The South African Labour Market 1995-2004: A Cohort Analysis

This paper constructs a 'synthetic panel' from successive years of the October Household Surveys and Labour Force Surveys, and shows that new insights into the South African labour market are revealed when groups of individuals, defined by their date of birth, are followed from 1995 to 2004. Three main features of the South African labour market post-95 are highlighted. First, the age at which young Africans become economically active, i.e. transit from school into the labour force, is continually declining. Second, this increasing supply of labour to the market is not being absorbed into employment resulting in a growing pool of unemployed youth. Third, the proportion of the population employed is extremely stable over the ten-year period for all ages. These findings have implications for the future focus of labour policy as rising unemployment is primarily a consequence of increased youth participation and not due to a decline in the availability of jobs.

Re-weighting South African National Household Survey Data to create a consistent series over time: A cross entropy estimation approach

In the absence of established longitudinal panel surveys in South African, national cross-sectional household survey data are frequently used to analyse change. When these data are stacked side-byside, however, inconsistencies both in time trends and between household and person level data are found. This study uses a new set of weights calibrated to the ASSA 2003 model totals using a cross entropy estimation approach. This approach is favoured because the calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) but match to a series of age-sex-race and province marginal totals that are consistent over time. The weights are publicly available for a fourteen year period between 1994 and 2007. This is a SALDRU/DataFirst Working Paper

Health outcomes for children born to teen mothers in Cape Town, South Africa

This paper analyzes the effect of being born to a teen mother on child health outcomes in South Africa using propensity score reweighting. Exploiting the longitudinal nature of the Cape Area Panel Study, we estimate the probability of being a teen mother conditional on pre-childbirth characteristics. We use this score to construct a weighted counterfactual group of children born to mothers over nineteen whose pre-childbirth characteristics are very similar to the teen mother sample except for their age at the birth of their first child. Our reweighted regressions indicate that being born to a teen mother has some significant adverse effects on child health, especially among Coloured children. In particular, children born to teens are more likely to be underweight at birth and to be stunted with the negative effect being double the size for Coloureds than Africans. No negative impact of teenage childbearing is found on head circumference at birth or the incidence of incomplete first year immunizations. These results remain robust even when we simulate influential unobservable effects in both the reweighting equation and the outcome equation.

Re-weighting the OHS and LFS National household Survey Data to create a consistent series over time: A Cross Entropy Estimation Approach

In the absence of South African longitudinal data for the ten years post apartheid, national cross-sectional household survey data is frequently used to analyse change over time. When these data are stacked side-by-side however, they reveal inconsistencies both in trends across time and between the household and person level data. These inconsistencies can introduce biases into research which analyse change. This study calculates a new set of person and household weights for the October Household Surveys between 1995 and 1999 and the Labour Force Surveys between 2000 and 2004. A cross entropy estimation approach is used. This approach is favoured because the calculated weights are similar to the initial sample weights (and hence retain the survey design benefits) while simultaneously being consistent with aggregate auxiliary data. A consistent series of aggregates from the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) model and the 1996 and 2001 South African Census data are used as benchmarks. The new weights result in consistent demographic and geographic trends over time and greater consistency between person and household level data.South African national household survey data, Post-stratification, Reweighting, Cross entropy estimation.

Explaining the persistence of racial gaps in schooling in South Africa

This paper analyses the large racial differences in progress through secondary school in South Africa using recently collected longitudinal data. Following the progress of students who were enrolled in Grades 8 and 9 in 2002 in the Cape Area Panel Study, we document large differences in the probability of grade advancement between white, coloured, and African youth. Probit regressions indicate that grade advancement between 2002 and 2005 is strongly associated with household income and with respondents’ scores on a baseline literacy and numeracy test. We fully explain the white and coloured advantage over Africans in progress through school when we control for baseline test scores, previous grades failed, and per capita household income. The results suggest that the early disadvantage of African secondary students is a major factor driving poor progress through secondary school, with continued racial gaps in grade progression contributing to persistent racial gaps in ultimate schooling attainment. These key results do not change when we re-estimate these equations separately by race and conduct our statistical tests across these equations or even when we conduct post-estimation counterfactual simulations or propensity score matching. As a final check we add a set of school specific factors to the probit regressions by race. These factors are not statistically significant in the models; their introduction only marginally reduces the importance of the baseline test scores and previous grades failed and they are not important in the counterfactual analysis. All in all the paper provides very strong evidence that knowledge accumulated by Grade 8 or 9 is a critical determinant of progress through secondary school and that the equalizing of secondary school quality is unlikely to eliminate racial gaps in grade progression without improvements at earlier grades

