Strong Gravitational Lensing by Sgr A*

In recent years, there has been increasing recognition of the potential of the galactic center as a probe of general relativity in the strong field. There is almost certainly a black hole at Sgr A* in the galactic center, and this would allow us the opportunity to probe dynamics near the exterior of the black hole. In the last decade, there has been research into extreme gravitational lensing in the galactic center. Unlike in most applications of gravitational lensing, where the bending angle is of the order of several arc seconds, very large bending angles are possible for light that closely approaches a black hole. Photons may even loop multiple times around a black hole before reaching the observer. There have been many proposals to use light's close approach to the black hole as a probe of the black hole metric. Of particular interest is the property of light lensed by the S stars orbiting in the galactic center. This paper will review some of the attempts made to study extreme lensing as well as extend the analysis of lensing by S stars. In particular, we are interested in the effect of a Reissner-Nordstrom like 1/r^2 term in the metric and how this would affect the properties of relativistic images.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures. Submitted as invited review article for the GR19 issue of CQ

Atomic spectral-product representations of molecular electronic structure: metric matrices and atomic-product composition of molecular eigenfunctions

Recent progress is reported in development of ab initio computational methods for the electronic structures of molecules employing the many-electron eigenstates of constituent atoms in spectral-product forms. The approach provides a universal atomic-product description of the electronic structure of matter as an alternative to more commonly employed valence-bond- or molecular-orbital-based representations. The Hamiltonian matrix in this representation is seen to comprise a sum over atomic energies and a pairwise sum over Coulombic interaction terms that depend only on the separations of the individual atomic pairs. Overall electron antisymmetry can be enforced by unitary transformation when appropriate, rather than as a possibly encumbering or unnecessary global constraint. The matrix representative of the antisymmetrizer in the spectral-product basis, which is equivalent to the metric matrix of the corresponding explicitly antisymmetric basis, provides the required transformation to antisymmetric or linearly independent states after Hamiltonian evaluation. Particular attention is focused in the present report on properties of the metric matrix and on the atomic-product compositions of molecular eigenstates as described in the spectral-product representations. Illustrative calculations are reported for simple but prototypically important diatomic (H_2, CH) and triatomic (H_3, CH_2) molecules employing algorithms and computer codes devised recently for this purpose. This particular implementation of the approach combines Slater-orbital-based one- and two-electron integral evaluations, valence-bond constructions of standard tableau functions and matrices, and transformations to atomic eigenstate-product representations. The calculated metric matrices and corresponding potential energy surfaces obtained in this way elucidate a number of aspects of the spectral-product development, including the nature of closure in the representation, the general redundancy or linear dependence of its explicitly antisymmetrized form, the convergence of the apparently disparate atomic-product and explicitly antisymmetrized atomic-product forms to a common invariant subspace, and the nature of a chemical bonding descriptor provided by the atomic-product compositions of molecular eigenstates. Concluding remarks indicate additional studies in progress and the prognosis for performing atomic spectral-product calculations more generally and efficiently

FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF FOREIGN TOURISM IN BALI USING THE HYBRID HOLT-WINTERS-ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK METHOD

Bali was one of the destinations frequently visited by tourists because it had natural beauty, especially in the tourism sector. The number of foreign tourists coming to Bali until 2019 had increased, but there had been a very significant decrease in 2020. Forecasting the number of tourists coming to Bali in the future was needed to provide input or recommendations to the government and business people in anticipating decisions taken in the process of developing the tourism sector in Bali. One of the forecasting methods that can be used was the Holt-Winters method. The Holt-Winters method was part of Exponential Smoothing which is based on smoothing stationary, trend and seasonal elements. However, the Holt-Winters method can only capture linear patterns, so a method was needed that can capture non-linear patterns. The Artificial Neural Network method was proposed to overcome the shortcomings of the Holt-Winters Method. This research was focused on the number of foreign tourists visiting Bali using the Hybrid Holt Winters-Artificial Neural Network method. The results showed that the data on the number of foreign tourists fluctuated every month. The best method for predicting the number of foreign tourists was the Hybrid Holt-Winters (α = 0.987, β = 0.000001, and γ = 1)-Artificial Neural Network (12-15-1) because it has the best accuracy as indicated by the MAD value of 0.036684, MSE 0.01098698 and MAPE 6.30417%

