What goes up ... continues to go up : momentum in commercial real estate forecasting price appreciation via cap rates

Thesis: S.M. in Real Estate Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Program in Real Estate Development in conjunction with the Center for Real Estate, 2018.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references (page 31).In equity markets, dividend yields are highly correlated with future returns, largely through capital appreciation. Taking the same logic and applying it to the commercial real estate market -- could cap rates therefore predict future appreciation return? This paper finds that absolute cap rates are not significantly correlated with future appreciation or depreciation. However, regressions of first-differenced cap rates on future price appreciation find strong statistical significance at one, two, and three-quarter forecasts. The relation is strongest at a two quarter forecast, declining at four-quarter forecasts and thereafter. These findings support a case for momentum in commercial real estate pricing. Pricing movements, via cap rate changes, predict future appreciation or depreciation. The statistical results show that changes in cap rates are inversely correlated with future price appreciation or depreciation. When cap rates shift downward. properties tend to appreciate in future quarters, on average. And when cap rates shift upward, properties tend to depreciate in future quarters, on average. The analysis is bifurcated by asset type and market size. When analyzing this relation on an asset-class level, the predictive power of cap rate changes on future appreciation and depreciation is strongest in retail. Additionally, this relation is stronger in Primary CSAs than in Secondary CSAs. Astute investors should keep a close watch on the capital markets as they implement portfolio management strategies. While not to be utilized in isolation, these findings on momentum should be taken in context of a greater acquisition and disposition strategy.by Frank Kettler.S.M. in Real Estate Developmen

Digital Supply Chain Twins in Practice: Outlining the Technological and Organizational Requirements for Successful Implementation

Digital supply chain twins (DSCT) are often considered as one of the most promising technologies to efficiently and proactively manage increasingly complex international logistics networks in the future. Despite the recognition of the potential, the concrete development of digital twins of logistics networks is still in earlier stages in practice. Most twins focus on mapping digital twins of logistics assets or sites rather than elevating the technology to a network level. Building on the Nominal Group Technique among 18 logistics managers this study seeks to investigate the requirements of successful DSCT implementation at a network level. The study shows that while there are various technological requirements that need to be created for the development, it is also DSCT-specific intra- and inter-organizational requirements that influence the successful implementation and use of DSCTs

Untersuchungen zur Biodiversität, biogeographischen Verbreitung und Phylogenie von Choanoflagellaten - unter besonderer Berücksichtigung der polaren Regionen

