Estimating seabed pressure from demersal trawls, seines, and dredges based on gear design and dimensions

This study assesses the seabed pressure of towed fishing gears and models the physical impact (area and depth of seabed penetration) from trip-based information of vessel size, gear type, and catch. Traditionally fishing pressures are calculated top-down by making use of large-scale statistics such as logbook data. Here, we take a different approach starting from the gear itself (design and dimensions) to estimate the physical interactions with the seabed at the level of the individual fishing operation. We defined 14 distinct towed gear groups in European waters (eight otter trawl groups, three beam trawl groups, two demersal seine groups, and one dredge group), for which we established gear “footprints”. The footprint of a gear is defined as the relative contribution from individual larger gear components, such as trawl doors, sweeps, and groundgear, to the total area and severity of the gear's impact. An industry-based survey covering 13 countries provided the basis for estimating the relative impact-area contributions from individual gear components, whereas sediment penetration was estimated based on a literature review. For each gear group, a vessel size–gear size relationship was estimated to enable the prediction of gear footprint area and sediment penetration from vessel size. Application of these relationships with average vessel sizes and towing speeds provided hourly swept-area estimates by métier. Scottish seining has the largest overall gear footprint of ∼1.6 km2 h−1 of which 0.08 km2 has an impact at the subsurface level (sediment penetration ≥ 2 cm). Beam trawling for flatfish ranks low when comparing overall footprint size/hour but ranks substantially higher when comparing only impact at the subsurface level (0.19 km2h−1). These results have substantial implications for the definition, estimation, and monitoring of fishing pressure indicators, which are discussed in the context of an ecosystem approach to fisheries managemen

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are challenging. However, for the larger Western European region it was found that, under current climate conditions, on average one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, within the entire region, events of similar magnitude are expected to occur more frequently than once in 400 years. Anthropogenic climate change has already increased the intensity of the maximum 1-day rainfall event in the summer season by 3–19 %. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 ∘ C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2–9. Models indicate that intensity and frequency of such events will further increase with future global warming. While attribution of small-scale events remains challenging, this study shows that there is a robust increase in the likelihood and severity of rainfall events such as the ones causing extreme impacts in July 2021 when considering a larger region

Attribution of the heavy rainfall events leading to severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021

In July 2021 extreme rainfall across Western Europe caused severe flooding and substantial impacts, including over 200 fatalities and extensive infrastructure damage within Germany and the Benelux countries. After the event, a hydrological assessment and a probabilistic event attribution analysis of rainfall data were initiated and complemented by discussing the vulnerability and exposure context. The global mean surface temperature (GMST) served as a covariate in a generalised extreme value distribution fitted to observational and model data, exploiting the dependence on GMST to estimate how anthropogenic climate change affects the likelihood and severity of extreme events. Rainfall accumulations in Ahr/Erft and the Belgian Meuse catchment vastly exceeded previous observed records. In regions of that limited size the robust estimation of return values and the detection and attribution of rainfall trends are challenging. However, for the larger Western European region it was found that, under current climate conditions, on average one rainfall event of this magnitude can be expected every 400 years at any given location. Consequently, within the entire region, events of similar magnitude are expected to occur more frequently than once in 400 years. Anthropogenic climate change has already increased the intensity of the maximum 1-day rainfall event in the summer season by 3–19 %. The likelihood of such an event to occur today compared to a 1.2 $$^{\circ }$$C cooler climate has increased by a factor of 1.2–9. Models indicate that intensity and frequency of such events will further increase with future global warming. While attribution of small-scale events remains challenging, this study shows that there is a robust increase in the likelihood and severity of rainfall events such as the ones causing extreme impacts in July 2021 when considering a larger region