The complexity of the climate-economy nexus: agent-based modelling and policy evaluation

While the consensus on the urgency of climate actions has grown in the last decades, what is the pathway to be followed to translate proposal into actions is still argument of debates in the climate change economics literature. Most economists believe that carbon pricing is the main and the most efficient option to reduce GHGs emissions, however a growing number of works point out that this result is highly dependent on the type of model used, claiming the superiority of a policy mix when a more realistic representation of the economy is used. My research work deals with the study of different climate policies with a complex system science approach, in particular, using the Eurace macroeconomic agent-based model. This work has two main objectives: first, to test the common belief that the carbon tax policy is the main and powerful instrument we have to induce the desired climate transition; second, to study the policy mix problem within the Eurace model economy, in particular, a mix of a carbon tax and a feed-in tariff policy. I enriched the Eurace model with a new agent, the climate module, to account for the climate-economy feedback. The economy affects the climate through greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels use for the energy production while the climate affects the economy damaging physical capital, with damages dependent on the temperature anomaly. Moreover, I introduced heterogeneity in the capital good sector, in order to include energy intensity improvements as a factor of technological change. In order to establish a relation between real world and model quantities, I followed an initialization procedure based on imposing physical constraints on model's quantities. I have developed an extended multi-criteria analysis method to evaluate policies performance accounting for both multiple objectives and variability of the outcomes of computational experiments. To pursue the research objectives I performed a set of computational experiments with the Eurace model, in which I analyzed a carbon tax policy, a feed-in tariff policy, and a mix of the two policies. Results of computational experiments show that the carbon tax is not the best performing climate policy when analyzed with the Eurace model, both the feed-in tariff and the policy mix perform better. This result is independent from the presence of climate damages. In absence of climate damages the PM performs better than its components, however, climate damages reduce the positive effects of the interaction between the components leading to higher economic costs for the same emission reduction obtained. According to the extended multi-criteria analysis, in presence of climate damages, the feed-in tariff policy is almost always preferred to the policy mix

Sustainability transition and digital trasformation: an agent-based perspective

Digital transformation and sustainability transition are complex phenomena characterized by fun-damental uncertainty. The potential consequences deriving from these processes are the subject of open de-bates among economists and technologists. In this respect, adopting a modelling and simulation approachrepresents one of the best solution in order to forecast potential effects linked to these complex phenom-ena. Agent-based modelling represents an appropriate paradigm to address complexity. This research aimsat showing the potential of the large-scale macroeconomic agent-based model Eurace in order to investigatechallenges like sustainability transition and digital transformation. This paper discusses and compares resultsof previous works where the Eurace model was used to study the digital transformation, while it presents newresults concerning the framework on the sustainability transition, where a climate agent is introduced to ac-count the climate economy interaction. As regards the digital transformation, the Eurace model is able to cap-ture interesting business dynamics characterizing the so-called increasing returns world and, in case of highrates of digital technological progress, it shows a significant technological unemployment. As regard the sus-tainability transition, it displays a rebound effect on energy savings that compromises efforts to reduce greenhouse gases emissions via electricity efficiency improvements. Furthermore, it shows that a carbon tax couldbe not sufficient to decouple economy from carbon consumption, and that a feed-in tariff policy fosteringrenewable energy production growth may be more effective

Prepuberal stimulation of 5-HT7-R by LP-211 in a rat model of hyper-activity and attention-deficit: permanent effects on attention, brain amino acids and synaptic markers in the fronto-striatal interface