Seit über 200 Jahren ist die Morphologie das ausschlaggebende Kriterium für die Bestimmung von Protisten. Aber besonders innerhalb der Gruppe der HNF stößt eine rein morphologisch basierte Taxonomie mangels erkennbarer Merkmale an ihre Grenzen. Der hohe Anteil an morphologisch nicht identifizierbaren oder kryptischen Arten, legt die Vermutung nahe, dass hinter der Fassade dieser `Morpho-Arten´ eine gewaltige Menge an kryptischen Arten verborgen ist (Cairns 1993). Aktuelle molekular biologische Untersuchungen haben gezeigt, dass sowohl durch allopatrische als auch sympatrische Artbildung eine hohe Anzahl an kryptischen Arten entstanden ist. In der Diskussion um die biogeographische Verbreitung von Protisten stellt das Artkonzept einen wichtigen Aspekt dar. Anhand der Untersuchung der biogeographischen Verbreitung acanthoecider Choanoflagellaten konnte demonstriert werden, dass die Hypothese �everything is everywhere � the environment selects� (Finlay 2004) nur zum Teil auf die untersuchte Gruppe zutrifft. Von 103 Morpho-Arten zeigte ein Drittel eine begrenzte biogeographische Verbreitung wobei besonders die polaren Regionen hervorstachen. Trotz der vergleichbaren ökologischen Bedingungen zeigten die nördliche und die südliche polare Provinzen jeweils eine sehr charakteristische Artzusammensetztung. Die morphologischen und molekular biologischen Untersuchungen an zwei bipolaren Kaltwasserarten, Acanthocorbis nana und A. unguiculata, zeigten deutlich, dass selbst innerhalb einer Gruppe mit wohl definierten morphologischen Charakteristika, eine Anzahl an kryptischen Arten verborgen ist. Die Untersuchung der SSU rRNA von 74 Klonen enthüllte drei Genotypen innerhalb der Morphoart A. nana und weitere zwei Genotypen in A. unguiculata. Dabei zeigte sich bei A. nana nicht nur ein Hinweis auf eine allopatrische Artbildung zwischen den Polen sondern auch eine Sympatrie innerhalb der nördlichen Hemisphäre. Innerhalb der Morphoart A. unguiculata zeigten sich ebenfalls unterschiedliche Genotypen, räumlich und zeitlich im Miozän durch die Tropen getrennt. Untersuchungen der SSU rRNA einer kosmopolitischen Art aus beiden polaren Regionen, Diaphanoeca grandis, zeigten geringe bis keine Unterschiede im Genotypus und weisen auf einen kontinuierlichen Genfluß zwischen den Populationen hin. Die Funde von drei neuen Choanoflagellatenarten zeigen, dass die Artenzahl der Protisten möglicherweise unterschätz wird. Diplotheca elongata, eine große und morphologisch signifikante Art aus der Flussmündung des Danshui in Nordtaiwan erfüllt die Bedingungen für die Bezeichnung Flaggschiff-Art im Sinne von Foissner (1999). Diese neue Art wurde bis jetzt nur in dieser speziellen Region gefunden, nicht aber in anderen Flussmündungen in Taiwan. Das legt den Schluss nahe, dass diese Art möglicherweise endemisch ist. Mit der Beschreibung zweier weiterer neuer Arten wurden zum ersten Mal Choanoflagellaten aus der Tiefsee unterhalb von 2.500m nachgewiesen. Lagenoeca antarctica aus dem Abyssal des Weddell Meers und Salpingoeca abyssalis aus dem abyssalen Cap Becken. Die Tatsache, dass die Tiefsee den größten Teil der Erdoberfläche bedeckt, lässt darauf schließen, dass eine hohe Anzahl an HNF und damit auch Choanoflagellaten in der Tiefe verborgen sind. Zur Untersuchung der Phylogenie innerhalb der Choanoflagellaten und ihrer phylogenetischen Position in der Gruppe der Opisthokonta wurden Sequenzen der SSU und LSU rRNA aller untersuchten Arten herangezogen. Die bootstrap Analyse zeigte, dass die codonosigiden und salpingoeciden Choanoflagellaten polyphyletisch sind. Innerhalb des Clusters der acanthoeciden Choanoflagellaten gibt es eine Trennung in zwei Gruppen, die morphologisch durch die Lorica-Bildung während der Zellteilung widergespiegelt wird. Die phylogenetische Untersuchung der Position der Choanozoa innerhalb der Opisthokonta deutet darauf hin, dass die Choanozoa zusammen mit den Pilzen einer Schwestergruppe zu den Metazoa bilden. Weiters unterstützt sie die Hypothese, dass sie Metazoa monophyletisch sind. Diese Untersuchung zeigt, dass selbst in einer morphologisch gut definierten Gruppe wie den acanthoeciden Choanoflagellaten eine vermutlich hohe Anzahl an kryptischen, zum Teil biogeographisch getrennter Arten, verborgen ist und damit auch die Hypothese der weltweiten Verbreitung von Protisten allgemein in Frage zu stellen ist. Dies bestätigt, dass die Diversität der Protisten durch ein rein morphologisches Artkonzept stark unterschätzt wird. Die hohen intraspezifischen genetischen Unterschiede sollten nicht nur als ein Ergebnis neutraler Mutation, wie von Fenchel und Finlay (2004) interpretiert werden. Vielmehr zeigt sich, dass eine rein morphologisch basierte Systematik angesichts der Ergebnisse aus molekular biologischen und ökologischen Studien keinen Bestand haben kann

Low-Dose Radiotherapy of Painful Heel Spur/Plantar Fasciitis as an Example of Treatment Effects in Benign Diseases

Degenerative changes in the plantar fascia may cause the so‐called “painful heel” with typical projections of tenderness. This condition is often associated with a plantar heel spur. Radiotherapy with low doses (LD‐EBRT) has been well known for its anti‐inflammatory potential. In the recent years, several microbiological mechanisms were elucidated to explain immunomodulation by LD‐EBRT. Furthermore, a randomized study proved the clinical efficacy of this therapy in plantar fasciitis. Two other trials defined a fractionation schedule of 6 × 0.5 Gy twice weekly as the new standard therapy. Taken together, LD‐EBRT is an effective and safe therapeutic option for patients over 30 years of age and after exclusion of pregnancy. In case of an insufficient response, a second course can be offered to the patient. There are still open questions concerning target volume definition and fractionation of LD‐EBRT. Furthermore, studies randomizing LD‐EBRT with other conservative therapeutic approaches are missing

Experimental Investigation of a 7 by 7 Nozzle Jet Array for Dynamic Impingement Cooling

