Model selection for monetary policy analysis – Importance of empirical validity

We investigate the importance of employing a valid model for monetary policy analysis. Specifically, we investigate the economic significance of differences in specification and empirical validity of models. We consider three alternative econometric models of wage and price inflation in Norway. We find that differences in model specification as well as in parameter estimates across models can lead to widely different policy recommendations. We also find that the potential loss from basing monetary policy on a model that may be invalid, or on a suite of models, even when it contains the valid model, can be substantial, also when gradualism is exercised as a concession to model uncertainty. Furthermore, possible losses from such a practice appear to be greater than possible losses from failing to choose the optimal policy horizon to a shock within the framework of a valid model. Our results substantiate the view that a model for policy analysis should necessarily be empirically valid and caution against compromising this property for other desirable model properties, including robustness.Model uncertainty; Econometric modelling; Economic significance; Robust monetary policy.

SMA Technical Report

Technical report from pilot studies in the Sensing Music-related Actions group. The report presents simple motion sensor technology and issues regarding pre-processing of music-related motion data. In cognitive music research, ones main focus is the relationship between music and human beings. This involves emotions, moods, perception, expression, interaction with other people, interaction with musical instruments and other interfaces, among many other things. Due to the nature of music as a subjective experience, verbal utterances on these aspects tend to be coloured by the person who makes them. Such utterances are limited by the vocabulary of the person, and by the process of consciously transforming these inner feelings and experiences to words (Leman 2007: 5f). Thus, gesture research has become extensively popular among researchers wanting a deeper understanding of how people interact with music. In this kind of research, several different methods are used, using for example infrared-sensitive cameras (Wiesendanger et al. 2006) or video recordings in combination with MIDI (Jabusch 2006). This paper presents methods being used in a pilot study for the Sensing Music-related Actions project at the Department of Musicology and the Department of Informatics at the University of Oslo. Here I will discuss the methods for apprehending and analysing gestural data in this project, especially looking into use of sensors for measuring movement and tracking absolute position. In this project, a superior goal is to develop methods for studying gestures in musical performance. In a large view this involves gathering data, analysing the data and organizing the data in such a way that we ourselves and others easily can find and understand the data

The empirical relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips curve.

The dynamic properties of the The New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) is analysed within the framework of a small system of linear difference equations. We evaluate the empirical results of existing studies which uses `Euroland' and US data. The debate has been centered around the goodness-of-fit, but this is a weak criterion since the NPC-fit is typically well approximated by purely statistical models (e.g., a random walk). Several other parametric tests are then considered, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized. We also highlight the role of existing studies in providing new information relative to that which underlies the typical NPC. This encompassing approach is applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and NorwayNew Keynesian Phillips curves, US inflation, Euro inflation, UK inflation, Norwegian inflation, Monetary policy, Dynamic stability conditions, Evaluation, Encompassing tests.

The Empirical (ir)Relevance of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve

We give an appraisal of the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NPC) as an empirical model of European inflation. We show that existing evidence reported in favour of the NPC on Euro-area and country data is due to a corroborative research strategy. In particular, goodness-of-fit is a weak criterion, since the NPC-fit is well approximated by a random walk. Instead we report the outcome of more critical tests, and the importance of modelling a system that includes the forcing variables as well as the rate of inflation is emphasized.Finally, encompassing tests are applied to open economy versions of the NPC for UK and Norway.New Keynesian Phillips curves; Euro inflation; UK inflation; Norwegian inflation; Monetary policy; Dynamic stability conditions; Evaluation; Encompassing tests

Econometric Inflation Targeting

Inflation targeting requires inflation forecasts, yet most models in the literature are either theoretical or calibrated. The motivation for this paper is therefore threefold: We seek to test and implement an econometric model forforecasting inflation in Norway–one economy recently opting for formal inflation targeting rather than a managed nominal exchange rate. We also seek to quantify the relative importance of the di?erent transmission mechanisms– with basis in empirical estimates rather than calibrated values. Finally, we want to focus on and exploit econometric issues required in the design and estimation of econometric models used for inflation forecasting and policy analysis.inflation targeting; monetary policy; wages and prices; cointegration; dynamic modelling

