The predictive value of NT-proBNP and hs-TnT for risk of death in cardiac surgical patients

Background: European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II (EuroSCORE II) is used for risk stratification before cardiac surgery, but whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity troponin T (hs-TnT) may add prognostic information to EuroSCORE II is not known. Methods: Preoperative (n = 640) and postoperative (n = 629) blood samples were available from cardiac surgical patients with 961-day follow-up (FINNAKI Heart study; cohort #1). The accuracy of a parsimonious risk model with NT-proBNP measurements was also tested in 90 patients with respiratory failure after cardiac surgery (FINNALI study; cohort #2). Results: Sixty-one patients (9.5%) died during follow-up in cohort #1. Preoperative NT-proBNP and hs-TnT concentrations correlated (rho = 0.58; p <0.001) and were higher in non-survivors compared to survivors: median 2027 (Q1-3 478-5387) vs. 373 (134-1354) ng/L [NT-proBNP] and 39 (16-191) vs. 13 (8-32) ng/L [hs-TnT]; p <0.001 for both. Preoperative NT-proBNP concentrations were associated with time to death after adjustment for EuroSCORE II (HR [lnNT-proBNP] 1.33 [95% CI 1.08-1.64]), p = 0.008 and reclassified patients on top of EuroSCORE II (net reclassification index 0.39 [95% CI 0.14-0.64], p = 0.003). Pre-and postoperative NT-proBNP concentrations were closely correlated (rho = 0.80, p <0.001) and postoperative NT-proBNP concentrations were also associated with long-term mortality after adjustment for EuroSCORE II. A parsimonious risk model that included age, creatinine clearance, chronic pulmonary disease, and NT-proBNP measurements provided comparable prognostic accuracy as EuroSCORE II in cohort #1 and #2 for risk of long-term mortality. hs-TnT measurements did not add to NT-proBNP measurements Conclusion: NT-proBNP measurements could improve and simplify risk prediction in cardiac surgical patients.Peer reviewe

Enhanced liver fibrosis test predicts transplant-free survival in primary sclerosing cholangitis, a multi-center study

Background & Aims: Biomarkers reflecting disease activity and prognosis in primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) have not been firmly established. Enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test was previously reported to predict outcome in PSC. We aimed to validate the prognostic utility of ELF test in an independent, multi‐centre, retrospective PSC study population. Methods: We collected serum samples from PSC patients from seven countries. We estimated rates of transplant‐free survival by the Kaplan‐Meier method, used Cox proportional hazards regression to explore the association between ELF test and clinical outcome and determined prognostic performance of ELF test by computing the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC‐ROC) curve. Results: The final analysis included 534 PSC patients (61% males). Features of autoimmune hepatitis or concomitant inflammatory bowel disease affected 44 (8%) and 379 (71%) patients respectively. ELF test levels were higher in patients reaching the combined endpoint liver transplantation or death (median 10.9 [Interquartile range (IQR): 9.8‐12.1]; n=24 deaths, 79 liver transplantations) compared to those censored (8.8 [IQR: 8.0‐9.8]); P<.001. ELF test expressed as mild, moderate and severe fibrosis was significantly associated with the risk of reaching the endpoint (P<.001). ELF test independently predicted clinical outcome (Hazard ratio 1.31; 95% confidence interval [1.05‐1.65]; P=.018), and enabled good discrimination between PSC patients with and without endpoint (AUC‐ROC: 0.79). Conclusion: Our retrospective data validates the predictive utility of ELF test for clinical outcomes in PSC. The clinical utility of biomarkers for fibrosis in patients with PSC should be assessed in prospective patient cohorts