Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the United Kingdom: a countrywide or local risk?

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to identify factors that may have augmented local risks for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). METHODS: A descriptive study was conducted of local investigations of UK cases of vCJD, who had lived close together at some point since 1980. The main outcome measures were domestic, educational, occupational, healthcare associated, social and recreational links between cases; common dietary, iatrogenic and other possible routes of exposure to vCJD infection; and locally elevated vCJD risk. RESULTS: A cluster of five cases of vCJD in a rural area in North Leicestershire was investigated in 2000 (p=0.004). A further 12 investigations of geographically associated cases of vCJD have been undertaken in the UK. In nine of the 12 locations, some or all of the local cases had consumed beef purchased from the same local retail outlets or provided by a common supplier of school meals, or had some aspect of their medical-dental care in common. In only three of these locations were circumstances identified where the local risk of transmission might have been elevated. In none of the locations was there strong evidence to exclude chance as a likely explanation for the local occurrence of these vCJD cases. CONCLUSION: Although it is possible that in some parts of the UK local factors may have increased the risk of acquiring vCJD, most cases that were geographically close to each other are most likely due to the same factors that gave rise to the large majority of other vCJD cases in the UK

HIV incidence in men who have sex with men in England and Wales 2001-10: a nationwide population study.

BACKGROUND: Control of HIV transmission could be achievable through an expansion of HIV testing of at-risk populations together with ready access and adherence to antiretroviral therapy. To examine whether increases in testing rates and antiretroviral therapy coverage correspond to the control of HIV transmission, we estimated HIV incidence in men who have sex with men (MSM) in England and Wales since 2001. METHODS: A CD4-staged back-calculation model of HIV incidence was used to disentangle the competing contributions of time-varying rates of diagnosis and HIV incidence to observed HIV diagnoses. Estimated trends in time to diagnosis, incidence, and undiagnosed infection in MSM were interpreted against a backdrop of increased HIV testing rates and antiretroviral-therapy coverage over the period 2001-10. FINDINGS: The observed 3·7 fold expansion in HIV testing in MSM was mirrored by a decline in the estimated mean time-to-diagnosis interval from 4·0 years (95% credible interval [CrI] 3·8-4·2) in 2001 to 3·2 years (2·6-3·8) by the end of 2010. However, neither HIV incidence (2300-2500 annual infections) nor the number of undiagnosed HIV infections (7370, 95% CrI 6990-7800, in 2001, and 7690, 5460-10 580, in 2010) changed throughout the decade, despite an increase in antiretroviral uptake from 69% in 2001 to 80% in 2010. INTERPRETATION: CD4 cell counts at HIV diagnosis are fundamental to the production of robust estimates of incidence based on HIV diagnosis data. Improved frequency and targeting of HIV testing, as well as the introduction of ART at higher CD4 counts than is currently recommended, could begin a decline in HIV transmission among MSM in England and Wales. FUNDING: UK Medical Research Council, UK Health Protection Agency

Extending Bayesian back-calculation to estimate age and time specific HIV incidence.

CD4-based multi-state back-calculation methods are key for monitoring the HIV epidemic, providing estimates of HIV incidence and diagnosis rates by disentangling their inter-related contribution to the observed surveillance data. This paper, extends existing approaches to age-specific settings, permitting the joint estimation of age- and time-specific incidence and diagnosis rates and the derivation of other epidemiological quantities of interest. This allows the identification of specific age-groups at higher risk of infection, which is crucial in directing public health interventions. We investigate, through simulation studies, the suitability of various bivariate splines for the non-parametric modelling of the latent age- and time-specific incidence and illustrate our method on routinely collected data from the HIV epidemic among gay and bisexual men in England and Wales

PrEP use and unmet PrEP-need among men who have sex with men in London prior to the implementation of a national PrEP programme, a cross-sectional study from June to August 2019

