Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Post-Transplant Lymphoproliferative Disorders among Solid Organ Transplant Recipients

Post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (PTLD) is a well-recognized complication after transplant. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk score to predict PTLD among solid organ transplant (SOT) recipients. Poisson regression identified predictors of PTLD with the best fitting model selected for the risk score. The derivation cohort consisted of 2546 SOT recipients transpanted at Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen between 2004 and 2019; 57 developed PTLD. Predictors of PTLD were high-risk pre-transplant Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV), IgG donor/recipient serostatus, and current positive plasma EBV DNA, abnormal hemoglobin and C-reactive protein levels. Individuals in the high-risk group had almost 7 times higher incidence of PTLD (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 6.75; 95% CI: 4.00-11.41) compared to the low-risk group. In the validation cohort of 1611 SOT recipients from the University Hospital of Zürich, 24 developed PTLD. A similar 7 times higher risk of PTLD was observed in the high-risk group compared to the low-risk group (IRR 7.17, 95% CI: 3.05-16.82). The discriminatory ability was also similar in derivation (Harrell's C-statistic of 0.82 95% CI (0.76-0.88) and validation (0.82, 95% CI:0.72-0.92) cohorts. The risk score had a good discriminatory ability in both cohorts and helped to identify patients with higher risk of developing PTLD

Physical activity and dietary behaviour in a population-based sample of British 10-year old children: the SPEEDY study (Sport, Physical activity and Eating behaviour: environmental Determinants in Young people).

BACKGROUND: The SPEEDY study was set up to quantify levels of physical activity (PA) and dietary habits and the association with potential correlates in 9-10 year old British school children. We present here the analyses of the PA, dietary and anthropometry data. METHODS: In a cross-sectional study of 2064 children (926 boys, 1138 girls) in Norfolk, England, we collected anthropometry data at school using standardised procedures. Body mass index (BMI) was used to define obesity status. PA was assessed with the Actigraph accelerometer over 7 days. A cut-off of > or = 2000 activity counts was used to define minutes of moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA). Dietary habits were assessed using the Health Behaviour in School Children food questionnaire. Weight status was defined using published international cut-offs (Cole, 2000). Differences between groups were assessed using independent t-tests for continuous data and chi-squared tests for categorical data. RESULTS: Valid PA data (>500 minutes per day on > or = 3 days) was available for 1888 children. Mean (+/- SD) activity counts per minute among boys and girls were 716.5 +/- 220.2 and 635.6 +/- 210.6, respectively (p < 0.001). Boys spent an average of 84.1 +/- 25.9 minutes in MVPA per day compared to 66.1 +/- 20.8 among girls (p < 0.001), with an average of 69.1% of children accumulating 60 minutes each day. The proportion of children classified as overweight and obese was 15.0% and 4.1% for boys and 19.3% and 6.6% for girls, respectively (p = 0.001). Daily consumption of at least one portion of fruit and of vegetables was 56.8% and 49.9% respectively, with higher daily consumption in girls than boys and in children from higher socioeconomic backgrounds. CONCLUSION: Results indicate that almost 70% of children meet national PA guidelines, indicating that a prevention of decline, rather than increasing physical activity levels, might be an appropriate intervention target. Promotion of daily fruit and vegetable intake in this age group is also warranted, possibly focussing on children from lower socioeconomic backgrounds.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Association of Long-term Exposure to Elevated Lipoprotein(a) Levels With Parental Life Span, Chronic Disease-Free Survival, and Mortality Risk: A Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