Dynamic impingement cooling is a promising way for more efficient exploitation of cooling air in highly heat charged environments. In many applications the deployed impinging jets are subjected to crossflow superimposed on the flow field of the transverse jets. The present study describes the initial experimental investigations regarding dynamic heat transfer between a flat surface and an array of 49 impingement jets, which are dynamically controlled by changing frequency, duty cycle and phasing. A new test rig was designed and manufactured in order to investigate the interactions of impingement jets and their impact on heat transfer. The test rig satisfies the needs of different measurement techniques. Surface measurements using pressure sensors, thermocouples, hot wires, hot films and liquid crystal thermography are planned for investigating the interactions near the wall. Furthermore, the test rig is suitable for efficient flow field measurements between jet orifices and impingement plate using particle image velocimetry. Parallel to the test rig development, time resolved PIV measurements have been performed in the test section of a recirculating free-surface water tunnel in order to investigate the influence of cross flow superimposed to periodically generated vortex rings impinging on a flat plate. The central goal of these preliminary testing is to understand under which formation conditions periodically generated vortex rings in cross flow have the ability to maximize the transport of vorticity close to the wall. First results are presented and discussed.DFG, 200291049, SFB 1029: TurbIn - Signifikante Wirkungsgradsteigerung durch gezielte, interagierende Verbrennungs- und Strömungsinstationaritäten in Gasturbine

Seabed corrugations beneath an Antarctic ice shelf revealed by autonomous underwater vehicle survey: Origin and implications for the history of Pine Island Glacier

Ice shelves are critical features in the debate about West Antarctic ice sheet change and sea level rise, both because they limit ice discharge and because they are sensitive to change in the surrounding ocean. The Pine Island Glacier ice shelf has been thinning rapidly since at least the early 1990s, which has caused its trunk to accelerate and retreat. Although the ice shelf front has remained stable for the past six decades, past periods of ice shelf collapse have been inferred from relict seabed "corrugations" (corrugated ridges), preserved 340 km from the glacier in Pine Island Trough. Here we present high-resolution bathymetry gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle operating beneath an Antarctic ice shelf, which provides evidence of long-term change in Pine Island Glacier. Corrugations and ploughmarks on a sub-ice shelf ridge that was a former grounding line closely resemble those observed offshore, interpreted previously as the result of iceberg grounding. The same interpretation here would indicate a significantly reduced ice shelf extent within the last 11 kyr, implying Holocene glacier retreat beyond present limits, or a past tidewater glacier regime different from today. The alternative, that corrugations were not formed in open water, would question ice shelf collapse events interpreted from the geological record, revealing detail of another bed-shaping process occurring at glacier margins. We assess hypotheses for corrugation formation and suggest periodic grounding of ice shelf keels during glacier unpinning as a viable origin. This interpretation requires neither loss of the ice shelf nor glacier retreat and is consistent with a "stable" grounding-line configuration throughout the Holocene

Lateral flow–based nucleic acid detection of SARS-CoV-2 using enzymatic incorporation of biotin-labeled dUTP for POCT use

The degree of detrimental effects inflicted on mankind by the COVID-19 pandemic increased the need to develop ASSURED (Affordable, Sensitive, Specific, User-friendly, Rapid and Robust, Equipment-free, and Deliverable) POCT (point of care testing) to overcome the current and any future pandemics. Much effort in research and development is currently advancing the progress to overcome the diagnostic pressure built up by emerging new pathogens. LAMP (loop-mediated isothermal amplification) is a well-researched isothermal technique for specific nucleic acid amplification which can be combined with a highly sensitive immunochromatographic readout via lateral flow assays (LFA). Here we discuss LAMP-LFA robustness, sensitivity, and specificity for SARS-CoV-2 N-gene detection in cDNA and clinical swab-extracted RNA samples. The LFA readout is designed to produce highly specific results by incorporation of biotin and FITC labels to 11-dUTP and LF (loop forming forward) primer, respectively. The LAMP-LFA assay was established using cDNA for N-gene with an accuracy of 95.65%. To validate the study, 82 SARS-CoV-2-positive RNA samples were tested. Reverse transcriptase (RT)-LAMP-LFA was positive for the RNA samples with an accuracy of 81.66%; SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA was detected by RT-LAMP-LFA for as low as CT-33. Our method reduced the detection time to 15 min and indicates therefore that RT-LAMP in combination with LFA represents a promising nucleic acid biosensing POCT platform that combines with smartphone based semi-quantitative data analysis.Peer Reviewe