The causes of stalling fertility transitions

An examination of fertility trends in countries with multiple DHS surveys found that in the 1990s fertility stalled in mid-transition in seven countries: Bangladesh, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ghana, Kenya, Peru, and Turkey. An analysis of trends in the determinants of fertility revealed a systematic pattern of leveling off or near leveling in a number of determinants, including contraceptive use, the demand for contraception, and wanted fertility. Findings suggest no major deterioration in contraceptive access during the stall, but levels of unmet need and unwanted fertility are relatively high and improvements in access to family planning methods would therefore be desirable. No significant link was found between the presence of a stall and trends in socioeconomic development, but at the onset of the stall the level of fertility was low relative to the level of development in all but one of the stalling countries

The facts of life

Dans l'article dont nous publions ici un large extrait, l'auteur présente d'abord les perspectives qui s'offrent à la population des Etats-Unis pour les cinquante prochaines années. Puis il examine les circonstances déterminantes de la conjoncture démographique mondiale, et passe en revue les problèmes de population dans les diverses régions du monde. Après avoir étudié le groupe des populations sur la voie du déclin démographique, M. Notestein aborde l'examen des régions à fort potentiel d'accroissement. C'est cette partie de son article dont on trouvera ci-dessotts une traduction.Notestein Frank W. The facts of life. In: Population, 1ᵉ année, n°4, 1946. pp. 615-622

¿Qué es el crecimiento cero de la población?

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Are we overly dependent on conventional dependency ratios?

The dependency ratio and its components have had a long and productive life. Here we show that they are no longer the most accurate way of measuring important aspects of population aging. We present ratios related to employment, standardized workers and consumers, health care costs, pension costs, and who is old. These ratios are based either on new data or on new approaches to the study of population aging and are all available on the internet. We compare forecasts of those ratios with forecasts of the dependency ratio, both based on the same UN population data. In all cases, we find that the dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio are poor approximations to the more up-to-date ratios. There is little need to use the dependency ratio. More accurate measures are readily available