Early characterization of the severity and transmissibility of pandemic influenza using clinical episode data from multiple populations

The potential rapid availability of large-scale clinical episode data during the next influenza pandemic suggests an opportunity for increasing the speed with which novel respiratory pathogens can be characterized. Key intervention decisions will be determined by both the transmissibility of the novel strain (measured by the basic reproductive number R0) and its individual-level severity. The 2009 pandemic illustrated that estimating individual-level severity, as described by the proportion pC of infections that result in clinical cases, can remain uncertain for a prolonged period of time. Here, we use 50 distinct US military populations during 2009 as a retrospective cohort to test the hypothesis that real-time encounter data combined with disease dynamic models can be used to bridge this uncertainty gap. Effectively, we estimated the total number of infections in multiple early-affected communities using the model and divided that number by the known number of clinical cases. Joint estimates of severity and transmissibility clustered within a relatively small region of parameter space, with 40 of the 50 populations bounded by: pC, 0.0133-0.150 and R0, 1.09-2.16. These fits were obtained despite widely varying incidence profiles: some with spring waves, some with fall waves and some with both. To illustrate the benefit of specific pairing of rapidly available data and infectious disease models, we simulated a future moderate pandemic strain with pC approximately ×10 that of 2009; the results demonstrating that even before the peak had passed in the first affected population, R0 and pC could be well estimated. This study provides a clear reference in this two-dimensional space against which future novel respiratory pathogens can be rapidly assessed and compared with previous pandemics

Theoretical Spectra and Atmospheres of Extrasolar Giant Planets

We present a comprehensive theory of the spectra and atmospheres of irradiated extrasolar giant planets. We explore the dependences on stellar type, orbital distance, cloud characteristics, planet mass, and surface gravity. Phase-averaged spectra for specific known extrasolar giant planets that span a wide range of the relevant parameters are calculated, plotted, and discussed. The connection between atmospheric composition and emergent spectrum is explored in detail. Furthermore, we calculate the effect of stellar insolation on brown dwarfs. We review a variety of representative observational techniques and programs for their potential for direct detection, in light of our theoretical expectations, and we calculate planet-to-star flux ratios as a function of wavelength. Our results suggest which spectral features are most diagnostic of giant planet atmospheres and reveal the best bands in which to image planets of whatever physical or orbital characteristics.Comment: 47 pages, plus 36 postscript figures; with minor revisions, accepted to the Astrophysical Journal, May 10, 2003 issu

Ultrafast x-ray and electron diffraction: theoretical considerations

Time-dependent ultrafast diffraction measurements can be directly inverted to obtain the dynamics of atomic motions, in contrast to ultrafast spectra which require detailed knowledge of the sample (e.g., potential energy surfaces) for their inversion. We consider here how to derive time-dependent diffraction (the X-ray and electron diffraction cases being very similar) from nuclear quantum dynamics and vice versa and how this may be used to directly observe the atomic motions in molecules, in particular how chemical reactions take place. Two simple examples of dissociative and bound quantum (vibrational and rotational) dynamics in a gas-phase sample of diatomic molecules, excited by an optical pump pulse and measured by an electron or X-ray probe pulse, are presented. The quantum mechanical basis of the breaking of symmetry due to the linearly polarized optical pump pulse and the superposition and interference between the ground and excited electronic states are discussed. We demonstrate how to isolate the short-time excited-state dynamics from that of the ground state using the symmetry of the electronic dipole transition. We illustrate that the timeevolving distribution of interatomic distances can be clearly resolved from the ultrafast diffraction data and thus illustrate that the detailed dynamics of molecular vibration and the progress of a photodissociation reaction could be watched as they occur. In addition, we show that the duration of ultrafast X-ray and electron pulses can be measured with a time resolution of tens of femtoseconds by clocking it against such atomic motion

Albedo and Reflection Spectra of Extrasolar Giant Planets

We generate theoretical albedo and reflection spectra for a full range of extrasolar giant planet (EGP) models, from Jovian to 51-Pegasi class objects. Our albedo modeling utilizes the latest atomic and molecular cross sections, a Mie theory treatment of extinction by condensates, a variety of particle size distributions, and an extension of the Feautrier radiative transfer method which allows for a general treatment of the scattering phase function. We find that due to qualitative similarities in the compositions and spectra of objects within each of five broad effective temperature ranges, it is natural to establish five representative EGP albedo classes: a ``Jovian'' class (T$_{\rm eff} \lesssim 150$ K; Class I) with tropospheric ammonia clouds, a ``water cloud'' class (T$_{\rm eff} \sim 250$ K; Class II) primarily affected by condensed H$_2$O, a ``clear'' class (T$_{\rm eff} \gtrsim 350$ K; Class III) which lacks clouds, and two high-temperature classes: Class IV (900 K $\lesssim$ T$_{\rm{eff}}$ $\lesssim$ 1500 K) for which alkali metal absorption predominates, and Class V (T$_{\rm{eff}}$ $\gtrsim$ 1500 K and/or low surface gravity ($\lesssim$ 10$^3$ cm s$^{-2}$)) for which a high silicate layer shields a significant fraction of the incident radiation from alkali metal and molecular absorption. The resonance lines of sodium and potassium are expected to be salient features in the reflection spectra of Class III, IV, and V objects. We derive Bond albedos and effective temperatures for the full set of known EGPs and explore the possible effects of non-equilibrium condensed products of photolysis above or within principal cloud decks. As in Jupiter, such species can lower the UV/blue albedo substantially, even if present in relatively small mixing ratios.Comment: revised LaTeX manuscript accepted to Ap.J.; also available at http://jupiter.as.arizona.edu/~burrows/paper

A low-temperature origin for the planetesimals that formed Jupiter

The four giant planets in the Solar System have abundances of 'metals' (elements heavier than helium), relative to hydrogen, that are much higher than observed in the Sun. In order to explain this, all models for the formation of these planets rely on an influx of solid planetesimals(17). It is generally assumed that these planetesimals were similar, if not identical, to the comets from the Oort cloud that we see today. Comets that formed in the region of the giant planets should not have contained much neon, argon and nitrogen, because the temperatures were too high for these volatile gases to be trapped effectively in ice. This means that the abundances of those elements on the giant planets should be approximately solar. Here we show that argon, krypton and xenon in Jupiter's atmosphere are enriched to the same extent as the other heavy elements, which suggests that the planetesimals carrying these elements must have formed at temperatures lower than predicted by present models of giant-planet formation.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62913/1/402269a0.pd

Guidelines and recommendations on yeast cell death nomenclature

Elucidating the biology of yeast in its full complexity has major implications for science, medicine and industry. One of the most critical processes determining yeast life and physiology is cellular demise. However, the investigation of yeast cell death is a relatively young field, and a widely accepted set of concepts and terms is still missing. Here, we propose unified criteria for the definition of accidental, regulated, and programmed forms of cell death in yeast based on a series of morphological and biochemical criteria. Specifically, we provide consensus guidelines on the differential definition of terms including apoptosis, regulated necrosis, and autophagic cell death, as we refer to additional cell death routines that are relevant for the biology of (at least some species of) yeast. As this area of investigation advances rapidly, changes and extensions to this set of recommendations will be implemented in the years to come. Nonetheless, we strongly encourage the authors, reviewers and editors of scientific articles to adopt these collective standards in order to establish an accurate framework for yeast cell death research and, ultimately, to accelerate the progress of this vibrant field of research