Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California’s water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades

Airway Microbiota and Pathogen Abundance in Age-Stratified Cystic Fibrosis Patients

Bacterial communities in the airways of cystic fibrosis (CF) patients are, as in other ecological niches, influenced by autogenic and allogenic factors. However, our understanding of microbial colonization in younger versus older CF airways and the association with pulmonary function is rudimentary at best. Using a phylogenetic microarray, we examine the airway microbiota in age stratified CF patients ranging from neonates (9 months) to adults (72 years). From a cohort of clinically stable patients, we demonstrate that older CF patients who exhibit poorer pulmonary function possess more uneven, phylogenetically-clustered airway communities, compared to younger patients. Using longitudinal samples collected form a subset of these patients a pattern of initial bacterial community diversification was observed in younger patients compared with a progressive loss of diversity over time in older patients. We describe in detail the distinct bacterial community profiles associated with young and old CF patients with a particular focus on the differences between respective “early” and “late” colonizing organisms. Finally we assess the influence of Cystic Fibrosis Transmembrane Regulator (CFTR) mutation on bacterial abundance and identify genotype-specific communities involving members of the Pseudomonadaceae, Xanthomonadaceae, Moraxellaceae and Enterobacteriaceae amongst others. Data presented here provides insights into the CF airway microbiota, including initial diversification events in younger patients and establishment of specialized communities of pathogens associated with poor pulmonary function in older patient populations