Six decades of thermal change in a pristine lake situated north of the Arctic Circle

Abstract The majority of lake temperature studies have investigated climate-induced changes occurring at the lake surface, primarily by analyzing detailed satellite images of surface water temperature. Whilst essential to observe long-term change, satellite images do not provide information on the thermal environment at depth, thus limiting our understanding of lake thermal responses to a warming world. Long-term in situ observational data can fill some of the information gap, with depth-resolved field measurements providing a detailed view of thermal change throughout the water column. However, many previous studies that have investigated multi-decadal changes in lake temperature, both at the surface and at depth, have typically focused on north temperate lakes. Relatively few studies have investigated temperature variations in lakes situated north of the Arctic Circle, which is one of the most rapidly warming regions on Earth. Here, using a 60-year (1961–2020) observational data set of summer water temperature (July–September) from Lake Inari (Finland), we investigate changes in the thermal environment of this pristine lake. Our analysis suggests a statistically significant summer warming trend at the lake surface (+0.25°C decade⁻¹, p-value <0.1), whilst deepwater temperatures remain largely unchanged. This contrasting thermal response of surface and bottom water temperature to climatic warming has likewise resulted in a strengthening of summer stratification in this high latitude lake. Implications of the observed change in both temperature and stratification on the lake ecosystem will likely be extensive, including impacts on aquatic organisms which this lake supports. Our work builds on the ever-growing literature regarding lake thermal responses to climate change

ThSSim:a novel tool for simulation of reservoir thermal stratification

Abstract This study presents a novel tool, ThSSim, for simulation of thermal stratification (ThS) in reservoirs. ThSSim is a simple and flexible reduced-order model-based the basis function (RMBF) that combines CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). In a case study, it was used to simulate water temperature in the Karkheh Reservoir (KR), Iran, for the period 2019–2035. ThSSim consists of two space- and time-dependent components that add predictive ability to the RMBF, a major refinement that extends its practical applications. Water temperature simulations by the W2 model at three-hour time intervals for the KR were used as input data to the POD model to develop ThSSim. To add predictive ability to ThSSim and considering that space-dependent components are not a function of time, we extrapolated the first three time-dependent components by September 30, 2035. We checked the predictive ability of ThSSim against water temperature profiles measured during eight sampling campaigns. We then applied ThSSim to simulate water temperature in the KR for 2019–2035. Simulated water temperature values matched well those measured and obtained by W2. ThSSim results showed an increasing trend for surface water temperature during the simulation period, with a reverse trend observed for water temperature in the bottom layers for three seasons (spring, summer and autumn). The results also indicated decreasing and increasing trends in onset and breakdown of thermal stability, respectively, so that the duration of ThS increased from 278 days in 2019 to 293 days in 2035. ThSSim is thus useful for reservoir temperature simulations. Moreover, the approach used to develop ThSSim is widely applicable to other fields of science and engineering

Strong warming rates in the surface and bottom layers of a boreal lake:results from approximately six decades of measurements (1964–2020)

Abstract High-latitude lakes are warming faster than the global average with deep implications for life on Earth. Using an approximately six-decade long in situ data set, we explored the changes in lake surface-water temperature (LST), lake deep-water temperature (LDT), lake depth-weighted mean water temperature (LDMT), and ice-free days in Lake Kallavesi, a boreal lake in central Finland, when the lake was stratified (June–August). Our results suggest that the LST is warming faster than the local air temperature (AT). As for the LST, fast warming was also observed in the LDT and LDMT, but at rates slower than those in the LST. The number of ice-free days also shows an upward trend, with a rate of about 7 days per decade during the study period. The corresponding local AT is the main driver of the LST, followed by the ice-free days and annual mean AT. Air temperature and ice-free days also mainly contribute to the changes in the LDMT. The LDT is affected more by the North Atlantic Oscillation signals in this freshwater lake. The AT in the prior months does not affect the LDT in Lake Kallavesi although the AT during the prior season, that is, spring, is the main driver of summer LDT. This highlights the local AT impact on the LDT at time scales longer than a month. The warming rates in the lake water are at a minimum in June because the lake is not yet strongly stratified in this month when compared to July and August. These findings improve our knowledge of long-term changes in the lake water temperature in a high-latitude lake, a region with severe environmental consequences due to fast changes in the AT and lake ice phenology

