in local benthic habitat and increased anthropogenic influence over the last 30 years imply that this octopus population may have undergone density and distribution shifts in response to these changing conditions. Here, we assess the system wide octopus density to provide an updated estimate. We hypothesize that despite depressed habitat availability in the 1980s, it will now support octopus densities less than historical estimates because of increasing human impact on the system. Drivers of abundance were also modelled, testing ecological hypotheses of the relationship between octopus count and prey, habitat coverage, and human disturbance. Octopus briareus were found in 7 of 27 of surveys with a mean survey count of 0.630 ± 1.25 per 900 m2. Octopus density did not vary significantly between sites. Octopus count was predicted to increase with increasing cover of calcareous rubble and the density of a preferred prey species, and intriguingly, counts decreased as a function of natural den abundance. System wide octopus density was comparable to earlier studies from the 1980s (1982 = 717.38 per km2; 1983 = 282.59 per km2; 2019 = 643.81 per km2) with no significant difference between years. Given the ecosystem’s unique and closed ecological community and the population dynamics and distribution drivers we present, Sweetings Pond has the potential to act as a ‘natural laboratory’ to explore further questions about marine insular systems and their influence on species populations in terms of ecological and behavioural change

A new analysis of the short-duration, hard-spectrum GRB 051103, a possible extragalactic soft gamma repeater giant flare

GRB 051103 is considered to be a candidate soft gamma repeater (SGR) extragalactic giant magnetar flare by virtue of its proximity on the sky to M81/M82, as well as its time history, localization and energy spectrum. We have derived a refined interplanetary network localization for this burst which reduces the size of the error box by over a factor of 2. We examine its time history for evidence of a periodic component, which would be one signature of an SGR giant flare, and conclude that this component is neither detected nor detectable under reasonable assumptions. We analyse the time-resolved energy spectra of this event with improved time and energy resolution, and conclude that although the spectrum is very hard its temporal evolution at late times cannot be determined, which further complicates the giant flare association. We also present new optical observations reaching limiting magnitudes of R > 24.5, about 4-mag deeper than previously reported. In tandem with serendipitous observations of M81 taken immediately before and 1 month after the burst, these place strong constraints on any rapidly variable sources in the region of the refined error ellipse proximate to M81. We do not find any convincing afterglow candidates from either background galaxies or sources in M81, although within the refined error region we do locate two UV bright star-forming regions which may host SGRs. A supernova remnant (SNR) within the error ellipse could provide further support for an SGR giant flare association, but we were unable to identify any SNR within the error ellipse. These data still do not allow strong constraints on the nature of the GRB 051103 progenitor, and suggest that candidate extragalactic SGR giant flares will be difficult, although not impossible, to confir