Macroeconomic Models and the Challenge of Growth in African Economies: The Context

This study addresses the challenges of theorizing the economy of Africa in the context of using macroeconomic models to reshape the future of its non-inclusive growth. It argues that the catastrophic policy summersault of economies that rely on theoretical macro models is traceable to the fact that such models rather than represent the uniqueness of every economy sees all economies as having the same characteristics.  Thus it avers for eclectic African models that can redefine economic theory rather than use economic theory to define the economies of Africa. This calls for portfolio of complementary models through constant refinements rather than portfolio of outcompeting models. Keywords: Africa, challenge of growth, eclectic model, macroeconomic mode

Determinants of Antenatal Care Services Utilisation in Nigeria

This study reports on recent evidence on determinants of antenatal visits in Nigeria using data from Demographic and Health Surveys for 2003 and 2008. Using count data models, the results show that women education beyond primary education level increases significantly the likelihood that a pregnant woman would complete at least four antenatal visits before delivery. The results also show that household wealth status has significant positive effect on the number of visits before delivery. There are significant differences in the number of antenatal visits determined by geopolitical zones and the place of antenatal also determines significantly the number of visits. These findings suggest that there is room for policy to control the attitude of women to care utilisation during pregnancy by influencing their education level and income. Keywords: Antenatal care, women, Negative binomial, Nigeri

Monetary Policy and Output-inflation Volatility Interaction in Nigeria: Evidence from Bivariate GARCH-M Model

Abstract:This article reports on a recent study that applies bivariate GARCH methodology to investigate the existence of a tradeoff between output growth and inflation variability in Nigeria and to ascertain the impact of monetary policy regime changes (from direct control regime to indirect or market based regime) on the nature of the volatility tradeoffs. Investigations reveal the existence of a short run tradeoff relationship between output growth and inflation within and across both regimes. However, no strong evidence of long run volatility relationship could be established. Our results further reveal that regime changes affected the magnitude of policy effects on output and inflation. Monetary policy had a stronger effect on output growth than on price stability during the period of direct control while it has a much larger impact on inflation during the current period of market-based regime. Also volatility of output and inflation became more persistent during the period of indirect control. Keywords: Monetary Policy, Output-Inflation Volatility, Bivariate GARCH-M Mode

Lost Revenue Due to Trade Liberalization: Can Nigeria recover her own?

The aim of the study is to find out the possibility of recovering the tariff revenue that will be lost in the process of liberalization through restructuring of the domestic tax system in Nigeria by examining the buoyancy and elasticity of the tax system. Using the dummy method, commonly known as the Singer approach, the Nigerian tax system as a whole was found to be relatively buoyant but not elastic. The buoyancy however showed a decline close to 16% after the 1991 trade reform. Import duty despite the decline in its share in total tax from 47.3% before the reform to 28% over the reform period showed a positive increase in buoyancy. CIT collection measured by tax-to-base elasticity declined by 46% over the reform period, suggesting that there is an urgent need to improve on tax administration. Also, the result confirm the ineffectiveness of the various reforms and (DTMs) in enhancing the productivity of the tax system, showing that much need to be done in our domestic tax system, both in structure and administration before thinking of engaging in any bi- or multilateral trade agreement.   Key words: Nigeria, Trade liberalisation, Lost revenue and Domestic tax syste

Bank Consolidation and Bank Risk Taking Behaviour: A Panel Study of Commercial Banks in Nigeria

This paper investigates the impact of bank recapitalization on the risk taking attitude of commercial banks in Nigeria. We employed panel data model in the analyses and the results show that increase in bank capital promotes bank stability. The results also reveal that excessive provisions for bad loans may be an indication that a large part of bank credit is nonperforming and this affects bank’s stability adversely. The results further indicate that growth in size is an important determinant of credit risk alongside large capital, although growth in size of banks has a nonlinear effect on bank stability. We found that the consolidation period was followed by abnormal increases in bank lending, indicating the existence of moral hazard problem.  Our findings suggest that increase in capital base should also be matched with effective regulations to prevent moral hazard problem from dampening the positive effect of capital reforms on bank stability. Keywords: recapitalisation, merger, consolidation, reforms, risk-takin

International Remittance Inflows and Household Welfare: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria

The contribution of remittances income in mitigating poverty and income inequality in Nigeria has attracted very little attention in general. Very few studies have looked at the quantitative relationship between remittance inflows, poverty and income inequality in Nigeria even though it is now believed that total remittance inflows into Nigeria; exceed Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Overseas Development Assistant (ODA). Using poverty and Gini decomposable techniques, the study finds that household poverty declines across all the geopolitical zones, by sex and locality as a result of remittance inflows. For example, with remittances, household poverty falls from 0.35 to 0.30 in the South-South region, 0.27 to 0.22 in the South-East region and 0.43 to 0.36 in the South-West region. Poverty also declines from 0.67 to 0.60 in the North-Central region, 0.72 to 0.66 in the North-East and from 0.71 to 0.66 in the North-West regions. Similarly, in the Gini decomposition; the study finds that increase in remittances reduce income inequality more in urban areas (0.1) than in rural areas (0.02). For example, a 10% increase in remittances other things being equal, is associated with declines in the Gini coefficients of total income inequality of 0.02% in rural area and 0.1% in the urban area

International remittance inflows and household welfare : empirical evidence from Nigeria