IMPORTANCE: Elevated lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) levels are associated with atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases. The association between high Lp(a) levels and human longevity phenotypes is, however, controversial. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether genetically determined Lp(a) levels are associated with parental life span and chronic disease-free survival (health span) and the association between Lp(a) levels and long-term, all-cause mortality risk. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this genetic association study, cross-sectional mendelian randomization (UK Biobank [2006-2010] and LifeGen Consortium) and prospective analyses (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk [1993-1997, with patients followed up to 2016]) were conducted using individual-level data on 139 362 participants. The association between a weighted genetic risk score of 26 independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms at the LPA locus on parental life span using individual participant data from the UK Biobank, as well as with summary statistics of a genome-wide association study of more than 1 million life spans (UK Biobank and LifeGen), were examined. The association between these single-nucleotide polymorphisms and the age at the end of the health span was tested using summary statistics of a previous genome-wide association study in the UK Biobank. The association between Lp(a) levels and all-cause mortality in the EPIC-Norfolk study was also investigated. Data were analyzed from December 2018 to December 2019. EXPOSURES: Genetically determined and measured Lp(a) levels. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Parental life span, health span, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS: In 139 362 white British participants (mean [SD] age, 62.8 [3.9] years; 52% women) from the UK Biobank, increases in the genetic risk score (weighted for a 50-mg/dL increase in Lp[a] levels) were inversely associated with a high parental life span (odds ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.89-0.94; P = 2.7 × 10-8). Using the Egger-mendelian randomization method, a negative association between LPA single-nucleotide polymorphisms and parental life span (mean [SD] Egger-mendelian randomization slope, -0.0019 [0.0002]; P = 2.22 × 10-18) and health span (-0.0019 [0.0003]; P = 3.00 × 10-13) was noted. In 18 720 participants from EPIC-Norfolk (5686 cases), the mortality risk for those with Lp(a) levels equal to or above the 95th percentile was equivalent to being 1.5 years older in chronologic age (β coefficient [SE], 0.194 [0.064]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The results of this study suggest a potential causal effect of absolute Lp(a) levels on human longevity as defined by parental life span, health span, and all-cause mortality. The results also provide a rationale for trials of Lp(a)-lowering therapy in individuals with high Lp(a) levels

Sex-Specific Associations of Genetically Predicted Circulating Lp(a) (Lipoprotein(a)) and Hepatic LPA Gene Expression Levels With Cardiovascular Outcomes: Mendelian Randomization and Observational Analyses.

BACKGROUND: Elevated Lp(a) (Lipoprotein(a)) levels are associated with coronary artery disease (CAD), ischemic stroke (IS), and calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS). Studies investigating the association between Lp(a) levels and these diseases in women have yielded inconsistent results. METHODS: To investigate the association of Lp(a) with sex-specific cardiovascular outcomes, we determined the association between genetically predicted Lp(a) levels (using 27 single nucleotide polymorphisms at the LPA locus) and hepatic LPA expression (using 80 single nucleotide polymorphisms at the LPA locus associated with LPA mRNA expression in liver samples from the Genotype-Tissue Expression dataset) on CAD, IS, and CAVS using individual participant data from the UK Biobank: 408 403 participants of European ancestry (37 102, 4283, and 2574 with prevalent CAD, IS, and CAVS, respectively). The long-term association between Lp(a) levels and incident CAD, IS, and CAVS was also investigated in European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk: 18 721 participants (3964, 846, and 424 with incident CAD, IS, and CAVS, respectively). RESULTS: Genetically predicted plasma Lp(a) levels were positively and similarly associated with prevalent and incident CAD and CAVS in men and women. Genetically predicted plasma Lp(a) levels were associated with prevalent and incident IS when we studied men and women pooled together, and in men only. Genetically predicted LPA expression levels were associated with prevalent CAD and CAVS in men and women but not with IS. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically predicted blood Lp(a) and hepatic LPA gene expression as well as serum Lp(a) levels predict the risk of CAD and CAVS in men and in women. Whether RNA interference therapies aiming at lowering Lp(a) levels could be useful in reducing cardiovascular disease risk in both men and women with high Lp(a) levels needs to be determined in large-scale cardiovascular outcomes trials

Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity, genetics and calcific aortic valve stenosis in humans.

