Trade Booms, Trade Busts, and Trade Costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs.

Trade costs, 1870–2000

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past century and a half? Was it changes in global output or in the costs of international trade? To address this question, we derive a micro-founded measure of aggregate bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade in terms of an implied markup on retail prices of foreign goods. Thus, we are able to estimate the combined magnitude of tariffs, transportation costs, and all other macroeconomic frictions that impede international trade but that are inherently difficult to observe. We use this measure to examine the growth of global trade between 1870 and 1913, its retreat from 1921 to 1939, and its subsequent rise from 1950 to 2000. We find that trade cost declines explain roughly 55 percent of the pre–World War I trade boom and 33 percent of the post–World War II trade boom, while a precipitous rise in trade costs explains the entire interwar trade bust

Trade booms, trade busts and trade costs

What has driven trade booms and trade busts in the past and present? We derive a micro-founded measure of trade frictions from leading trade theories and use it to gauge the importance of bilateral trade costs in determining international trade flows. We construct a new balanced sample of bilateral trade flows for 130 country pairs across the Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania for the period from 1870 to 2000 and demonstrate an overriding role for declining trade costs in the pre-World War I trade boom. In contrast, for the post-World War II trade boom we identify changes in output as the dominant force. Finally, the entirety of the interwar trade bust is explained by increases in trade costs

Trade and uncertainty

We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the idea of uncertainty shocks with international trade. In an open economy framework, firms order inputs from home and foreign suppliers, but with higher costs in the latter case. Due to fixed costs of ordering firms hold an inventory of inputs. In response to an uncertainty shock firms optimally adjust their inventory by cutting orders of foreign inputs disproportionately strongly. In the aggregate, this leads to a bigger contraction in international trade flows than in domestic activity, a magnification effect. We confront the model with newly-compiled U.S. import data and industrial production data going back to 1962, and also with disaggregated data at the industry level back to 1989. Our results suggest a tight link between uncertainty and fluctuations in international trade

Trade costs in the first wave of Globalization

What drives globalization today and in the past? We employ a new micro-founded measure of bilateral trade costs based on a standard model of trade in differentiated goods to address this question. These trade costs gauge the difference between observed bilateral trade and frictionless trade. They comprise tariffs, transportation costs and all other factors that impede international trade but which are inherently difficult to observe. Trade costs fell on average by ten to Þfteen percent between 1870 and 1913. We also use this measure to decompose the growth of global trade over that period and Þnd that roughly 44 percent of the global trade boom can be explained by reductions in trade costs; the remaining 56 percent is attributable to economic expansion

Motivasi Mahasiswa Akuntansi Dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Minat Untuk Mengikuti Pendidikan Profesi Akuntansi (Studi Empiris Di Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Mulawarman)

Penelitian ini bertujuan menguji pengaruh motivasi terhadap minat mahasiswa untuk mengikuti Pendidikan Profesi Akuntansi. Motivasi dalam penelitian ini terdiri dari motivasi kualitas, motivasi karir, dan motivasi ekonomi. Data diperoleh dengan menggunakan kuesioner yang disebarkan pada 88 responden sebagai sampel penelitian. Model analisis yang digunakan adalah analisis regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa motivasi kualitas dan motivasi karir berpengaruh secara positif terhadap minat mahasiswa untuk mengikuti Pendidikan Profesi Akuntansi. Akan tetapi, motivasi ekonomi berpengaruh secara negatif terhadap minat mahasiswa untuk mengikuti Pendidikan Profesi Akuntansi

Good Extractive Governance Sebuah Gagasan Untuk Kesejahteraan Masyarakat Wilayah Pertambangan Di Indonesia

Persoalan pertambangan selama ini menjadi ironi tersendiri bagi masyarakat, alih-alih memperoleh kesejahteraan dari dampak ekonomi yang ditimbulkan dari USAha pertambangan tersebut, justru melahirkan berbagai persoalan baru hingga konflik di tengah masyarakat. Tujuan utama kajian ini untuk mengembangkan gagasan good extractive governance untuk peningkatan kesejahteraan masyarakat di wilayah pertambangan. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif dengan metode penelitian deskriptif yang menggunakan teknik pengumpulan data berupa wawancara mendalam dan observasi di lapangan. Adapun hasil temuan dari tulisan ini antara lain, keberadaan sumber daya alam berupa migas selama ini lebih banyak memunculkan musibah seperti konflik, bencana lingkungan hingga kesenjangan ekonomi di masyarakat. Untuk memaksimalkan potensi sumber daya yang ada, perlu adanya komitmen yang kuat dari berbagai pihak untuk membentuk sebuah tata kelola pemerintahan yang baik di wilayah industri ekstraktif (Good Extractive Governance). Hal ini bisa dimulai dengan komitmen pemerintah dalam hal kedaulatan migas dan industri ekstraktif yang lain

Pengaruh Pengembangan Karir dan Pelatihan Kerja terhadap Kinerja Karyawan di PT. Ares Kusuma Raya

Penelitian ini dilakukan agar dapat mengetahui adanya pengaruh dari variabel pengembangankarir dan pelatihan kerja. Dengan mengambil sampel sebanyak 146 responden dan teknik yang yangada di dalam penelitian yaitu teknik nonaccidental sampling. Menggunakan kuesioner, kemudiandianalisis menggunakan SPSS versi 25 dengan menggunakan teknik uji regresi dan uji signifikansi.Hasil analisis uji-t disimpulkan mengenai variabel pengembangan karir dan variabel pelatihan kerjamempunyai pengaruh parsial dan signifikan kepada kinerja karyawan