More food or better distribution? Reviewing food policy options in developing countries

Peer Revie

Predicting the distribution of European Hop Hornbeam: application of MaxEnt algorithm and climatic suitability models

peer reviewedOstrya carpinifolia Scop. (European Hop Hornbeam) is a native tree in Europe as a species of the Betulaceae family. European Hop Hornbeam has a significant value for the European flora, and assessing the effects of climate change on habitats of species is essential for its sustainability. With this point of view, the main aim of the research was to predict the present and future potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam across Europe. ‘‘IPSL-CM6A-LR’’ climate change model, ninety-six occurrence data, and seven bioclimatic variables were used to predict potential distribution areas with MaxEnt 3.4.1 program. This study applied a change analysis by comparing the present predicted potential distribution of European Hop Hornbeam with the future predicted potential distribution under the 2041–2060 and 2081–2100 SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5 climate change scenarios. Study results indicated that the sum of suitable and highly suitable areas of European Hop Hornbeam is calculated to be 1,136,706 km2 for the current potential distribution. On the contrary, 2,107,187 km2 of highly suitable and suitable areas will be diminished in the worst case by 2100. The most affected bioclimatic variable is BIO 19 (Precipitation of Coldest Quarter), considering the prediction of the species distribution. These findings indicated that the natural ecosystems of the Mediterranean region will shift to northern areas. This study represented a reference for creating a strategy for the protection and conservation of the species in the future

Climate-related disasters and agricultural land conversion: towards prevention policies

peer reviewedClimate-related disasters (CRDs) and hazards such as droughts, floods, and storms are the main patterns of natural events in long-term weather cycles which are potentially affected by climate change. Unsustainable use of land has contributed to the increase of vulnerability to natural disasters. Disasters and land use change have become major concerns all over the world. Agricultural land conversion (ALC) has been identified as one of the most significant drivers that influences ecosystems, and poses numerous challenges to agricultural development and human life. This systematic review study aimed to review the drivers and effects of ALC and CRDs on the one hand and their relations on the other. The paper further proposes a prevention policy framework towards the management of ALC and CRDs including three dimensions, i.e. monitoring-based policies, driver-based policies, and effect-based policies. All three types of these policies are important and essential because ALC and CRDs and their effects and drivers are interdependent. The study concludes that managing these phenomena not only needs to control and monitor their drivers but also requires preventing the effects. Avoiding the drivers and effects also involves monitoring the past, present, and future of ALC and CRD trends

Social, economic and environmental vulnerability: The case of wheat farmers in Northeast Iran.

peer reviewedThis research used a qualitative and quantitative approach to classify factors influencing wheat farmers' social, economic, and environmental vulnerability in Khorasan Razavi province, Iran, from the perspective of elite wheat farmers and agricultural specialists, and then to establish some recommendations based on the results. To achieve the study objectives, in the qualitative part, in-depth interviews were held with 20 agricultural specialists in the field of wheat cultivation, and 9 elite wheat farmers were selected using a purposive sampling method. Using stratified random sampling, 391 wheat farmers participated in the quantitative part. From the agricultural specialists' viewpoint, the prime factor affecting vulnerability was the social factor "farm management". The second factor was the environmental vulnerability factor "Sunn pest and heat", and the final factor was the economic vulnerability factor "the costs of fertilizer, equipment, and machines and their maintenance". In contrast, from the viewpoint of elite wheat farmers, the dominant factor affecting vulnerability was the economic factor "the costs of equipment, fertilizer, and machines and their maintenance". Regarding social vulnerability, "Governmental support" was stressed and the most important environmental vulnerability factor was "Sunn pest and cold". The results of confirmatory factor analysis were more in line with the views of agricultural specialists. According to the results, it is suggested that the agricultural extension system provides timely training to farmers in order to properly manage farms in times of crisis. The government should also compensate part of the costs of social and economic damage to farmers by providing free or low-interest loans