Model Specification and Inflation Forecast Uncertainty

Three classes of inflation models are discussed: Standard Phillips curves, New Keynesian Phillips curves and Incomplete Competition models. Their relative merits in explaining and forecasting inflation are investigated theoretically and empirically. We establish that Standard Phillips-curve forecasts are robust to types of structural breaks that harm the Incomplete Competion model forecasts, but exaggerate forecast uncertainty in periods with no breaks. As the potential biases in after-break forecast errors for the Incomplete Competition model can be remedied by intercept corrections, it offers the best prospect of successful inflation forecasting.monetary policy; inflation targeting; wages and prices; model specification; encompassing; model uncertainty; forecasting

SPACs: Financial IPO Tool Gone Wrong – Awaiting SEC Recourse: A Study on the Resurgence of SPACs Following the M2 Money Supply Stimulus by the Federal Reserve in March 2020

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Increasing organic food consumption through public procurement Findings and recommendations - With a special focus on school meals

This product is a leaflet (available in English and Italian)summarizing recommendations from the iPOPY research project. The project studied how increased consumption of organic food may be achieved by strategies and instruments linked to public food-serving outlets for young people. iPOPY analysed the following key aspects of public organic food procurement (POP) for youth in Italy, Denmark, Finland, Norway and to some extent in Germany: Policy issues, supply chain organization and the role of certification, users’ perceptions and participation in the food system, and the health impacts of organic food implementation. The interdisciplinary research focussed on organic school meals as the most important channel of public food provision for youth. This leaflet, addressing actors at the interface between science and practice, presents the main findings of the project and provides recommendations to specific actors, such as policy makers as well as practitioners and stake holders from the catering sector, administrations and schools or other food serving arenas

MOSES: Model of Swedish Economic Studies

MOSES is an aggregate econometric model for Sweden, estimated on quarterly data, and intended for short-term forecasting and policy simulations. After a presentation of qualitative model properties, the econometric methodology is summarized. The model properties, within sample simulations, and examples of dynamic simulation (model forecasts) for the period 2009q2-2012q4 are presented. We address practical issues relating to operational use and maintenance of a macro model of this type. The detailed econometric equations are reported in an appendix.

The nutritive status in two different socio-economic groups in Hanang and Mbulu district and introduction of dairy products from goats as a food source in Tanzania

This study has been designed to investigate whether there is a difference in nutrition and livelihood in two socioeconomic groups in Hanang and Mbulu district, Tanzania. The two groups consist of modern people working as nurses at Haydom Lutheran Hospital, and traditional people with foremost farming as occupation and income. The focus in this survey is on children and youth, since they need nutritious food to develop well. The other aim of the study is to look at the interest in using goat milk yoghurt among adults in Hanang and Mbulu district. The analysis in this study is based on data collected trough two questionnaire surveys. The data collected trough the nutrition survey was used to identify the households, collect information about nutrition and livelihood status and the use of milk and milk products in the two groups. The data from the yoghurt survey was used to look at the marked possibilities for goat milk yoghurt at Haydom and Mulbadaw area. Every household in the nutrition survey was asked for daily, weekly and monthly choice of foodstuffs to get a view of what people were eating in this area. The food intake for an average child was recorded and results were used to look at the amount of calories consumed. Questions about the use of milk and milk products were asked to get a picture of the importance of milk. For the marketing test of yoghurt every respondent was asked to taste three types of goat milk yoghurt and answer questions concerning the survey. The results of the nutrition survey show that there is a slightly better livelihood and nutrition for people defined as modern compared to the traditional group in this study. The results of the marketing test of goat milk yoghurt show that there is a huge potential in selling the product in this area