Stochastic Modeling of Short-term Occupancy for Energy Efficient Buildings

The primary energy consumer of smart buildings are Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems, approximately 30% of the building energy use, which usually operate on a fixed schedule. Currently, most modern buildings still condition rooms with a set-point assuming maximum occupancy rather than actual usage. As a result, rooms are often over-conditioned needlessly. Occupancy-based controls can achieve significant energy savings by temporally matching the building energy consumption and building usage, conservative user behavior can save a third of expended energy.  In this paper, we present a simple yet effective algorithm to automatically assign reference temperature set-points based on the occupancy information. Both the binary and detailed occupancy estimation cases are considered. In the first case study, we assume the schedule involves only binary states (occupied or not occupied), i.e. the room is invariant. With long-term observations occupancy levels can be estimated using statistical tools. In the second case study, three techniques are introduced. Firstly, we propose an identification-based approaches. More precisely, we identify the models via Expectation Maximization (EM) approach. The statistical state space model is built in linear form for the mapping between the occupancy measurements and real occupancy states with noise considered. Secondly, we propose a method based on uncertain basis functions for modeling and prediction purposes. In literature, basis functions (e.g., radial basis functions, wavelets) are fixed; instead, we assume that the basis functions are random. We consider basis functions with three different distributions, which are Gaussian, Laplace and Uniform, respectively. Finally, we introduce a novel finite state automata (FSA) which is successfully reconstructed by general systems problem solver (GSPS). As far as we know, no studies have used the finite state machine or general system theory to estimate occupancy in buildings. All above estimates can be used to adaptively update the temperature set-points for HVAC control strategy.  To demonstrate effectiveness of proposed approach, a simulation-based experimental analysis is carried out using occupancy data. We define the estimation accuracy as the total number of correct estimations divided by the total number of estimations, and both Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and estimation accuracy analysis are provided. All the proposed estimation techniques could achieve at least 70% accuracy rate. Generally, accuracy for binary states estimation is much higher than that of detailed occupancy. For GSPS model, more training data improves performance of estimation. It should be remarked that although some mismatch exist for non-zero jumps, estimation performance tracks the zero base line (non-occupied status) perfectly. Therefore, the estimation techniques are effective for binary estimation with over 90% accuracy. Finally, the estimated occupancy is applied into temperature set algorithm to generate reference temperature curve. By adjusting temperature set curve, we can achieve significant energy without sacrificing customer’s comfort.  In this paper, we propose three real-time occupancy estimation methods that can be incorporated into HVAC controls . We have shown the effectiveness of all the proposed approaches by simulation examples. We have seen great potential of energy saving by integrating the proposed technique into real HVAC control system.   Â

Real Time Simulation of Power Grid Disruptions

DOE-OE and DOE-SC workshops (Reference 1-3) identified the key power grid problem that requires insight addressable by the next generation of exascale computing is coupling of real-time data streams (1-2 TB per hour) as the streams are ingested to dynamic models. These models would then identify predicted disruptions in time (2-4 seconds) to trigger the smart grid s self healing functions. This project attempted to establish the feasibility of this approach and defined the scientific issues, and demonstrated example solutions to important smart grid simulation problems. These objectives were accomplished by 1) using the existing frequency recorders on the national grid to establish a representative and scalable real-time data stream; 2) invoking ORNL signature identification algorithms; 3) modeling dynamically a representative region of the Eastern interconnect using an institutional cluster, measuring the scalability and computational benchmarks for a national capability; and 4) constructing a prototype simulation for the system s concept of smart grid deployment. The delivered ORNL enduring capability included: 1) data processing and simulation metrics to design a national capability justifying exascale applications; 2) Software and intellectual property built around the example solutions; 3) demonstrated dynamic models to design few second self-healing

Cybersecurity through Real-Time Distributed Control Systems

Critical infrastructure sites and facilities are becoming increasingly dependent on interconnected physical and cyber-based real-time distributed control systems (RTDCSs). A mounting cybersecurity threat results from the nature of these ubiquitous and sometimes unrestrained communications interconnections. Much work is under way in numerous organizations to characterize the cyber threat, determine means to minimize risk, and develop mitigation strategies to address potential consequences. While it seems natural that a simple application of cyber-protection methods derived from corporate business information technology (IT) domain would lead to an acceptable solution, the reality is that the characteristics of RTDCSs make many of those methods inadequate and unsatisfactory or even harmful. A solution lies in developing a defense-in-depth approach that ranges from protection at communications interconnect levels ultimately to the control system s functional characteristics that are designed to maintain control in the face of malicious intrusion. This paper summarizes the nature of RTDCSs from a cybersecurity perspec tive and discusses issues, vulnerabilities, candidate mitigation approaches, and metrics

Augmenting Epidemiological Models with Point-Of-Care Diagnostics Data.

Although adoption of newer Point-of-Care (POC) diagnostics is increasing, there is a significant challenge using POC diagnostics data to improve epidemiological models. In this work, we propose a method to process zip-code level POC datasets and apply these processed data to calibrate an epidemiological model. We specifically develop a calibration algorithm using simulated annealing and calibrate a parsimonious equation-based model of modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The results show that parsimonious models are remarkably effective in predicting the dynamics observed in the number of infected patients and our calibration algorithm is sufficiently capable of predicting peak loads observed in POC diagnostics data while staying within reasonable and empirical parameter ranges reported in the literature. Additionally, we explore the future use of the calibrated values by testing the correlation between peak load and population density from Census data. Our results show that linearity assumptions for the relationships among various factors can be misleading, therefore further data sources and analysis are needed to identify relationships between additional parameters and existing calibrated ones. Calibration approaches such as ours can determine the values of newly added parameters along with existing ones and enable policy-makers to make better multi-scale decisions

2010), “Control and estimation through cognitive radio with distributed and dynamic spectral activity,” ACC

Abstract-Cognitive radio systems are currently a popular topic and are a good prospect for research when combined with control technology. In this paper, we consider the control and estimation via a two switch model which can represent a cognitive radio system. We provide an optimal estimator for this model and demonstrate that the optimal LQG controller is not a linear gain of the estimate of the states, as well as showing how the separation principle does not hold. Several conditions of stability are also discussed. Numerical examples are provided to verify the results

Spearman correlation coefficients during AUTUMN outbreak.

<p>Spearman correlation coefficients during AUTUMN outbreak.</p