Future socioeconomic changes

Development of socio-economic scenarios and translating them into suitable storylines and provide an overview of potential data to be used for a quantification of future disease vulnerabilitie

Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future?

This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDLESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for > 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCMused, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions

Vulnerability assessment for the eastern African region to identify hotspots

The output of this task identifies vulnerable sub-regions within the five country study area that can serve as the locus of higher resolution analysis and for testing adaptation strategies

Review of life-cycle assessments of livestock production: Perspectives for application to environmental impact assessment in developing countries

This review draws on Life-Cycle Assessments (LCA) of livestock value chains. The current state of livestock LCAs is summarized, with an emphasis on limitations and lessons for a developing country context. Of the 149 LCAs reviewed, 19 incorporated developing countries. Key messages are: LCAs can be conducted for livestock value chains in developing countries; and, lessons can be learnt to improve the rigor of alternative methodologies including modeling, indicator specification, allocation of impact and incorporating sensitivity analysis. Further, results from existing LCAs provide a point of reference for future LCAs and sustainability assessments in developing countries

Soil organic carbon accumulation under perennial forages in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania

Joint International Grassland & International Rangeland Kenya 2021 Virtual Congres