805 research outputs found

    Internal-external cross-validation helped to evaluate the generalizability of prediction models in large clustered datasets

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    OBJECTIVE: To illustrate how to evaluate the need of complex strategies for developing generalizable prediction models in large clustered datasets. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed eight Cox regression models to estimate the risk of heart failure using a large population-level dataset. These models differed in the number of predictors, the functional form of the predictor effects (non-linear effects and interaction) and the estimation method (maximum likelihood and penalization). Internal-external cross-validation was used to evaluate the models' generalizability across the included general practices. RESULTS: Among 871,687 individuals from 225 general practices, 43,987 (5.5%) developed heart failure during a median follow-up time of 5.8 years. For discrimination, the simplest prediction model yielded a good concordance statistic, which was not much improved by adopting complex strategies. Between-practice heterogeneity in discrimination was similar in all models. For calibration, the simplest model performed satisfactorily. Although accounting for non-linear effects and interaction slightly improved the calibration slope, it also led to more heterogeneity in the observed/expected ratio. Similar results were found in a second case study involving patients with stroke. CONCLUSION: In large clustered datasets, prediction model studies may adopt internal-external cross-validation to evaluate the generalizability of competing models, and to identify promising modelling strategies

    Exploring the predictive power of impulsivity measures in predicting self-reported and informant-reported inpatient disruptive behaviors

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    Contains fulltext : 231148.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access)Impulsivity is strongly associated with aggression and antisocial conduct. Although self-report measures are a time-efficient means to assess impulsivity, they may be susceptible to socially desirable responding, particularly in forensic psychiatry. The current study aimed to investigate the predictive validity of three measures of impulsivity in predicting self- and informant-reported antisocial behavior: the Barratt Impulsiveness Scale, the Self-Centered Impulsivity scale of the Psychopathic Personality Inventory-Revised and the general Disinhibition factor of the Externalizing Spectrum Inventory. Next, the mediating role of a measure of self-deception, the Virtuous Responding scale, was examined in these associations. Participants (N = 94) were inpatients from addiction care and forensic psychiatry. Two regression analyses were conducted using self-reported antisocial behavior in the first, and informant-reported antisocial behavior in the second analysis as outcome variables. In addition, a mediated regression analysis was conducted, using the Virtuous Responding scale as a mediator. The impulsivity measures showed a substantially lower predictive validity when informant-reported behavior was predicted. The Virtuous Responding scale appeared to be unreliable in the current sample and showed no mediation effect. The results showed insufficient support for the predictive validity of the three measures of impulsivity. Alternative time-efficient assessments for impulsivity are needed, such as informant-based measures.18 p

    Repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on child and adolescent mental health: A matter of concern—A joint statement from EAP and ECPCP

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    COVID-19 pandemic and the consequent rigid social distancing measures implemented, including school closures, have heavily impacted children's and adolescents' psychosocial wellbeing, and their mental health problems significantly increased. However, child and adolescent mental health were already a serious problem before the Pandemic all over the world. COVID-19 is not just a pandemic, it is a syndemic and mentally or socially disadvantaged children and adolescents are the most affected. Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs) and previous mental health issues are an additional worsening condition. Even though many countries have responded with decisive efforts to scale-up mental health services, a more integrated and community-based approach to mental health is required. EAP and ECPCP makes recommendations to all the stakeholders to take action to promote, protect and care for the mental health of a generation

    Psychometric Properties of the Externalizing Spectrum Inventory:Replication and Extension across Clinical and Non-Clinical Samples

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    The Externalizing Spectrum Inventory aims at assessing personality features that underlie externalizing disorders such as substance abuse and antisocial behaviors. The objective was to replicate the psychometric properties of the 160-item Externalizing Spectrum Inventory in Dutch clinical and non-clinical samples. First, Cronbach's alpha, test-retest reliability and the factor structure were analyzed on a mixed sample of inpatients (n = 149), undergraduates (n = 227), and community participants (n = 178). The factor structure was evaluated through confirmatory and exploratory factor analyses; for the latter Parallel Analysis was used, based on Minimum Rank Factor Analysis. Next, the criterion validity was analyzed using the Aggression Questionnaire and the NEO-Five Factor Inventory as external measures. The Dutch Externalizing Spectrum Inventory subscales showed sufficient reliability (α=.68-.94; ICC=.68-.91), except in the undergraduate sample (α=.49-.96; ICC=.43-.97). The factor structure of the Externalizing Spectrum Inventory was not confirmed and the exploratory analysis yielded different factor solutions across samples. The criterion validity was supported with regard to trait aggression and partly supported with regard to the Five Factor Model. The results suggest that the ESI-160 and its original factor model can be used for prediction purposes. However, further research of the factor structure is strongly recommended

    Therapy-Induced Changes in CXCR4 Expression in Tumor Xenografts Can Be Monitored Noninvasively with N-[C-11]Methyl-AMD3465 PET