Reliability of functional forms for calculation of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in rivers

Abstract Although dimensional analysis suggests sound functional forms (FFs) to calculate longitudinal dispersion coefficient (Kx), no attempt has been made to quantify both reliability of the estimated Kx value and its sensitivity to variation of the FFs' parameters. This paper introduces a new index named bandwidths similarity factor (bws–factor) to quantify the reliability of FFs based on a rigorous analysis of distinct calibration datasets to tune the FFs. We modified the bootstrap approach to ensure that each resampled calibration dataset is representative of available datapoints in a rich, global database of tracer studies. The dimensionless Kx values were calculated by 200 FFs tuned with the generalized reduced gradient algorithm. Correlation coefficients for the tuned FFs varied from 0.60 to 0.98. The bws–factor ranged from 0.11 to 1.00, indicating poor reliability of FFs for Kx calculation, mainly due to different sources of error in the Kx calculation process. The calculated exponent of the river's aspect ratio varied over a wider range (i.e., −0.76 to 1.50) compared to that computed for the river's friction term (i.e., −0.56 to 0.87). Since Kx is used in combination with one-dimensional numerical models in water quality studies, poor reliability in its estimation can result in unrealistic concentrations being simulated by the models downstream of pollutant release into rivers

Iran’s groundwater hydrochemistry

Abstract Iran’s groundwater hydrochemistry has not been well understood. In this study, Iran’s groundwater hydrochemistry is evaluated using a rich, ground-trusted data sampled from 9,468 wells distributed across the country in 2011. Twelve groundwater quality parameters were analyzed in each sample, resulting in 113,616 parameters over the study period. Examination of anions-cations shows that concentrations of sodium, calcium, chloride, and sulphate are higher than the acceptable threshold for drinking-use suggested by the World Health Organization in about 40%, 21%, 25%, and 20% of the samples, respectively. The results of the water quality index reveal that most of the groundwater resources in the central, southern and eastern regions of Iran, which supply the majority of the domestic water for populated cities, do not meet the requirements for drinking-use. Although the groundwater in northern parts fulfills the requirements for irrigation-use, it is only suitable for irrigation of salinity-friendly crops in central, eastern and southern regions. Ionic types and hydrochemistry facies indicate the dominance of mix water type in 13 out of 30 of Iran’s sub-basins, followed by sodium-chloride water type in nine sub-basins. Local geology and lithology are mainly attributed to the distribution of groundwater facies in Iran. In general, our findings reveal a distinctive relationship between Iran’s geological-geomorphological features and hydrochemical facies/groundwater quality. The findings can be used in the formulation of new strategies and policies for Iran’s groundwater quality management in the future

Alarming carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk of heavy metals in Sabalan dam reservoir, Northwest of Iran

Abstract This research aims to assess contamination status of water and sediment in Sabalan dam reservoir (SDR) and evaluate the impact of water withdrawal depths on the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of metals for exposed people. Results of metal pollution indices revealed some degree of pollution in water and sediment of the reservoir, especially associated with arsenic. Risk assessment of metals in water of the SDR for non-carcinogenic materials through different scenarios of water withdrawal depth revealed that consuming water from the depth of 10 m can be somewhat troublesome to human health. The carcinogenic risk of arsenic from depth of 10 m of the reservoir was about four times greater than that from water surface. Minimum carcinogenic risk of consuming water in the reservoir was found to be 1.69 × 10E-4, which is higher than the maximum limit proposed by the U.S. EPA, indicating the water consumption from the SDR can result in harmful effects on human health

Metal contamination assessment in water column and surface sediments of a warm monomictic man-made lake:Sabalan Dam Reservoir, Iran

