Влияние ледового сжатия на составляющие скорости движения жидкости под ледяным покровом в бегущей периодической изгибно-гравитационной волне конечной амплитуды

Методом многих масштабов с точностью до величин третьего порядка малости получены асимптотические разложения, определяющие составляющие скорости движения жидкости под плавающим ледяным покровом при распространении периодической поверхностной изгибногравитационной волны конечной амплитуды в условиях ледового сжатия. Рассмотрена зависимость распределений составляющих скорости вдоль профиля волны от величины сжимающего усилия и характеристик начальной гармоники. Показано, что с увеличением сжимающего усилия происходит уменьшение амплитудных значений составляющих скорости и отставание фазы колебаний.Методом багатьох масштабів з точністю до величин третього порядку малості отримані асимптотичні розкладання, які визначають складові швидкості руху рідини під плаваючим льодяним покривом при розповсюдженні періодичної поверхневої згинально-гравітаційної хвилі кінцевої амплітуди в умовах льодяного стиснення. Розглянуто залежність розподілів складових швидкості вздовж профілю хвилі від величини стискаючого зусилля та характеристик початкової гармоніки. Показано, що із збільшенням стискаючого зусилля відбувається зменшення амплітудних значень складових швидкості та відставання фази коливань.Using the method of multiple scales, the asymptotic expansions are obtained up to the values of the third order. The expansions condition the components of fluid movement velocity under floating ice cover at propagation of periodic surface flexural-gravity wave of finite amplitude in the condition of ice compression. Dependence of distribution of velocity components along the wave profile upon the compressive force value and the initial harmonic characteristics is considered. It is shown that rise of compressive force is accompanied by decrease of amplitude values of velocity components and lag of oscillations’ phase

Enhanced Bordetella pertussisacquisition rate in adolescents during the 2012 epidemic in the Netherlands and evidence for prolonged antibody persistence after infection.

IntroductionIn 2012 a large epidemic of pertussis occurred in the Netherlands. We assessed pertussis toxin (PT) antibody levels in longitudinal serum samples from Dutch 10-18 year-olds, encompassing the epidemic, to investigate pertussis infection incidence.Methods: Blood was sampled in October 2011 (n = 239 adolescents), then 1 year (2012; n = 228) and 3 years (2014; n = 167) later. PT-IgG concentrations were measured by immunoassay and concentrations ≥50 IU/mL (seropositive) assumed indicative of an infection within the preceding year.Results: During the 2012 epidemic, 10% of participants became seropositive, while this was just 3% after the epidemic. The pertussis acquisition rate proved to be sixfold higher during the epidemic (97 per 1,000 person-years) compared with 2012-2014 (16 per 1,000 person-years). In 2012, pertussis notifications among adolescents nationwide were 228/100,000 (0.23%), which is at least 40 times lower than the seropositivity percentage. Remarkably, 17 of the 22 seropositive participants in 2011, were still seropositive in 2012 and nine remained seropositive for at least 3 years.Discussion: Longitudinal studies allow a better estimation of pertussis infections in the population. A PT-IgG concentration ≥50 IU/mL as indication of recent infection may overestimate these numbers in cross-sectional serosurveillance and should be used carefully

Hospitalization due to varicella in the Netherlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the Netherlands, incidence of physician's consultations and hospitalizations for varicella is low compared to other countries. Better knowledge about the severity of varicella among Dutch hospitalized patients is needed. Therefore, a medical record research was conducted among hospitalized patients with diagnosis varicella.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hospital admissions due to varicella in 2003-2006 were obtained from the National Medical Register. Retrospectively, additional data were retrieved from the medical record of patients hospitalized with varicella in 23 Dutch hospitals using a standardized form. Analyses were performed using descriptive statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study population (N = 296) was representative for all varicella admissions in the Netherlands (N = 1,658) regarding age, sex, duration of admission and type of diagnosis. Complications were recorded in 76% of the patients (37% had at least one relatively severe complication). Bacterial super infections of skin lesions (28%), (imminent) dehydration (19%), febrile convulsions (7%), pneumonia (7%) and gastroenteritis (7%) were most frequently reported. No varicella-related death occurred within the study population and 3% of the patients had serious rest symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is not likely that the severity of varicella among hospitalized patients in the Netherlands differs from other countries. A considerable part of the varicella complications among hospitalized patients was rather moderate and can be treated effectively, although in a third of the hospitalized cases with complications, severe complications occurred. These data are relevant in the decision-making process regarding whether or not to introduce routine varicella vaccination in the Netherlands.</p

No evidence found for an increased risk of long-term fatigue following human papillomavirus vaccination of adolescent girls

METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study conducted in the Integrated Primary Care Information database, we investigated the occurrence of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS), fatigue ≥6 months and 3-6 months in all girls born in 1991-2000 during the follow-up period January 1st 2007-December 31st 2014 (2007-2008 pre-vaccination and 2009-2014 post-vaccination). Patients with certain fatigue ≥6 m were asked for consent to link their primary care information with vaccination data. Incidence rates per 10,000 person years (PY) for 12-16-year-old girls were compared between pre- and post-HPV-vaccine era. A self-controlled case series (SCCS) analysis was performed using consenting vaccinated cases. A primary high-risk period of 12 months after each dose was defined.CONCLUSIONS: Fatigue ≥6 m and 3-6 m was frequently found among adolescent girls, but CFS was rarely diagnosed. No statistically significant increased incidence rates were found post-vaccination compared to similar age groups of girls pre-vaccination. The SCCS analysis included a low number of cases but revealed no elevated risk of certain fatigue ≥6 m in the high-risk period.RESULTS: The cohort consisted of 69,429 12-16-year-old girls accounting for 2758 PY pre-vaccination and 57,214 PY post-vaccination. Differences between pre- and post-vaccination incidences (CFS: 3.6 (95% CI 0.5-25.7)/10,000 PY and 0.9 (0.4-2.1); certain fatigue ≥6 m: 7.3 (1.8-29.0) and 19.4 (16.1-23.4); certain fatigue 3-6 m: 0.0 and 16.6 (13.6-20.3), respectively) were not statistically significant. SCCS analyses in 16 consenting vaccinated cases resulted in an age-adjusted RR of 0.62 (95%CI 0.07-5.49).INTRODUCTION: In 2013, the Netherlands Pharmacovigilance Center Lareb published an overview of reports of long-lasting fatigue following bivalent HPV-vaccination (2vHPV). After an update of this overview in 2015, concerns regarding the safety of 2vHPV was picked up by the media, which led to further reports of long-lasting fatigue. Therefore, the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) investigated a possible association between HPV-vaccination and long-term fatigue

Quantifying outcome misclassification in multi-database studies: The case study of pertussis in the ADVANCE project

Background: The Accelerated Development of VAccine beNefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE) is a public-private collaboration aiming to develop and test a system for rapid benefit-risk (B/R) monitoring of vaccines using European healthcare databases. Event misclassification can result in biased estimates. Using different algorithms for identifying cases of Bordetella pertussis (BorPer) infection as a test case, we aimed to describe a strategy to quantify event misclassification, when manual chart review is not feasible. Methods: Four participating databases retrieved data from primary care (PC) setting: BIFAP: (Spain), THIN and RCGP RSC (UK) and PEDIANET (Italy); SIDIAP (Spain) retrieved data from both PC and hospital settings. BorPer algorithms were defined by healthcare setting, data domain (diagnoses, drugs, or laboratory tests) and concept sets (specific or unspecified pertussis). Algorithm- and database-specific BorPer incidence rates (IRs) were estimated in children aged 0–14 years enrolled in 2012 and 2014 and followed up until the end of each calendar year and compared with IRs of confirmed pertussis from the ECDC surveillance system (TESSy). Novel formulas were used to approximate validity indices, based on a small set of assumptions. They were applied to approximately estimate positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity in SIDIAP. Results: The number of cases and the estimated BorPer IRs per 100,000 person-years in PC, using data representing 3,173,268 person-years, were 0 (IR = 0.0), 21 (IR = 4.3), 21 (IR = 5.1), 79 (IR = 5.7), and 2 (IR = 2.3) in BIFAP, SIDIAP, THIN, RCGP RSC and PEDIANET respectively. The IRs for combined specific/unspecified pertussis were higher than TESSy, suggesting that some false positives had been included. In SIDIAP the estimated IR was 45.0 when discharge diagnoses were included. The sensitivity and PPV of combined PC specific and unspecific diagnoses for BorPer cases in SIDIAP were approximately 85% and 72%, respectively. Conclusion: Retrieving BorPer cases using only specific concepts has low sensitivity in PC databases, while including cases retrieved by unspecified concepts introduces false positives, which were approximately estimated to be 28% in one database. The share of cases that cannot be retrieved from a PC database because they are only seen in hospital was approximately estimated to be 15% in one database. This study demonstrated that quantifying the impact of different event-finding algorithms across databases and benchmarking with disease surveillance data can provide approximate estimates of algorithm validity

Guillain-Barré syndrome and adjuvanted pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 vaccines: A multinational self-controlled case series in Europe

Background: The risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) following the United States' 1976 swine flu vaccination campaign in the USA led to enhanced active surveillance during the pandemic influenza (A(H1N1)pdm09) immunization campaign. This study aimed to estimate the risk

Advance system testing: Vaccine benefit studies using multi-country electronic health data – The example of pertussis vaccination

The Accelerated Development of VAccine benefit-risk Collaboration in Europe (ADVANCE), a public-private consortium, implemented and tested a distributed network system for the generation of evidence on the benefits-risks of marketed vaccines in Europe. We tested the system by estimating the incidence rate (IR) of pertussis and pertussis-related complications in children vaccinated with acellular (aP) and whole-cell (wP) pertussis vaccine. Data from seven electronic databases from four countries (Denmark: AUH and SSI, Spain: SIDIAP and BIFAP, UK: THIN and RCGP RSC and Italy: Pedianet) were included in a retrospective cohort analysis. Exposure was defined as any pertussis vaccination (aP or wP). The follow-up time started 14 days after the first dose. Children who had received any pertussis vaccine from January 1990 to December 2015 were included (those w