The measurement of employment status in South Africa using cohort analysis, 1994-2004

We analyse trends in employment, unemployment and labour force participation by simple graphical techniques, using all the October Household Surveys and the September Labour Force Surveys. We show that African male employment in 1995 seems high, when compared to all the other surveys. Furthermore much of the increase in African female labour force participation is concentrated in the period 1998 to 2000, which suggests that measurement and sampling changes may be partially responsible for the trend. We track cohorts of individuals over the eleven years for which we have data. We show that young people are leaving school earlier, while being better educated than their elders. They are not, however, being absorbed into employment at a faster rate. This has led to a spike in youth unemployment

The matric certificate is still valuable in the labour market

Increasing levels of youth unemployment and learners’ poor performance at school have led to claims that the matric certificate no longer has much value in the labour market. However, the evidence does not support this claim. While the labour market conditions facing secondary school graduates have indeed worsened with time, the value of a matric certificate relative to that of grade 10 and 11 has remained positive both in terms of earnings and the likelihood of finding employment

Identifying Metocean Drivers of Turbidity Using 18 Years of MODIS Satellite Data: Implications for Marine Ecosystems under Climate Change

Turbidity impacts the growth and productivity of marine benthic habitats due to light limitation. Daily/monthly synoptic and tidal influences often drive turbidity fluctuations, however, our understanding of what drives turbidity across seasonal/interannual timescales is often limited, thus impeding our ability to forecast climate change impacts to ecologically significant habitats. Here, we analysed long term (18-year) MODIS-aqua data to derive turbidity and the associated meteorological and oceanographic (metocean) processes in an arid tropical embayment (Exmouth Gulf in Western Australia) within the eastern Indian Ocean. We found turbidity was associated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles as well as Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events. Winds from the adjacent terrestrial region were also associated with turbidity and an upward trend in turbidity was evident in the body of the gulf over the 18 years. Our results identify hydrological processes that could be affected by global climate cycles undergoing change and reveal opportunities for managers to reduce impacts to ecologically important ecosystems

Simplifying Consent for HIV Testing Is Associated with an Increase in HIV Testing and Case Detection in Highest Risk Groups, San Francisco January 2003–June 2007

Populations at highest risk for HIV infection face multiple barriers to HIV testing. To facilitate HIV testing procedures, the San Francisco General Hospital Medical Center eliminated required written patient consent for HIV testing in its medical settings in May 2006. To describe the change in HIV testing rates in different hospital settings and populations after the change in HIV testing policy in the SFDH medical center, we performed an observational study using interrupted time series analysis.Data from all patients aged 18 years and older seen from January 2003 through June 2007 at the San Francisco Department of Public Health (SFDPH) medical care system were included in the analysis. The monthly HIV testing rate per 1000 had patient-visits was calculated for the overall population and stratified by hospital setting, age, sex, race/ethnicity, homelessness status, insurance status and primary language.By June 2007, the average monthly rate of HIV tests per 1000 patient-visits increased 4.38 (CI, 2.17-6.60, p<0.001) over the number predicted if the policy change had not occurred (representing a 44% increase). The monthly average number of new positive HIV tests increased from 8.9 (CI, 6.3-11.5) to 14.9 (CI, 10.6-19.2, p<0.001), representing a 67% increase. Although increases in HIV testing were seen in all populations, populations at highest risk for HIV infection, particularly men, the homeless, and the uninsured experienced the highest increases in monthly HIV testing rates after the policy change.The elimination of the requirement for written consent in May 2006 was associated with a significant and sustained increase in HIV testing rates and HIV case detection in the SFDPH medical center. Populations facing the higher barriers to HIV testing had the highest increases in HIV testing rates and case detection in response to the policy change

POPIA Code of Conduct for Research

No abstrac