This paper reports on findings that show household poverty declines across all the geopolitical zones as a result of remittance inflows. Few studies have tried to evaluate the impacts of remittances and the remittance environment in Nigeria, or looked at the quantitative relationship between remittance inflows, poverty and income inequality, even though it is now believed that total remittance inflows into Nigeria exceed Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) and Overseas Development Assistance (ODA). The study finds remittance income to be more income equalizing in urban areas, and has more impact the higher the education level of the head of household

Prevalence and determinants of use of traditional methods of infertility treatment among women attending infertility clinic in Southeast Nigeria

Infertility, an obstacle to healthy living, makes its victims patronize traditional methods of infertility treatment (TMIT) in spite of associated complications. They turn to hospitals when this method fails. This is actually a serious issue because the presence of contaminated herbal products and the relationship between the use of TMIT and noncompliance with biomedical treatment regimens constitutes a major concern in medical practice. And the use of traditional methods of infertility treatment has been correlated with severe and fatal consequences. Therefore, the study assessed prevalence/determinants of TMIT use among patients visiting the gynaecology clinic at Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital Abakaliki (AE-FUTHA). Descriptive cross-sectional design was adopted for the research. Only 263 women took part in the study. The research instrument was questionnaire. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Findings revealed that 95.4% of these women have used traditional methods for infertility treatment and factors influencing infertile women’s use of TMIT are demographic characteristics, infertility duration, husbands’ relatives’ pressure and cheap cost of traditional medical treatment. Again, inability of infertile women to disclose TMIT use to healthcare providers makes effective treatment difficult. Therefore, these impediments expose infertile women to use TMIT. The result is a guide to healthcare providers who are expected to know the extent of their parents’ use of TMIT

Modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in context : An international participatory approach

Funding RA is funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1193472). LW is funded by the Li Ka Shing Foundation. CF is funded by grant #2017/26770-8, São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP). The CoMo Consortium has support from the Oxford University COVID-19 Research Response Fund (ref: 0009280). Scientific writing assistance and editorial support was provided by Adam Bodley, according to Good Publication Practice guidelines.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Mortality from gastrointestinal congenital anomalies at 264 hospitals in 74 low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries: a multicentre, international, prospective cohort study

Summary Background Congenital anomalies are the fifth leading cause of mortality in children younger than 5 years globally. Many gastrointestinal congenital anomalies are fatal without timely access to neonatal surgical care, but few studies have been done on these conditions in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We compared outcomes of the seven most common gastrointestinal congenital anomalies in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries globally, and identified factors associated with mortality. Methods We did a multicentre, international prospective cohort study of patients younger than 16 years, presenting to hospital for the first time with oesophageal atresia, congenital diaphragmatic hernia, intestinal atresia, gastroschisis, exomphalos, anorectal malformation, and Hirschsprung’s disease. Recruitment was of consecutive patients for a minimum of 1 month between October, 2018, and April, 2019. We collected data on patient demographics, clinical status, interventions, and outcomes using the REDCap platform. Patients were followed up for 30 days after primary intervention, or 30 days after admission if they did not receive an intervention. The primary outcome was all-cause, in-hospital mortality for all conditions combined and each condition individually, stratified by country income status. We did a complete case analysis. Findings We included 3849 patients with 3975 study conditions (560 with oesophageal atresia, 448 with congenital diaphragmatic hernia, 681 with intestinal atresia, 453 with gastroschisis, 325 with exomphalos, 991 with anorectal malformation, and 517 with Hirschsprung’s disease) from 264 hospitals (89 in high-income countries, 166 in middleincome countries, and nine in low-income countries) in 74 countries. Of the 3849 patients, 2231 (58·0%) were male. Median gestational age at birth was 38 weeks (IQR 36–39) and median bodyweight at presentation was 2·8 kg (2·3–3·3). Mortality among all patients was 37 (39·8%) of 93 in low-income countries, 583 (20·4%) of 2860 in middle-income countries, and 50 (5·6%) of 896 in high-income countries (p<0·0001 between all country income groups). Gastroschisis had the greatest difference in mortality between country income strata (nine [90·0%] of ten in lowincome countries, 97 [31·9%] of 304 in middle-income countries, and two [1·4%] of 139 in high-income countries; p≤0·0001 between all country income groups). Factors significantly associated with higher mortality for all patients combined included country income status (low-income vs high-income countries, risk ratio 2·78 [95% CI 1·88–4·11], p<0·0001; middle-income vs high-income countries, 2·11 [1·59–2·79], p<0·0001), sepsis at presentation (1·20 [1·04–1·40], p=0·016), higher American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score at primary intervention (ASA 4–5 vs ASA 1–2, 1·82 [1·40–2·35], p<0·0001; ASA 3 vs ASA 1–2, 1·58, [1·30–1·92], p<0·0001]), surgical safety checklist not used (1·39 [1·02–1·90], p=0·035), and ventilation or parenteral nutrition unavailable when needed (ventilation 1·96, [1·41–2·71], p=0·0001; parenteral nutrition 1·35, [1·05–1·74], p=0·018). Administration of parenteral nutrition (0·61, [0·47–0·79], p=0·0002) and use of a peripherally inserted central catheter (0·65 [0·50–0·86], p=0·0024) or percutaneous central line (0·69 [0·48–1·00], p=0·049) were associated with lower mortality. Interpretation Unacceptable differences in mortality exist for gastrointestinal congenital anomalies between lowincome, middle-income, and high-income countries. Improving access to quality neonatal surgical care in LMICs will be vital to achieve Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 of ending preventable deaths in neonates and children younger than 5 years by 2030