The cross-talk at the prefronto-striatal interface involves excitatory amino acids, different receptors, transducers and modulators. We investigated long-term effects of a prepuberal, subchronic 5-HT7-R agonist (LP-211) on adult behaviour, amino acids and synaptic markers in a model for Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). Naples High Excitability rats (NHE) and their Random Bred controls (NRB) were daily treated with LP-211 in the 5th and 6th postnatal week. One month after treatment, these rats were tested for indices of activity, non selective (NSA), selective spatial attention (SSA) and emotionality. The quantity of L-Glutamate (L-Glu), L-Aspartate (L-Asp) and L-Leucine (L-Leu), dopamine transporter (DAT), NMDAR1 subunit and CAMKIIα, were assessed in prefrontal cortex (PFC), dorsal (DS) and ventral striatum (VS), for their role in synaptic transmission, neural plasticity and information processing. Prepuberal LP-211 (at lower dose) reduced horizontal activity and (at higher dose) increased SSA, only for NHE but not in NRB rats. Prepuberal LP-211 increased, in NHE rats, L-Glu in the PFC and L-Asp in the VS (at 0.250 mg/kg dose), whereas (at 0.125 mg/kg dose) it decreased L-Glu and L-Asp in the DS. The L-Glu was decreased, at 0.125 mg/kg, only in the VS of NRB rats. The DAT levels were decreased with the 0.125 mg/kg dose (in the PFC), and increased with the 0.250 mg/kg dose (in the VS), significantly for NHE rats. The basal NMDAR1 level was higher in the PFC of NHE than NRB rats; LP-211 treatment (at 0.125 mg/kg dose) decreased NMDAR1 in the VS of NRB rats. This study represents a starting point about the impact of developmental 5-HT7-R activation on neuro-physiology of attentive processes, executive functions and their neural substrates

The sustainability transition and the digital transformation: two challenges for agent-based macroeconomic models

Digital transformation and sustainability transition are complex phenomena characterized by fundamental uncertainty. The potential consequences deriving from these processes are the subject of open debates among economists and policy-makers. In this respect, adopting a modeling and simulation approach represents one of the best solutions in order to study potential effects linked to these complex phenomena. Agent-based modeling represents an appropriate paradigm to address complexity. This research aims at showing the potential of the large-scale macroeconomic agentbased model Eurace in order to investigate challenges like sustainability transition and digital transformation. In particular, two different simulation studies, i.e., the digital transformation and the sustainability transition are presented, in order to show the potential of the Eurace model in addressing such kinds of complex phenomena. As regards the digital transformation, the Eurace model is able to capture interesting business dynamics characterizing the so-called increasing returns world and, in case of high rates of digital technological progress, it shows significant technological unemployment. As regards the sustainability transition, it displays a rebound effect on energy savings that compromises efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions via electricity efficiency improvements. Furthermore, it shows that a carbon tax could be not sufficient to decouple the economy from carbon consumption and that a feed-in tariff policy fostering renewable energy production growth may be more effective

Potential serotype coverage of three pneumococcal conjugate vaccines against invasive pneumococcal infection in Italian children

Since the introduction of the 7-valent vaccine, invasive pneumococcal disease have greatly decreased; however, changes in the distribution of pneumococcal serotypes have recently highlighted the need for vaccines with wider coverage. The aim of the work was to assess the potential serotype coverage of three pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (7-, 10- and 13-valent) against bacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia and meningitis/sepsis in Italian children

LC/MS/MS parameters.

<p>LC/MS/MS parameters.</p

Level of CaMKIIα protein measured in the PFC (panel A), DS (panel B) and VS (panel C) of NHE and NRB rats under basal conditions.

<p>Data are presented as mean ± standard error. For statistical analysis see the <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0083003#s2" target="_blank">Results</a> section (* p<0.05).</p

Level of Glu/Leu (black) and Asp/Leu (white) expressed as ratio in PFC, DS and VS of NHE (panel A) and NRB (panel B) rats.

<p>Data after vehicle or treatment with 0.125 or 0.250/kg LP-211 are presented as mean ± SEM, (N = 6/group). For statistical analysis see the <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0083003#s2" target="_blank">Results</a> section (* p<0.02).</p

Level of CaMKIIα protein measured by western blot in NHE (panel A) and NRB (panel B) rats after adolescent treatment with 0.125 or 0.250 mg/kg LP-211.

<p>Data are presented as % of vehicle response ± standard error.</p

Long term behavioural effects of prepuberal subchronic LP-211 treatment on activity and non selective attention in the Olton maze for adult NHE and NRB rats.

<p>The horizontal activity (A), the frequency of rearings (B) and their duration (C) after vehicle or treatment with 0.125, 0.250 or 0.500 mg/kg LP-211 are reported as mean ± SEM, (N = 6/group). For statistical analysis see the <a href="http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0083003#s2" target="_blank">Results</a> section (* p<0.01).</p