BACKGROUND: Access to prevention options, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), remains a public health priority for gay, bisexual, and other men who have sex with men (MSM), especially in London. We describe PrEP use in a London community sample of MSM before the introduction of a national PrEP programme in October 2020. METHODS: From June-August 2019, MSM aged ≥ 18 recruited from London commercial venues were asked to self-complete a sexual health questionnaire and provide an oral fluid sample for anonymous HIV antibody testing. Descriptive analyses of demographic characteristics, service engagement and outcomes, as well as sexual risk and prevention behaviours were examined in the survey population and in those reporting current PrEP use. We performed sequential, multivariate analyses examining current PrEP use in MSM of self-perceived HIV-negative/unknown status with identified PrEP-need defined as the report of condomless anal sex (CAS) in the last three months, or the report of CAS (in the last year) with an HIV-positive/unknown status partner not known to be on HIV treatment, in reflection of UK PrEP guidelines. RESULTS: One thousand five hundred and thirty-fifth questionnaires were completed across 34 venues, where 1408 were analysed. One in five MSM of self-perceived HIV-negative/unknown status reported current PrEP use (19.7%, 242/1230). In men with PrEP-need, 68.2% (431/632) did not report current use. Current PrEP use was associated with age (aOR: 3.52, 95% CI: 1.76-7.02 in men aged 40-44 vs men aged 18-25) and education (aOR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.01-2.92 in men with ≥ 2 years/still full-time vs no/ < 2 years of education since age 16). CONCLUSION: Among MSM in London, PrEP use is high but there is indication of unmet PrEP-need in men of younger age and lower levels of post-16 education. National programme monitoring and evaluation will require continued community monitoring to guide interventions ensuring equitable PrEP access and uptake in those who could most benefit from PrEP

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention in men who have sex with men in the UK: a modelling study and health economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: In the UK, HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) has remained high for several years, despite widespread use of antiretroviral therapy and high rates of virological suppression. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has been shown to be highly effective in preventing further infections in MSM, but its cost-effectiveness is uncertain. METHODS: In this modelling study and economic evaluation, we calibrated a dynamic, individual-based stochastic model, the HIV Synthesis Model, to multiple data sources (surveillance data provided by Public Health England and data from a large, nationally representative survey, Natsal-3) on HIV among MSM in the UK. We did a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (sampling 22 key parameters) along with a range of univariate sensitivity analyses to evaluate the introduction of a PrEP programme with sexual event-based use of emtricitabine and tenofovir for MSM who had condomless anal sexual intercourse in the previous 3 months, a negative HIV test at baseline, and a negative HIV test in the preceding year. The main model outcomes were the number of HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and costs. FINDINGS: Introduction of such a PrEP programme, with around 4000 MSM initiated on PrEP by the end of the first year and almost 40 000 by the end of the 15th year, would result in a total cost saving (£1·0 billion discounted), avert 25% of HIV infections (42% of which would be directly because of PrEP), and lead to a gain of 40 000 discounted QALYs over an 80-year time horizon. This result was particularly sensitive to the time horizon chosen, the cost of antiretroviral drugs (for treatment and PrEP), and the underlying trend in condomless sex. INTERPRETATION: This analysis suggests that the introduction of a PrEP programme for MSM in the UK is cost-effective and possibly cost-saving in the long term. A reduction in the cost of antiretroviral drugs (including the drugs used for PrEP) would substantially shorten the time for cost savings to be realised. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of detecting cases of chronic hepatitis C infection on reception into prison

Background In England and Wales where less than 1% of the population are Injecting drug users (IDUs), 97% of HCV reports are attributed to injecting drug use. As over 60% of the IDU population will have been imprisoned by the age of 30 years, prison may provide a good location in which to offer HCV screening and treatment. The aim of this work is to examine the cost effectiveness of a number of alternative HCV case-finding strategies on prison reception Methods A decision analysis model embedded in a model of the flow of IDUs through prison was used to estimate the cost effectiveness of a number of alternative case-finding strategies. The model estimates the average cost of identifying a new case of HCV from the perspective of the health care provider and how these estimates may evolve over time. Results The results suggest that administering verbal screening for a past positive HCV test and for ever having engaged in illicit drug use prior to the administering of ELISA and PCR tests can have a significant impact on the cost effectiveness of HCV case-finding strategies on prison reception; the discounted cost in 2017 being £2,102 per new HCV case detected compared to £3,107 when no verbal screening is employed. Conclusion The work here demonstrates the importance of targeting those individuals that have ever engaged in illicit drug use for HCV testing in prisons, these individuals can then be targeted for future intervention measures such as treatment or monitored to prevent future transmission

Prevalence of disease related prion protein in anonymous tonsil specimens in Britain: cross sectional opportunistic survey

Objective To establish with improved accuracy the prevalence of disease related prion protein (PrPCJD) in the population of Britain and thereby guide a proportionate public health response to limit the threat of healthcare associated transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD)

Monitoring the emergence of community transmission of influenza A/H1N1 2009 in England: a cross sectional opportunistic survey of self sampled telephone callers to NHS Direct

Objective To evaluate ascertainment of the onset of community transmission of influenza A/H1N1 2009 (swine flu) in England during the earliest phase of the epidemic through comparing data from two surveillance systems