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    Purpose Chemokine CXCL12 and its receptor CXCR4 are constitutively overexpressed in human cancers. The CXCL12-CXCR4 signaling axis plays an important role in tumor progression and metastasis, but also in treatment-induced recruitment of CXCR4-expressing cytotoxic immune cells. Here, we aimed to demonstrate the feasibility of N-[C-11]methyl-AMD3465 positron emission tomography (PET) to monitor changes in CXCR4 density in tumors after single-fraction local radiotherapy or in combination with immunization. Procedure TC-1 cells expressing human papillomavirus antigens E6 and E7 were inoculated into the C57BL/6 mice subcutaneously. Two weeks after tumor cell inoculation, mice were irradiated with a single-fraction 14-Gy dose of X-ray. One group of irradiated mice was immunized with an alpha-viral vector vaccine, SFVeE6,7, and another group received daily injections of the CXCR4 antagonist AMD3100 (3 mg/kg -intraperitoneal (i.p.)). Seven days after irradiation, all animals underwent N-[C-11]methyl-AMD3465 PET. Results PET imaging showed N-[C-11]methyl-AMD3465 uptake in the tumor of single-fraction irradiated mice was nearly 2.5-fold higher than in sham-irradiated tumors (1.07 +/- 0.31 %ID/g vs. 0.42 +/- 0.05 % ID/g, p <0.01). The tumor uptake was further increased by 4-fold (1.73 +/- 0.17 % ID/g vs 0.42 +/- 0.05 % ID/g, p <0.01) in mice treated with single-fraction radiotherapy in combination with SFVeE6,7 immunization. Administration of AMD3100 caused a 4.5-fold reduction in the tracer uptake in the tumor of irradiated animals (0.24 +/- 0.1 % ID/g, p <0.001), suggesting that tracer uptake is indeed due to CXCR4-mediated chemotaxis. Conclusion This study demonstrates the feasibility of N-[C-11]methyl-AMD3465 PET imaging to monitor treatment-induced changes in the density of CXCR4 receptors in tumors and justifies further evaluation of CXCR4 as a potential imaging biomarker for evaluation of anti-tumor therapies

    Aboriginal Practitioners Speak Out: Contextualising Child Protection Interventions

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    One month before the June 2007 Federal Government Emergency Intervention in the Northern Territory some 55 West Australian Aboriginal child protection workers attended a 3-day summit in Fremantle. Their purpose as front-line practitioners from across the State was to identify how more nurturing and healing communities could be developed and supported in a climate of despair. This paper reports on how the summit was designed and on some of the ideas and concerns that emerged within this dialogical space of cooperative inquiry. The project was a partnership between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal representatives of university, government, and community-service bodies. Aboriginal practitioners identified the complexity of what was happening in their experience and where changes were needed. Integral to this participation and coproduction of knowledge by Aboriginal child protection workers was the provision of a safe space for the articulation of reflected experience. Implications for policy, practice, and curriculum of both process and outcome dimensions to considering Aboriginal views on this contentious issue are discussed

    EAU-ESPU pediatric urology guidelines on testicular tumors in prepubertal boys

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    Background: Testicular tumors in prepubertal boys account for 1–2% of all solid pediatric tumors. They have a lower incidence, a different histologic distribution and are more often benign compared to testicular tumors in the adolescent and adult group. This fundamental difference should also lead to a different approach and treatment. Objective: To provide a guideline for diagnosis and treatment options in prepubertal boys with a testicular mass. Method: A structured literature search and review for testicular tumors in prepubertal boys was performed. All English abstracts up to the end of 2019 were screened, and relevant papers were obtained to create the guideline. Results: A painless scrotal mass is the most common clinical presentation. For evaluation, high resolution ultrasound has a detection rate of almost 100%, alpha-fetoprotein is a tumor marker, however, is age dependent. Human chorionic gonadotropin (HCG) was not a tumor marker for testis tumors in prepubertal boys. Conclusion: Based on a summary of the literature on prepubertal testis tumors, the 2021 EAU guidelines on Pediatric Urology recommend a partial orchiectomy as the primary approach in tumors with a favorable preoperative ultrasound diagnosis

    Frozen section diagnosis of borderline ovarian tumors with suspicious features of invasive cancer is a devil's dilemma for the surgeon:A systematic review and meta-analysis

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    Introduction Frozen section diagnoses of borderline ovarian tumors are not always straightforward and a borderline frozen section diagnosis with suspicious features of invasive carcinoma (reported as "at least borderline" or synonymous descriptions) presents us with the dilemma of whether or not to perform a full surgical staging procedure. By performing a systematic review and meta-analysis, the prevalence of straightforward borderline and "at least borderline" frozen section diagnoses, as well as proportion of patients with a final diagnosis of invasive carcinoma in these cases, were assessed and compared, as quantification of this dilemma may help us with the issue of this clinical decision. Material and methods PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane library databases were searched and studies discussing "at least borderline" frozen section diagnoses were included in the review. Numbers of specific frozen section diagnoses and subsequent final histological diagnoses were extracted and pooled analysis was performed to compare the proportion of patients diagnosed with invasive carcinoma following borderline and "at least borderline" frozen section diagnoses, presented as risk ratio and risk difference with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results Of 4940 screened records, eight studies were considered eligible for quantitative analysis. A total of 921 women was identified and 230 (25.0%) of these women were diagnosed with "at least borderline" ovarian tumor at the time of frozen section. Final histological diagnoses were reported in five studies, including 61 women with an "at least borderline" diagnosis and 290 women with a straightforward borderline frozen section diagnosis. Twenty-five of 61 women (41.0%) of the "at least borderline" group had invasive cancer at final diagnosis, compared with 28 of 290 women (9.7%) of the straightforward borderline frozen section group (risk difference -0.34, 95% CI -0.53 to -0.15; relative risk 0.25, 95% CI 0.13-0.50). Conclusions Women diagnosed with "at least borderline" frozen section diagnoses were found to have a higher chance of carcinoma upon final diagnosis when compared with women with a straightforward borderline frozen section diagnosis (41.0% vs 9.7%). Especially in the serous subtype, and after preoperative consent, full staging during initial surgery might be considered in these cases to prevent a second surgical procedure
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