BACKGROUND: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) activity has been shown to predict calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS) outcomes. Our objective was to test the association between plasma Lp-PLA2 activity and genetically elevated Lp-PLA2 mass/activity with CAVS in humans. METHODS AND RESULTS: Lp-PLA2 activity was measured in 890 patients undergoing cardiac surgery, including 476 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement for CAVS and 414 control patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. After multivariable adjustment, Lp-PLA2 activity was positively associated with the presence of CAVS (OR=1.21 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.41) per SD increment). We selected four single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at the PLA2G7 locus associated with either Lp-PLA2 mass or activity (rs7756935, rs1421368, rs1805017 and rs4498351). Genetic association studies were performed in eight cohorts: Quebec-CAVS (1009 cases/1017 controls), UK Biobank (1350 cases/349 043 controls), European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk (504 cases/20 307 controls), Genetic Epidemiology Research on Aging (3469 cases/51 723 controls), Malmö Diet and Cancer Study (682 cases/5963 controls) and three French cohorts (3123 cases/6532 controls), totalling 10 137 CAVS cases and 434 585 controls. A fixed-effect meta-analysis using the inverse-variance weighted method revealed that none of the four SNPs was associated with CAVS (OR=0.99 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.02, p=0.55) for rs7756935, 0.97 (95% CI 0.93 to 1.01, p=0.11) for rs1421368, 1.00 (95% CI 1.00 to 1.01, p=0.29) for rs1805017, and 1.00 (95% CI 0.97 to 1.04, p=0.87) for rs4498351). CONCLUSIONS: Higher Lp-PLA2 activity is significantly associated with the presence of CAVS and might represent a biomarker of CAVS in patients with heart disease. Results of our genetic association study suggest that Lp-PLA2 is however unlikely to represent a causal risk factor or therapeutic target for CAVS

Genetic Variation in LPA, Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis in Patients Undergoing Cardiac Surgery, and Familial Risk of Aortic Valve Microcalcification.

IMPORTANCE: Genetic variants at the LPA locus are associated with both calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS) and coronary artery disease (CAD). Whether these variants are associated with CAVS in patients with CAD vs those without CAD is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To study the associations of LPA variants with CAVS in a cohort of patients undergoing heart surgery and LPA with CAVS in patients with CAD vs those without CAD and to determine whether first-degree relatives of patients with CAVS and high lipoprotein(a) (Lp[a]) levels showed evidence of aortic valve microcalcification. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This genetic association study included patients undergoing cardiac surgery from the Genome-Wide Association Study on Calcific Aortic Valve Stenosis in Quebec (QUEBEC-CAVS) study and patients with CAD, patients without CAD, and control participants from 6 genetic association studies: the UK Biobank, the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk, and Genetic Epidemiology Research on Aging (GERA) studies and 3 French cohorts. In addition, a family study included first-degree relatives of patients with CAVS. Data were collected from January 1993 to September 2018, and analysis was completed from September 2017 to September 2018. EXPOSURES: Case-control studies. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Presence of CAVS according to a weighted genetic risk score based on 3 common Lp(a)-raising variants and aortic valve microcalcification, defined as the mean tissue to background ratio of 1.25 or more, measured by fluorine 18-labeled sodium fluoride positron emission tomography/computed tomography. RESULTS: This study included 1009 individuals undergoing cardiac surgery and 1017 control participants in the QUEBEC-CAVS cohort; 3258 individuals with CAVS and CAD, 41 100 controls with CAD, 2069 individuals with CAVS without CAD, and 380 075 control participants without CAD in the UK Biobank, EPIC-Norfolk, and GERA studies and 3 French cohorts combined; and 33 first-degree relatives of 17 patients with CAVS and high Lp(a) levels (≥60 mg/dL) and 23 control participants with normal Lp(a) levels (<60 mg/dL). In the QUEBEC-CAVS study, each SD increase of the genetic risk score was associated with a higher risk of CAVS (odds ratio [OR], 1.35 [95% CI, 1.10-1.66]; P = .003). Each SD increase of the genetic risk score was associated with a higher risk of CAVS in patients with CAD (OR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.20-1.42]; P < .001) and without CAD (OR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.14-1.55]; P < .001). The percentage of individuals with a tissue to background ratio of 1.25 or more or CAVS was higher in first-degree relatives of patients with CAVS and high Lp(a) (16 of 33 [49%]) than control participants (3 of 23 [13%]; P = .006). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this study, a genetically elevated Lp(a) level was associated with CAVS independently of the presence of CAD. These findings support further research on the potential usefulness of Lp(a) cascade screening in CAVS

