Saving-Economic Growth Nexus In Nigeria, 1970-2007: Granger Causality And Co-Integration Analyses

The controversy surrounding the direction of causality between saving and economic growth motivated this study. The author employed the Granger-causality and co-integration techniques to analyze the relationship between saving and economic growth in Nigeria during the period 1970-2007. The Johansen co-integration test indicates that the variables (economic growth and saving) are co-integrated, and that a long-run equilibrium exists between them. In addition, the granger causality test reveals that causality runs from economic growth to saving, implying that economic growth precedes and granger causes saving. Thus, we reject the Solow’s hypothesis that saving precedes economic growth, and accept the Keynesian theory that t is economic growth that leads to higher saving. The author recommends that government and policy makers should employ policies that would accelerate economic growth so as to increase saving.economic growth, saving, granger causality, co-integration.

Does Stock Market Development Raise Economic Growth? Evidence from Nigeria

This paper investigates whether stock market development raises economic growth in Nigeria, by employing the error correction approach. The econometric results indicate that stock market development (market capitalization-GDP ratio) increases economic growth. The recommendations therein include - removal of impediments to stock market development which include tax, legal, and regulatory barriers; development of the nation's infrastructure to create an enabling environment for where business can strive; employment of policies that will increase the productivity and efficiency of firms as well encourage them to access capital on the stock market; enhancement of the capacity of the Nigeria Security and Exchange Commission to facilitate the growth of the stock market, restore the confidence of stock market participants and safeguard the interest of shareholders by checking sharp practices of market operators (particularly speculators).Market, efficiency, productivity, stock market, market operators

The effects of corruption and political instability on saving: The case economic community of West African States

Despite the abundant research on savings and its determinants, little has been done to examine the effects of corruption and political instability on savings, particularly in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), one of the most corrupt and politically unstable regions in the world. The objectives of this study include investigating the effects of corruption and political instability on savings, in addition to examining whether the effects of corruption and political instability on savings depend on income levels in the ECOWAS from 1996 to 2012. Using the Panel Corrected Standard Error (PCSE) and the Two Stage Least Squares (TSLS) instrumental variables techniques that take into account random effects, the results indicate that lesser corruption and higher political stability have a significant and positive effect on savings, and the effects of corruption and political instability on savings depend on income levels. These suggest that at high income levels, the negative impact of corruption and political instability on savings is lower, but at low income levels, the negative impact of corruption and political instability on savings is higher in the ECOWAS. In addition, income level, income growth, real interest rate and inflation rate have positive and significant effects on savings. However, the percentage share of agriculture in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has a negative effect on savings. The study recommends policies to reduce corruption and political instability to raise savings. In addition, raising incomes would reduce the adverse effects of corruption and political instability on savings and also raise savings in the ECOWA

An empirical investigation of the effect of corruption on domestic savings in Nigeria

This study assesses the impact of corruption on Nigeria’s domestic savings. To this end, an ARDL technique was employed to analyze quarterly data for the 1996–2019 period. We find evidence of a long-term relationship between domestic savings and corruption (along with income growth, income level, inflation rate, deposit interest rate, unemployment rate including oil price). The empirical results indicate that lowering corruption level raises domestic savings over the long-term. Other important factors that drive domestic savings over the long-run in Nigeria are income level, deposit interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment rate as well as oil price. Having established the major factors that affect domestic savings, some recommendations are offered to encourage saving mobilization in Nigeria

How Does Pensions Affect Savings in Nigeria? Evidence from Quarterly Data

This study investigates the effect of pensions on savings in Nigeria using quarterly data over the 2004-2015 period. Employing the ARDL bounds testing technique, the empirical evidence reveal that there is cointegration between pensions and savings, along with internal conflicts, unemployment, real interest rate and income level. The results indicate that pensions has a negative and significant effect on savings in the short-run, while its effect on savings is positive and significant in the long-run. These findings suggest that the availability of pensions will displace savings in the short-run, while it provides an avenue for individuals to increase their retirement income in the long-run, leading to higher national savings. In addition, internal conflicts and unemployment have a negative and significant effect on savings in the short-run and the long-run. Based on these findings, this study recommends policies to promote pension contributions, including reducing internal conflicts and unemployment to raise savings in Nigeria in the long-run.JEL Codes - E21; F51; H53; H5

Long-Term Asymmetric Impact of VAT on Domestic Investment in Nigeria

We employ a non-linear ARDL (NARDL) technique to explore long-term asymmetric influence of value added tax (VAT) on domestic investment using quarterly data for Nigeria from 1994 to 2021. A long-term relation was found between domestic investment and VAT (alongside lending and inflation rates, credit to private sector, exchange rate, openness and households’ consumption expenditure) based on the bounds test to cointegration. We uncovered a long-term asymmetric association between domestic investment and VAT. The results show that a positive shock (an increase) in VAT has a long-term decrease and significant influence on domestic investment, while a negative shock (a decrease) in VAT has an insignificant positive influence on investment during the long-term. Other significant long-term drivers of domestic investment are credit to private sector, inflation and lending rates, openness, exchange rate and households’ consumption expenditure. Some recommendations have been offered based on the empirical outcomes

Non-Linear Effect of Government Debt on Public Expenditure in Nigeria: Insight from Bootstrap ARDL Procedure

This study employs the bootstrap autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach alongside the dynamic ARDL simulations technique to investigate the non-linear effect of public debt on public expenditure in Nigeria during the 1981–2020 period. The result of the bootstrap bounds test illustrates the presence of a long-term relationship between public expenditure and public debt (along with oil rents, output growth and urbanisation). Further, the estimation results indicate that the effect of public debt on public expenditure is non-linear. In particular, public expenditure increases at early stages of rising public debt but declines at latter phases when public debt grows beyond specific threshold. This empirical outcome is further validated by the dynamic ARDL simulations approach which shows a significant decline in predicted public expenditure after short-term expansion due to counterfactual shock in public debt. Thus, policies which diversify public revenue from oil production and a reversal of the rising trend in public debt are recommended to avert the adverse welfare implications of declining public expenditure

Low savings rates in the economic community of West African States (Ecowas): The role of the political instability-income interaction

This paper employs PCSE, OLS and TSLS with random effects to investigate the impact of the political instabilityincome interaction on savings in ECOWAS countries during the period 1996-2012.The empirical evidence illustrates that higher political stability is associated with higher savings and income levels moderate the adverse effect of political instability on savings, indicating that the impact of political instability on savings is higher in low income ECOWAS countries, but lesser at higher levels of income. The paper recommends the promotion of political stability via increases in incomes to raise savings in the ECOWAS region

An Application Of Granger Causlity And Co-Integration Techniques

În articol se examinează legăturile cazuale dintre investiţiile directe străine şi creşterea economică din Nigeria (anii 1970-200