A New Solution to the Plasma Starved Event Horizon Magnetosphere: Application to the Forked Jet in M87

Very Long Baseline Interferometry observations at 86 GHz reveal an almost hollow jet in M87 with a forked morphology. The detailed analysis presented here indicates that the spectral luminosity of the central spine of the jet in M87 is a few percent of that of the surrounding hollow jet $200 -400 \mu\rm{as}$ from the central black hole. Furthermore, recent jet models in indicate that a hollow "tubular" jet can explain a wide range of plausible broadband spectra originating from jetted plasma located within $\sim 30\mu\rm{as}$ of the central black hole, including the 230 GHz correlated flux detected by the Event Horizon Telescope. Most importantly, these hollow jets from the inner accretion flow have an intrinsic power capable of energizing the global jet out to kiloparsec scales. Thus motivated, this paper considers new models of the event horizon magnetosphere (EHM) in low luminosity accretion systems. Contrary to some models, the spine is not an invisible powerful jet. It is an intrinsically weak jet. In the new EHM solution, the accreted poloidal magnetic flux is weak and the background photon field is weak. It is shown how this accretion scenario naturally results in the dissipation of the accreted poloidal magnetic flux in the EHM not the accumulation of poloidal flux required for a powerful jet. The new solution indicates less large scale poloidal magnetic flux (and jet power) in the EHM than in the surrounding accretion flow and cannot support significant EHM driven jets.Comment: To appear in Astronomy and Astrophysics. Revision fixes typos found during proof

Reliability of reporting of HIV status and antiretroviral therapy usage during verbal autopsies: a large prospective study in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: Verbal autopsies (VAs) are interviews with a relative or friend of the deceased; VAs are a technique used in surveillance sites in many countries with incomplete death certification. The goal of this study was to assess the accuracy and validity of data on HIV status and antiretroviral therapy (ART) usage reported in VAs and their influence on physician attribution of cause of death. DESIGN: This was a prospective cohort study. METHODS: The Karonga Health and Demographic Surveillance Site monitors demographic events in a population in a rural area of northern Malawi; a VA is attempted on all deaths reported. VAs are reviewed by clinicians, who, with additional HIV test information collected pre-mortem, assign a cause of death. We linked HIV/ART information reported by respondents during adult VAs to database information on HIV testing and ART use and analysed agreement using chi-square and kappa statistics. We used multivariable logistic regression to analyse factors associated with agreement. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2014, out of a total of 1,952 VAs, 80% of respondents reported the HIV status of the deceased. In 2013-2014, this figure was 99%. Of those with an HIV status known to the study, there was 89% agreement on HIV status between the VA and pre-mortem data, higher for HIV-negative people (92%) than HIV-positive people (83%). There was 84% agreement on whether the deceased had started ART, and 72% of ART initiation dates matched within 1 year. CONCLUSIONS: In this population, HIV/ART information was often disclosed during a VA and matched well with other data sources. Reported HIV/ART status appears to be a reliable source of information to help classification of cause of death

Efficacy of expressive helping in adult hematologic cancer patients undergoing stem cell transplant: : Protocol for the Writing for Insight, Strength, and Ease (WISE) study’s two-arm randomized controlled trial

Funding Information: This study was supported by the National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under award number R01CA223963. The content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of the National Institutes of Health. The funding body had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, The Author(s).Background: During, shortly after, and sometimes for years after hematopoietic stem cell transplant, a large proportion of hematological cancer patients undergoing transplant report significant physical and psychological symptoms and reduced health-related quality of life. To address these survivorship problems, we developed a low-burden, brief psychological intervention called expressive helping that includes two theory- and evidence-based components designed to work together synergistically: emotionally expressive writing and peer support writing. Building on evidence from a prior randomized control trial showing reductions in physical symptoms and distress in long-term transplant survivors with persistent survivorship problems, the Writing for Insight, Strength, and Ease (WISE) trial will evaluate the efficacy of expressive helping when used during transplant and in the early post-transplant period, when symptoms peak, and when intervention could prevent development of persistent symptoms. Methods: WISE is a multi-site, two-arm randomized controlled efficacy trial. Adult hematological cancer patients scheduled for a hematopoietic stem cell transplant will complete baseline measures and then, after hospitalization but prior to transplant, they will be randomized to complete either expressive helping or a time and attention “neutral writing” task. Both expressive helping and neutral writing involve four brief writing sessions, beginning immediately after randomization and ending approximately 4 weeks after hospital discharge. Measures of symptom burden (primary outcome), distress, health-related quality of life, and fatigue (secondary outcomes) will be administered in seven assessments coinciding with medically relevant time points from baseline and to a year post-intervention. Discussion: The steady and continuing increase in use of stem cell transplantation has created growing need for efficacious, accessible interventions to reduce the short- and long-term negative physical and psychosocial effects of this challenging but potentially life-saving treatment. Expressive helping is a psychological intervention that was designed to fill this gap. It has been shown to be efficacious in long-term transplant survivors but could have even greater impact if it is capable of reducing symptoms during and soon after transplant. The WISE study will evaluate these benefits in a rigorous randomized controlled trial. Trial registration: Clinicaltrial.govNCT03800758. Registered January 11, 2019Peer reviewe

Health trends, inequalities and opportunities in South Africa's provinces, 1990-2019: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study.

BACKGROUND: Over the last 30 years, South Africa has experienced four 'colliding epidemics' of HIV and tuberculosis, chronic illness and mental health, injury and violence, and maternal, neonatal, and child mortality, which have had substantial effects on health and well-being. Using data from the 2019 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study (GBD 2019), we evaluated national and provincial health trends and progress towards important Sustainable Development Goal targets from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We analysed GBD 2019 estimates of mortality, non-fatal health loss, summary health measures and risk factor burden, comparing trends over 1990-2007 and 2007-2019. Additionally, we decomposed changes in life expectancy by cause of death and assessed healthcare system performance. RESULTS: Across the nine provinces, inequalities in mortality and life expectancy increased over 1990-2007, largely due to differences in HIV/AIDS, then decreased over 2007-2019. Demographic change and increases in non-communicable diseases nearly doubled the number of years lived with disability between 1990 and 2019. From 1990 to 2019, risk factor burdens generally shifted from communicable and nutritional disease risks to non-communicable disease and injury risks; unsafe sex remained the top risk factor. Despite widespread improvements in healthcare system performance, the greatest gains were generally in economically advantaged provinces. CONCLUSIONS: Reductions in HIV/AIDS and related conditions have led to improved health since 2007, though most provinces still lag in key areas. To achieve health targets, provincial governments should enhance health investments and exchange of knowledge, resources and best practices alongside populations that have been left behind, especially following the COVID-19 pandemic

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH