Turkey in Europe Monitor. January 2004-February 2005, No.s 1-14. CEPS EU-Turkey Working Papers, No. 15

In the year preceding the European Council’s historic decision to open accession negotiations with Turkey in December 2004 and its immediate aftermath, CEPS published a monthly electronic bulletin containing essays, research papers, speeches and official documents that reflected the concerns and advances during this critical period in the relationship between Turkey and the EU. The aim of the Turkey in Europe Monitor was to present objective and in-depth evaluations of developments in the relationship between Turkey and the European Union, and Turkish policies undertaken with a view to EU membership. These 14 monthly issues of the Turkey in Europe Monitor have now been brought together in this single volume, edited by Michael Emerson and Senem Aydın

Observing gravitational-wave transient GW150914 with minimal assumptions

The gravitational-wave signal GW150914 was first identified on September 14, 2015, by searches for short-duration gravitational-wave transients. These searches identify time-correlated transients in multiple detectors with minimal assumptions about the signal morphology, allowing them to be sensitive to gravitational waves emitted by a wide range of sources including binary black hole mergers. Over the observational period from September 12 to October 20, 2015, these transient searches were sensitive to binary black hole mergers similar to GW150914 to an average distance of ∼600 Mpc. In this paper, we describe the analyses that first detected GW150914 as well as the parameter estimation and waveform reconstruction techniques that initially identified GW150914 as the merger of two black holes. We find that the reconstructed waveform is consistent with the signal from a binary black hole merger with a chirp mass of ∼30 M and a total mass before merger of ∼70 M in the detector frame.The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the United States National Science Foundation (NSF) for the construction and operation of the LIGO Laboratory and Advanced LIGO as well as the Science and Technology Facilities Council (STFC) of the United Kingdom, the MaxPlanck-Society (MPS), and the State of Niedersachsen/ Germany for support of the construction of Advanced LIGO and construction and operation of the GEO 600 detector. Additional support for Advanced LIGO was provided by the Australian Research Council. The authors gratefully acknowledge the Italian Istituto Nazionale di Fisica Nucleare (INFN), the French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) and the Foundation for Fundamental Research on Matter supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, for the construction and operation of the Virgo detector and the creation and support of the EGO consortium. The authors also gratefully acknowledge research support from these agencies as well as by the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research of India, Department of Science and Technology, India; Science & Engineering Research Board (SERB), India; Ministry of Human Resource Development, India; the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad; the Conselleria d’Economia i Competitivitat and Conselleria d’Educació; Cultura i Universitats of the Govern de les Illes Balears; the National Science Centre of Poland; the European Commission; the Royal Society; the Scottish Funding Council; the Scottish Universities Physics Alliance; the Hungarian Scientific Research Fund (OTKA); the Lyon Institute of Origins (LIO); the National Research Foundation of Korea; Industry Canada and the Province of Ontario through the Ministry of Economic Development and Innovation; the National Science and Engineering Research Council Canada; Canadian Institute for Advanced Research; the Brazilian Ministry of Science, Technology, and Innovation; Russian Foundation for Basic Research; the Leverhulme Trust; the Research Corporation; Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST), Taiwan; and the Kavli Foundation. The authors gratefully acknowledge the support of the NSF, STFC, MPS, INFN, CNRS and the State of Niedersachsen/Germany for provision of computational resources. This article has been assigned the document number LIGO-P1500229

People-Powered Research and Experiential Learning: Unravelling Hidden Biodiversity

Globally, thousands of institutions house nearly three billion scientific collections offering unparallelled resources that contribute to both science and society. For herbaria alone - facilities housing dried plant collections - there are over 3,000 herbaria worldwide with an estimated 350 million specimens that have been collected over the past four centuries. Digitisation has greatly enhanced the use of herbarium data in scientific research, impacting diverse research areas, including biodiversity informatics, global climate change, analyses using next-generation sequencing technologies and many others. Despite the entrance of herbaria into a new era with enhanced scientific, educational and societal relevance, museum specimens remain underused. Natural history museums can enhance learning and engagement in science, particularly for school-age and undergraduate students. Here, we outline a novel approach of a natural history museum using touchscreen technology that formed part of an interactive kiosk in a temporary museum exhibit on biological specimens. We provide some preliminary analysis investigating the efficacy of the tool, based on the Zooniverse platform, in an exhibit environment to engage patrons in the collection of biological data. We conclude there is great potential in using crowd‐sourced science, coupled with online technology to unlock data and information from digital images of natural history specimens themselves. Sixty percent of the records generated by community scientists (citizen scientists) were of high enough quality to be utilised by researchers. All age groups produced valid, high quality data that could be used by researchers, including children (10 and under), teens and adults. Significantly, the paper outlines the implementation of experiential learning through an undergraduate mathematics course that focuses on projects with actual data to gain a deep, practical knowledge of the subject, including observations, the collection of data, analysis and problem solving. We here promote an intergenerational model including children, high school students, undergraduate students, early career scientists and senior scientists, combining experiential learning, museum patrons, researchers and data derived from natural history collections. Natural history museums with their dual remit of education and collections-based research can play a significant role in the field of community engagement and people-powered research. There also remains much to investigate on the use of interactive displays to help learners interpret and appreciate authentic research. We conclude with a brief insight into the next phase of our ongoing people-powered research activities developed and designed by high school students using the Zooniverse platform

Apprehensions and Possible Misunderstandings

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The LargE Area Burst Polarimeter (LEAP) a NASA Mission of Opportunity for the ISS

The LargE Area Burst Polarimeter (LEAP) will radically improve our understanding of some of the most energetic phenomena in our Universe by exposing the underlying physics that governs astrophysical jets and the extreme environment surrounding newborn compact objects. LEAP will do this by making the highest fidelity polarization measurements to date of the prompt gamma-ray emission from a large sample of Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs). The science objectives are met with a single instrument deployed as an external payload on the ISS-a wide FOV Compton polarimeter that measures GRB polarization from 50-500 keV and GRB spectra from ∼10 keV to 5 MeV. LEAP measures polarization using seven independent polarimeter modules, each with a 12x12 array of optically isolated high-Z and low-Z scintillation detectors readout by individual PMTs. LEAP is one of two NASA Missions of Opportunity proposals that are currently in a Phase A Concept Study, with a final selection due later this year

Global, Regional, and National Burden of Diabetes from 1990 to 2021, With Projections of Prevalence to 2050: a Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Diabetes is one of the leading causes of death and disability worldwide, and affects people regardless of country, age group, or sex. Using the most recent evidentiary and analytical framework from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), we produced location-specific, age-specific, and sex-specific estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden from 1990 to 2021, the proportion of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in 2021, the proportion of the type 2 diabetes burden attributable to selected risk factors, and projections of diabetes prevalence through 2050. Methods: Estimates of diabetes prevalence and burden were computed in 204 countries and territories, across 25 age groups, for males and females separately and combined; these estimates comprised lost years of healthy life, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; defined as the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] and years lived with disability [YLDs]). We used the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) approach to estimate deaths due to diabetes, incorporating 25 666 location-years of data from vital registration and verbal autopsy reports in separate total (including both type 1 and type 2 diabetes) and type-specific models. Other forms of diabetes, including gestational and monogenic diabetes, were not explicitly modelled. Total and type 1 diabetes prevalence was estimated by use of a Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, to analyse 1527 location-years of data from the scientific literature, survey microdata, and insurance claims; type 2 diabetes estimates were computed by subtracting type 1 diabetes from total estimates. Mortality and prevalence estimates, along with standard life expectancy and disability weights, were used to calculate YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs. When appropriate, we extrapolated estimates to a hypothetical population with a standardised age structure to allow comparison in populations with different age structures. We used the comparative risk assessment framework to estimate the risk-attributable type 2 diabetes burden for 16 risk factors falling under risk categories including environmental and occupational factors, tobacco use, high alcohol use, high body-mass index (BMI), dietary factors, and low physical activity. Using a regression framework, we forecast type 1 and type 2 diabetes prevalence through 2050 with Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and high BMI as predictors, respectively. Findings: In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500–564) people living with diabetes worldwide, and the global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8–6·5). At the super-region level, the highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7–9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5–13·0]). Nationally, Qatar had the world\u27s highest age-specific prevalence of diabetes, at 76·1% (73·1–79·5) in individuals aged 75–79 years. Total diabetes prevalence—especially among older adults—primarily reflects type 2 diabetes, which in 2021 accounted for 96·0% (95·1–96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9–95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. In 2021, 52·2% (25·5–71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24·3% (18·5–30·4) worldwide between 1990 and 2021. By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22–1·39) people are projected to have diabetes, with expected age-standardised total diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10% in two super-regions: 16·8% (16·1–17·6) in north Africa and the Middle East and 11·3% (10·8–11·9) in Latin America and Caribbean. By 2050, 89 (43·6%) of 204 countries and territories will have an age-standardised rate greater than 10%. Interpretation: Diabetes remains a substantial public health issue. Type 2 diabetes, which makes up the bulk of diabetes cases, is largely preventable and, in some cases, potentially reversible if identified and managed early in the disease course. However, all evidence indicates that diabetes prevalence is increasing worldwide, primarily due to a rise in obesity caused by multiple factors. Preventing and controlling type 2 diabetes remains an ongoing challenge. It is essential to better understand disparities in risk factor profiles and diabetes burden across populations, to inform strategies to successfully control diabetes risk factors within the context of multiple and complex drivers. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Developing Methods to Detect and Diagnose Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy During Life: Rationale, Design, and Methodology for the DIAGNOSE CTE Research Project

Background: Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease that has been neuropathologically diagnosed in brain donors exposed to repetitive head impacts, including boxers and American football, soccer, ice hockey, and rugby players. CTE cannot yet be diagnosed during life. In December 2015, the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke awarded a seven-year grant (U01NS093334) to fund the “Diagnostics, Imaging, and Genetics Network for the Objective Study and Evaluation of Chronic Traumatic Encephalopathy (DIAGNOSE CTE) Research Project.” The objectives of this multicenter project are to: develop in vivo fluid and neuroimaging biomarkers for CTE; characterize its clinical presentation; refine and validate clinical research diagnostic criteria (i.e., traumatic encephalopathy syndrome [TES]); examine repetitive head impact exposure, genetic, and other risk factors; and provide shared resources of anonymized data and biological samples to the research community. In this paper, we provide a detailed overview of the rationale, design, and methods for the DIAGNOSE CTE Research Project. Methods: The targeted sample and sample size was 240 male participants, ages 45–74, including 120 former professional football players, 60 former collegiate football players, and 60 asymptomatic participants without a history of head trauma or participation in organized contact sports. Participants were evaluated at one of four U.S. sites and underwent the following baseline procedures: neurological and neuropsychological examinations; tau and amyloid positron emission tomography; magnetic resonance imaging and spectroscopy; lumbar puncture; blood and saliva collection; and standardized self-report measures of neuropsychiatric, cognitive, and daily functioning. Study partners completed similar informant-report measures. Follow-up evaluations were intended to be in-person and at 3 years post-baseline. Multidisciplinary diagnostic consensus conferences are held, and the reliability and validity of TES diagnostic criteria are examined. Results: Participant enrollment and all baseline evaluations were completed in February 2020. Three-year follow-up evaluations began in October 2019. However, in-person evaluation ceased with the COVID-19 pandemic, and resumed as remote, 4-year follow-up evaluations (including telephone-, online-, and videoconference-based cognitive, neuropsychiatric, and neurologic examinations, as well as in-home blood draw) in February 2021. Conclusions: Findings from the DIAGNOSE CTE Research Project should facilitate detection and diagnosis of CTE during life, and thereby accelerate research on risk factors, mechanisms, epidemiology, treatment, and prevention of CTE. Trial registration: NCT0279818

Educational Attainment of Same-Sex and Opposite-Sex Dizygotic Twins: An Individual-Level Pooled Study of 19 Twin Cohorts

Comparing twins from same- and opposite-sex pairs can provide information on potential sex differences in a variety of outcomes, including socioeconomic-related outcomes such as educational attainment. It has been suggested that this design can be applied to examine the putative role of intrauterine exposure to testosterone for educational attainment, but the evidence is still disputed. Thus, we established an international database of twin data from 11 countries with 88,290 individual dizygotic twins born over 100 years and tested for differences between twins from same- and opposite-sex dizygotic pairs in educational attainment. Effect sizes with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated by linear regression models after adjusting for birth year and twin study cohort. In contrast to the hypothesis, no difference was found in women (β = −0.05 educational years, 95% CI −0.11, 0.02). However, men with a same-sex co-twin were slightly more educated than men having an opposite-sex co-twin (β = 0.14 educational years, 95% CI 0.07, 0.21). No consistent differences in effect sizes were found between individual twin study cohorts representing Europe, the USA, and Australia or over the cohorts born during the 20th century, during which period the sex differences in education reversed favoring women in the latest birth cohorts. Further, no interaction was found with maternal or paternal education. Our results contradict the hypothesis that there would be differences in the intrauterine testosterone levels between same-sex and opposite-sex female twins affecting education. Our findings in men may point to social dynamics within same-sex twin pairs that may benefit men in their educational careers

Hierarchical Hough all-sky search for periodic gravitational waves in LIGO S5 data

We describe a new pipeline used to analyze the data from the fifth science run (S5) of the LIGO detectors to search for continuous gravitational waves from isolated spinning neutron stars. The method employed is based on the Hough transform, which is a semi-coherent, computationally efficient, and robust pattern recognition technique. The Hough transform is used to find signals in the time-frequency plane of the data whose frequency evolution fits the pattern produced by the Doppler shift imposed on the signal by the Earth's motion and the pulsar's spin-down during the observation period. The main differences with respect to previous Hough all-sky searches are described. These differences include the use of a two-step hierarchical Hough search, analysis of coincidences among the candidates produced in the first and second year of S5, and veto strategies based on a $\chi^2$ test.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, Amaldi08 proceedings, submitted to JPC