Abstract In this study, metal concentrations in the water column and surface sediment of the Sabalan Dam Reservoir (SDR) were determined. Moreover, heavy metal pollution index (HPI), contamination index (CI), heavy metal evaluation index (HEI), enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), consensus-based SQGs (C-BSQGs), and mean probable effect concentration quotients (mPECQs) were evaluated for water and sediments of SDR. It was observed that metal concentrations in river entry sediment were lower, but those in river entry water were higher than corresponding values in the vicinity of the dam structure. The HPI values of water samples taken from 10 m depth in the center of SDR exceeded the critical limit, due to high concentrations of arsenic. However, according to CI, the reservoir water was not contaminated. The HEI values indicated contamination of SDR water with metals at 10 m depth. A comparison of water quality indices revealed that HEI was the most reliable index in water quality assessment, while CI and HPI were not sufficiently accurate. For SQGs, As and Cu concentrations in sediments were high, but mPECQ, Igeo, and EF revealed some degree of sediment pollution in SDR. The calculated EF values suggested minor anthropogenic enrichment of sediment with Fe, Co, V, and Ni; moderate anthropogenic enrichment with As and Mn; and moderate to severe anthropogenic enrichment with Cu. A comparison of SQG values revealed that the threshold effect and probable effect levels were the most reliable metrics in the assessment of sediment toxicity. Statistical analysis indicated similarities between metal concentrations in the center of the reservoir and near to the dam structure, as a result of similar sediment deposition behavior at these points, while higher flow velocity at the river entry point limited deposition of fine particles and associated metals

Recent and future trends in sea surface temperature across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman

Abstract Climate change’s effect on sea surface temperature (SST) at the regional scale vary due to driving forces that include potential changes in ocean circulation and internal climate variability, ice cover, thermal stability, and ocean mixing layer depth. For a better understanding of future effects, it is important to analyze historical changes in SST at regional scales and test prediction techniques. In this study, the variation in SST across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman (PG&GO) during the past four decades was analyzed and predicted to the end of 21st century using a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) model. As input, daily optimum interpolation SST anomaly (DOISSTA) data, available from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States, were used. Descriptive analyses and POD results demonstrated a gradually increasing trend in DOISSTA in the PG&GO over the past four decades. The spatial distribution of DOISSTA indicated: (1) that shallow parts of the Persian Gulf have experienced minimum and maximum values of DOISSTA and (2) high variability in DOISSTA in shallow parts of the Persian Gulf, including some parts of southern and northwestern coasts. Prediction of future SST using the POD model revealed the highest warming during summer in the entire PG&GO by 2100 and the lowest warming during fall and winter in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, respectively. The model indicated that monthly SST in the Persian Gulf may increase by up to 4.3 °C in August by the turn of the century. Similarly, mean annual changes in SST across the PG&GO may increase by about 2.2 °C by 2100

Caspian Sea is eutrophying:the alarming message of satellite data

Abstract The competition over extracting the energy resources of the Caspian Sea together with the major anthropogenic changes in the coastal zones have resulted in increased pollution and environmental degradation of the sea. We provide the first evaluation of the spatiotemporal variation of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) across the Caspian Sea. Using remotely sensed data from 2003 to 2017, we found that the Caspian Sea has suffered from a growing increase in Chl-a, especially in warmer months. The shallow parts of the sea, near Russia and Kazakhstan, especially where the Volga and Terek rivers discharge large nutrient loads (nitrogen- and phosphorus-rich compounds) into the sea, have experienced the highest variations in Chl-a. The Carlson's trophic state index showed that during the study period, on average, about 12%, 26%, and 62% of the Caspian Sea's area was eutrophic, mesotrophic, and oligotrophic, respectively. The identified trends reflect an increasing rate of environmental degradation in the Caspian Sea, which has been the subject of conflict among its littoral states that since the collapse of the Soviet Union have remained unable to agree on a legal regime for governing the sea and its resources