Policy for plenty: measuring the benefits of policy-oriented social science research

This paper suggests practical methods for assessing policy research programs, both ex post and ex ante. Measuring the benefits of policy research is difficult: the path of causation between research and policy change is nearly always uncertain; multiple factors influence any particular policy change; policies are diverse in nature as are their intended and actual effects; and some effects of policy research are not priced in the market. Many of the benefits of changes in policy stem from the reduced cost of welfare-improving institutional change. Economic surplus analysis can be used to assess such changes. In some cases, Bayesian decision theory may be helpful in evaluating policy research, although it is usually difficult to obtain estimates of the probability distributions a decisionmaker has before the research becomes available. Subjective estimates of parameters and some measure of their degree of uncertainty, are likely to be needed for an economic surplus model. The paper suggests a set of steps for policy research evaluation. It is applied to two cases: an evaluation of pesticide policy research in Brazil, and an evaluation of policies affecting deforestation in Indonesia.Pesticides., Indonesia., Deforestation Brazil., Development projects., Impact assessment,

Using Intelligent Simulation to Enhance Human Performance in Aircraft Maintenance

Human factors research and development investigates the capabilities and limitations of the human within a system. Of the many variables affecting human performance in the aviation maintenance system, training is among the most important. The advent of advanced technology hardware and software has created intelligent training simulations. This paper describes one advanced technology training system under development for the Federal Aviation Administration

Economic Impact Analysis of Marker-Assisted Breeding in Rice

The benefits of developing and releasing salinity-tolerant and phosphorous-deficiency-tolerant rice in Bangladesh, India, Indonesia and the Philippines were estimated for marker-assisted breeding as compared to conventional breeding using economic surplus analysis. Marker-assisted breeding is estimated to save at least 2 to 3 years in the breeding cycle and result in incremental benefits over 25 years in the range of $300 to$800 million depending on the country, stress, and time lags. Salinity and phosphorous deficient soils are difficult problems to solve through conventional breeding because of “genetic load” or undesirable traits that accompany desirable ones during backcrossing. MAB, enabled by advances in genomics and molecular mapping is more precise and hence time-saving. Solving salinity and P-deficiency problems is important, regardless of whether MAB or CB is used, as the cumulative benefits are at least $220 million and as much as$4 billion over the next 25 years depending on the problem and country.Crop Production/Industries,

THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF PEANUT RESEARCH ON POVERTY REDUCTION: RESISTANCE STRATEGIES TO CONTROL PEANUT VIRUSES IN UGANDA

Economic impacts of research that developed Rosette Virus-resistance peanut in Uganda are estimated. Changes in economic surplus are calculated and combined with household data to assess changes in poverty rates and effects on livelihoods of the poor. The poverty rate may decline up to 1.5 percent as a result of the research.Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Vulnerability of LTE to Hostile Interference

LTE is well on its way to becoming the primary cellular standard, due to its performance and low cost. Over the next decade we will become dependent on LTE, which is why we must ensure it is secure and available when we need it. Unfortunately, like any wireless technology, disruption through radio jamming is possible. This paper investigates the extent to which LTE is vulnerable to intentional jamming, by analyzing the components of the LTE downlink and uplink signals. The LTE physical layer consists of several physical channels and signals, most of which are vital to the operation of the link. By taking into account the density of these physical channels and signals with respect to the entire frame, as well as the modulation and coding schemes involved, we come up with a series of vulnerability metrics in the form of jammer to signal ratios. The ``weakest links'' of the LTE signals are then identified, and used to establish the overall vulnerability of LTE to hostile interference.Comment: 4 pages, see below for citation. M. Lichtman, J. Reed, M. Norton, T. Clancy, "Vulnerability of LTE to Hostile Interference'', IEEE Global Conference on Signal and Information Processing (GlobalSIP), Dec 201

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS OF INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT

Public support for integrated pest management (IPM) is derived in part from concerns over food safety and the environment, yet few studies have assessed the economic value of health and environmental benefits of IPM. An approach is suggested for such an assessment and applied to the Virginia peanut IPM program. Effects of IPM on environmental risks posed by pesticides are assessed and society's willingness to pay to reduce those risks is estimated. The annual environmental benefits of the peanut IPM program are estimated at $844,000. The estimates of pesticide risks and willingness to pay can be applied elsewhere in economic assessments of IPM.Integrated pest management, Willingness to pay, Environmental benefits, Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy,

An intelligent tutoring system for space shuttle diagnosis

An Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) transcends conventional computer-based instruction. An ITS is capable of monitoring and understanding student performance thereby providing feedback, explanation, and remediation. This is accomplished by including models of the student, the instructor, and the expert technician or operator in the domain of interest. The space shuttle fuel cell is the technical domain for the project described below. One system, Microcomputer Intelligence for Technical Training (MITT), demonstrates that ITS's can be developed and delivered, with a reasonable amount of effort and in a short period of time, on a microcomputer. The MITT system capitalizes on the diagnostic training approach called Framework for Aiding the Understanding of Logical Troubleshooting (FAULT) (Johnson, 1987). The system's embedded procedural expert was developed with NASA's C-Language Integrated Production (CLIP) expert system shell (Cubert, 1987)

Microcomputer Intelligence for Technical Training (MITT): The evolution of an intelligent tutoring system

Microcomputer Intelligence for Technical Training (MITT) uses Intelligent Tutoring System (OTS) technology to deliver diagnostic training in a variety of complex technical domains. Over the past six years, MITT technology has been used to develop training systems for nuclear power plant diesel generator diagnosis, Space Shuttle fuel cell diagnosis, and message processing diagnosis for the Minuteman missile. Presented here is an overview of the MITT system, describing the evolution of the MITT software and the benefits of using the MITT system

How Well-Targeted Are Payroll Tax Cuts as a Response to COVID-19? Evidence from China

Numerous countries cut payroll taxes in response to economic downturns caused by COVID-19. This includes China, which completely exempted most firms from making social insurance (SI) contributions, resulting in an average tax cut of 21 percentage points on formal labor costs and approximately 20% of total tax remittances made by firms. We use novel data on 900,000 firms in one Chinese province to document new facts about the structure of SI in China and evaluate payroll tax cuts as a COVID-19 relief measure. We calculate that labor informality causes 54% of tax-registered firms---representing 24% of aggregate economic activity---to receive no benefits. Labor formality also increases with firm size, further skewing the benefit of payroll tax cuts towards large firms. But despite the mistargeting that results from these facts, the benefit of the tax cuts relative to firms\u27 operating costs and liquidity is likely larger both for smaller firms and in industries most affected by the COVID-19 shock because these firms and industries are more labor-intensive