45 research outputs found
Alternative scenarios for Hungary for the year 2025
The paper presents how the Committee on Futures Research, within Section IX. of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (HAS), sees the possible futures for Hungary for the year 2025, based on the expertise of Hungarian futurists and social scientists, including the opinions of younger generations. It offers insight to Hungarian society in 18 years from 2007, when the research began. In cooperation with experts coming from diverse scientific backgrounds and with those who feel responsibility for the future and are willing to act upon it, we need to continue discovering our horizon albeit in a different way and to embark on new roads. In summary, we need to change the HOW and the WHAT
Negyven éves a magyar jövőkutatás
A magyar jövőkutatás intézményesült fennállásának és egyetemi szintű
oktatásának 40 Ă©ves Ă©vfordulĂłját ĂĽnnepeltĂĽk 2008-ban. A RĂłmai Klub alapĂtásával
azonos évben, 1968 szeptemberében egyetemünk jogelődjén, a Marx Károly Közgazdaságtudományi Egyetemen, a Népgazdaság Tervezése Tanszéken Dr. Kovács Géza, tanszékvezető egyetemi tanár által a jövőkutatás témakörében
meghirdetett, kutatószemináriumként működő szakszeminárium
tekinthető az első meghatározó lépésnek a hazai jövőkutatás és annak oktatása terén. A sok tekintetben újszerű vállalkozásnak (ami adódott a jövőkutatás
mint sajátos ismerethalmaz és mint tudományterület újszerűségéből, valamint a kutatás és az oktatás sajátos szerves egységéből, azaz: az oktatómunkához
kapcsolódó tudományos kutatásban partnerségi alapon egyetemi
hallgatók is részt vettek) különösen erős volt akkor a kisugárzó hatása. Ez ösztönözte leginkább, volt hallgatóin keresztül is, a jövőkutatás további kutatóhelyeken,
egyetemeken valĂł megjelenĂ©sĂ©t Ă©s művelĂ©sĂ©t. Ez az oka annak is, hogy a hazai jövĹ‘kutatĂłk Ă©s a kĂĽlföldi jövĹ‘kutatási műhelyek is a Kovács GĂ©za professzor által alapĂtott kutatĂłhelyet tekintik a hazai jövĹ‘kutatás bölcsĹ‘jĂ©nek
Magyarország jövĹ‘je szakĂ©rtĹ‘i elĹ‘rejelzĂ©sekre Ă©s nem szakĂ©rtĹ‘i vĂ©lemĂ©nyekre Ă©pĂtve
A tanulmány a Magyar Tudományos AkadĂ©mia felkĂ©rĂ©sĂ©re 2007-2008. között kĂ©szĂtett, „Magyarország 2025” cĂmű kutatás eredmĂ©nyeit tárja az olvasĂł elĂ©. A modern jövĹ‘kutatás három mĂłdszertani elvĂ©t – komplexitás, participativitás Ă©s alternativitás – alkalmazza. Bemutatja a társadalom nĂ©hány jövĹ‘-Ă©rzĂ©keny terĂĽletĂ©n várhatĂł szakĂ©rtĹ‘i remĂ©nyeket Ă©s fĂ©lelmeket, valamint a millenniumi generáciĂł jövĹ‘-vĂ©lekedĂ©sĂ©re alapozott nĂ©gy forgatĂłkönyvet. A szakĂ©rtĹ‘i elĹ‘rejelzĂ©sek Ă©s a nem-szakĂ©rtĹ‘i vĂ©lemĂ©nyek közötti kölcsönkapcsolat szilárd alapot nyĂşjt jövĹ‘alternatĂvák Ă©s stratĂ©giák kimunkálásához
A népgazdaság és a társadalmi tulajdon elleni bűnözés előrejelzése – 30 év távlatából
Action oriented futures studies in Hungary
The significant social changes and unstable social–economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social–economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social–economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education
A participatĂv mĂłdszerek az interaktĂv jövĹ‘kutatásban
A tanulmány a modern jövőkutatás három olyan sajátosságát/tulajdonságát kapcsolja össze,
amelyek egyének, társadalmi intézmények jövőhöz való viszonyában meghatározóak
lehetnek. Ezek a jövőorientáltság, a participativitás és az interaktivitás. Logikailag is belátható
(Ă©s remĂ©lhetĹ‘leg empirikusan is bizonyĂthatĂł), hogy ezek között kölcsönös összefĂĽggĂ©s lĂ©tezik
Responsibility for the Future
Responsibility for the future can be closely linked to innovation and responsibility of entrepreneurship,
nevertheless we are all responsible for our future. Since futurists have a special role in catalysing social
changes and channelling actions for better futures, the present study analyses how the responsibility of
futurists is seen in our times, characterised by great and far-reaching changes, and how this activity is
enriched by elements of foresight. The responsibility of futurists lies in mapping out, communicating and
implementing future alternatives. Futurists also have considerable responsibility to convince people that
essential changes have to be accepted by the public
Chaos Theory and Socio-Economic Renewal in Hungary
We utilised methods of chaos theory that were originally used in a 1990’s study to analyse the
behaviour of various Hungarian socio-economic macro indicators, both historically and their expected
behaviour in the future. In this study, we present the method adapted to PC and the behaviour of the
selected macro indicators. We characterize the pathways our society and economy has experienced
and where they are heading to into the future by the means of these indicators. Comparing the present
results of analysis with the results twenty years ago (when today’s present was the future) we came
to the conclusion that most of the indicators became less chaotic, thus the socio-economic courses
were getting more stable over the past two decades. We conclude that the opportunity to change
them is slowly diminishing, it will be more and more difficult to renew the Hungarian socio-economic indicators, and to turn the processes to more desirable courses. Recommendations for change interventions are then provided
Changing attitudes to the future in Hungary
In the mid-1990s a theoretical definition of future orientation was elaborated by Hungarian futurists Nova´ ky, Hideg and Kappe´ ter to conduct empirical research on the
capacity of human foresight under given historical conditions. Future orientation is a way human thinking is manifested, where thoughts are filled with preconceptions, imagination and expectations. Our research has shown that the following component parts characterise future orientation: thinking about the future, applying regular social techniques to limit its uncertainty, actions taken in the interest of the future, and expectations concerning the future. Based on these component parts the future orientation of Hungarian society was studied empirically in 1995 and in 2006. Comparative analysis of the findings of the two surveys is presented below