Extended-spectrum β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli in human-derived and foodchain-derived samples from England, Wales, and Scotland: an epidemiological surveillance and typing study

Background: Escherichia coli isolates producing extended-spectrum βlactamases (‘ESBL-E. coli’) cause >5000 bacteraemias annually in the UK. The contribution of the food chain to this challenge is debated. Methods: Selective media were used to seek ESBL-E. coli in routinely-submitted human faeces, sewage, farm slurry, and retail foodstuffs in London, East Anglia, Northwest England, Scotland and Wales. Recovered isolates were sequenced and compared with 293 bloodstream and 83 veterinary surveillance ESBL-E. coli isolates from the same regions. Findings: 10.7% (2157/20243) of human faeces contained ESBL-E. coli, rising to 17.0% (678/3995) in London. ESBL-E. coli also were frequent in sewage and present in 65.4% (104/159) of retail chicken, but rare in other meats and absent from plant-based foods. Sequence Type (ST) 131 dominated among ESBL-E. coli from human blood (188/293, 64.2%), faeces (128/360, 35.6%) and sewage (14/65, 21.5%) with STs 38 and 648 also widespread; CTX-M-15 was the predominant ESBL in these lineages. By contrast, STs 602, 23, 117 - mostly with CTX-M-1 ESBL - dominated among food and veterinary isolates, with only two ST131 organisms recovered. ST10 occurred in both animals and humans: being frequent in surveillance bovines and representing 4.2% (15/360) of human faecal isolates (but only 1% [3/293] from bacteraemias); however both human and animal ST10 isolates were diverse in serotype. Interpretation: Most human bacteraemias with ESBL-E. coli in the UK involve successful human-associated STs, particularly ST131; non-human reservoirs made little contribution to invasive human disease. Funding: NIHR Policy Research

Trends in ExPEC serogroups in the UK and their significance

We thank the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy for kindly providing E. coli bloodstream isolates from the BSAC Bacteraemia Resistance Surveillance Programme (2011), and all the staff at PHE’s Gastrointestinal Bacteria Reference Unit for their guidance and patience during the serogrouping process. This work was performed as part of a PhD study funded by PHE

Food consumption by degree of food processing and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)

Background: It is unknown whether the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus differs from other degrees of food processing. We examined the association between degree of food processing and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This was a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using dietary questionnaires and classified according to the Nova classification into unprocessed/minimally processed food (MPF), processed culinary ingredients (PCI), processed food (PF) and UPF. Type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were verified through multiple methods. Cox regression and statistical substitution analysis was used to estimate associations between MPF + PCI, PF and UPF intake and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. To investigate heterogeneity in the association between UPF and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus, UPF sub-group analysis was conducted. Different reference groups were used in each analysis. Findings: Over an average 10.9 years follow-up of 311,892 individuals, 14,236 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were identified. Each 10% increment of total daily food intake from UPF (%g/day) was associated with 17% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.14–1.19) higher incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Each 10% increment in MPF + PCI or PF intake was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (MPF + PCI hazard ratio: 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92–0.96); PF hazard ratio: 0.92 (95%CI: 0.89–0.95)). Replacing UPF with MPF + PCI or PF was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, heterogeneity was observed across UPF sub-groups, with breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals, sweets and desserts, and plant-based alternatives associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Interpretation These findings support recommendations to focus on reducing intake of specific UPF for lowering type 2 diabetes mellitus risk