Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Sierra Leone from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the AS series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the AR (4) model, also known as the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show us that the presented model is stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the study indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Sierra Leone will rise over the out-of-sample period. By 2025, the country will be having a prevalence of anemia in children of approximately 78.6%

Pediatric HIV outbreak in Pakistan: policy implications from generalized arima analysis

HIV/AIDS is increasingly becoming a nightmare in Pakistan. If left uncontrolled now, the country’s limited resources could be overwhelmed by 2030 and this will cause worse sufferings and disease burden in the country. Using annual time series data on the number of children (ages 0 – 14) newly infected with HIV in Pakistan from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of children who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2030. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, W, the series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model as the parsimonious model. The residual correlogram further reveals that the estimated model is stable. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in Pakistan is rising and on this trajectory, the country’s limited resources will soon be overwhelmed. Our best model revealed that new pediatric HIV infections in Pakistan will continue to rise from the estimated 1460 to almost 1990 annual new infections by 2030. Amongst other policy directions, the study encourages the government of Pakistan to increase HIV awareness as well as expand PPTCT coverage throughout the country

Adults newly infected with hiv in burundi: a box-jenkins arima approach

Using annual time series data on the number of adults (ages 15 and above) newly infected with HIV in Burundi from 1990 – 2018, the study predicts the annual number of adults who will be newly infected with HIV over the period 2019 – 2025. The study applied the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests as well as correlogram analysis show that the G series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model as the optimal model. The residual correlogram and the inverse roots of the applied model further reveal that the presented model is stable and suitable for forecasting new HIV infections in adults in Burundi. The results of the study indicate that the number of new HIV infections in adults in Burundi will most likely decline, over the period 2019 – 2023, from approximately 698 to almost 90 new HIV infections. By 2025, Burundi could experience her first zero new HIV infections in adults! This implies that, despite the fact that Vision Burundi 2025 is a highly ambitious blue-print; Vision Burundi 2025 will largely be achieved as far as HIV/AIDS prevention and control is concerned

Total new HIV infections in Togo: a box-jenkins arima approach

Using annual time series data on the total number of new HIV infections in Togo from 1990 – 2018, the study makes predictions for the period 2019 – 2030. The research applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, J, the series under consideration is an I (2) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 2, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is indeed stable and its residuals are not serially correlated and are also normally distributed. The results of the study indicate that the total number of new HIV infections in Togo is projected to decline sharply by 53.5% from the estimated 4791 new infections in 2019 to approximately 2229 new infections by 2030

Arima Forecasting of ohe prevalence of Anemia in children in Myanmar

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country.&nbsp

OPEN DEFECATION IN MALAWI: A BOX-JENKINS ARIMA APPROACH

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Malawi from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the M series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (3, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further show that the presented model is stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Malawi is likely to decline, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 5.1% to almost 2.8% of the total population. Indeed, by 2030, open defecation can be eliminated in Malawi: hence, the country is in the right track with regards to its vision 2030 (on water, sanitation and hygiene). The study suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Malawi

Open defecation in Kenya: A Box-Jenkins Arima Approach

Using annual time series data on the number of people who practice open defecation in Kenya from 2000 – 2017, the study predicts the annual number of people who will still be practicing open defecation over the period 2018 – 2021. The authors apply the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that the ODK series under consideration is an I (1) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents the ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model as the optimal model. The diagnostic tests further indicate that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are stationary in levels. The results of the study indicate that the number of people practicing open defecation in Kenya is likely to decline, although slightly, over the period 2018 – 2022, from approximately 9.9% to almost 8.2% of the total population. Hence, it is possible for Kenya to completely eliminate the practice of open defecation by 2030. The study basically suggested a 3-fold policy recommendation to be put into consideration, especially by the government of Kenya

Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country.&nbsp

Pedagogies of access and success among South African university students in the extended curriculum programmes amidst COVID-19 disruptions

The shift from contact to online classes as universities sought to ensure continuity in its academic enterprise not only happened within a context of uncertainties, hesitancy, and contestations but it had huge implications on pedagogic access and educational success for students from disadvantaged academic and social backgrounds. This article uses an ethnographic approach that draws from a combination of personal interactions with 24 participants who included 12 extended students, 4 parents, 4 academic and 4 administrative staff drawn from two South African universities, one of them in an urban and the other in a rural setting. Two key objectives feature in the article, that is how students in the extended curriculum programme have experienced online pedagogies and with what effects on their academic access and success. The article’s key findings highlight how through inclusive pedagogies with a holistic focus, the influences of societal and university ethos together with teacher competencies and other features become central when exploring pedagogic access and access nuances that confront students particularly the extended students within a setting featuring disruptions resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. The article further makes a case for the relevant pedagogies that can be adopted for dealing with student success issues especially under periods of disruptions. The article further highlights ways in which the move to online pedagogies has not just threatened the success of these students but the very foundations of the extended curriculum programme which aims at addressing issues of student exclusion and success. The article concludes that while the experiences of the extended students represent a microcosm of the broader challenges faced by university students in general, there is evidence that successful inclusive models are those that are holistic with a focus on addressing diverse issues associated with university teaching and learning especially when untested online pedagogies are adopted

Arima forecasting of the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar

Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model. This has been found to be the parsimonious model. The diagnostic tests further reveal that the presented model is quite stable and its residuals are not serially correlated. The results of the research indicate that the prevalence of anemia in children in Myanmar will rise from approximately 54.5% in 2017 to almost 64.8% by 2025. This means that anemia is not yet under control in the country. This is a wake up call to both public health policy makers and nutrition specialists in the country. Using annual time series data on the prevalence of anemia in children under 5 years of age in Myanmar from 1990 – 2016, the study makes predictions for the period 2017 – 2025. The study applies the Box-Jenkins ARIMA methodology. The diagnostic ADF tests show that, AM, the series under consideration is an I (0) variable. Based on the AIC, the study presents an AR (4) model, which is also called the ARIMA (4, 0, 0) model.&nbsp