IED en los países del MERCOSUR: ganadores y perdedores en los acuerdos ALCA y UE-MERCOSUR

The purpose of this paper is to analyze some additional issues related to foreign direct investment (FDI) and to the development of regional integration agreements (RIA).Firstly, we include additional variables to those that are generally considered in the gravity models of FDI determinants (they are related to the external sector and to the relative size of economies that are involved in each bilateral elationship).Secondly, the analysis of “winners” and “losers” is disaggregated at country level (in terms of total received FDI), with the purpose to consider possible effects of agreements on each MERCOSUR country in the frame work of ALCA and MERCOSUR-EU. The form that FDI among countries adopts allows us to profile winners and losers related to FDI flows in the framework of regional integration agreements. FDI increase could be associated to external creation of FDI. At the same time it is observed a greater elasticity of bilateral FDI flows related to foreign trade. If ALCA and MERCOSUR-EU agreements would increase trade flows –as is foreseeable- those flows would have a positive impact on FDI flows, and predominant forms of expansion would be open/resource seeking forms. In this framework and in relation to its potential to capture FDI, Brazil would be the only “winner” inside the bloc and Argentina would be probably the “loser”. In small economies Uruguay is near to be a “winner” and Paraguay a “loser”.Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Integration, Multinational Enterprises.

Quinto Seminario sobre Economía Agrícola del Tercer Mundo. "La alimentación en México: Producción, abasto y nutrición"

El seminario se propone constituirse en un foro calificado de análisis y discusión de los graves problemas económicos, sociales y políticos que gravitan sobre la cuestión alimentaria de México. A lo largo de cinco sesiones se procurará estudiar con profundidad aquellos factores que definen la naturaleza del proceso de producción, circulación y distribución en el campo mexicano y sus implicaciones en la nutrición de la población rural y urbana

La industria de biocombustibles en Uruguay: situación actual y perspectivas

The paper studies the present situation of the biofuels industry in Uruguay and its possible perspectives. The development of this type of industry is a feasible option for the long run, in order to decrease the deep concentration of the energetic matrix and the high dependency from imported energetic sources. Nowadays, these activities are in the initial stages in the fields of production, regulation and promotion. Therefore, the medium and long run perspectives show certain degree of uncertainty, with positive factors but also limitations. Among the good aspects are the existence of natural comparative advantages and the legal framework. The more noticeable limitations are the problems in the availability of raw materials and the lack of development of the technological and logistic activities related with the production and trading processes. Besides this, other important issues are the institutional organization of the market and its operation, the configuration of precise and permanent rules of the game, and the deep exploration of possible regional complementarities, specially with Brazil. The idea is to benefit from the improvements in the scale and technology of these agroindustrial chains.biofuels, energy matrix, biodiesel, ethanol, biomass, MERCOSUR.

Efectos de Derrames de Comercio de las Empresas Transnacionales en la Industria Manufacturera Uruguaya (1990-2000)

The objective of this paper is to measure, through econometric techniques, the existence of trade spillovers from Transnational Corporations present in Uruguayan’s manufacturing sector in 1990-2000. The principal conclusions are that the export behavior of TNC affiliates is more significant than that of local firms, but this does not mean that there are important trade spillovers. The presence of TNC affiliates does not imply a greater export propensity. Between 1997 and 2000 the TNC affiliates presented a higher import propensity than local firms and there are not evidences of spillovers. In the 1990-96 period this relationship would be different, and a greater presence of TNC seems to impact positively on the import propensity of both national firms and TNC’s affiliates.Multinational Enterprises, Foreign Direct Investment, trade spillovers

Integración regional y crecimiento económico en los socios menores de distintos bloques: Uruguay en el MERCOSUR y México en el TLCAN 1990 - 2018

El objetivo de esta investigación es analizar el efecto de la integración regional sobre el crecimiento económico en Uruguay y en México durante el periodo 1990-2018. El análisis está centrado en el enfoque adoptado sobre la integración, que considera simultáneamente las perspectivas del proceso formal de integración y la estructural, y en una visión del crecimiento que inc orpora la posible existencia de una restricción externa de las economías. Este planteamiento se centra, por un lado, en la consideración de que la integración genera una relación estructural entre las economías de los bloques, tanto por comercio como por inversión extranjera directa (IED), que condiciona el potencial de crecimiento y la trayectoria de largo plazo de los socios menores mediante efectos sobre las elasticidades ingreso; y por otro, en la perspectiva de l os modelos del crecimiento por la demanda de economías abiertas y relativamente pequeñas que operan en un bloque, a través de la consideración y extensión de los mismos para estimar el efecto de la integración sobre la restricción externa de los socios menores. En el contexto de este planteamiento, se adopta una perspectiva metodológica global que integra tres importantes vertientes metodológicas de análisis: la contabilidad nacional de economías abiertas, el análisis de insumo– producto aplicado a las relaciones entre economías junto al cálculo de indicadores sistémicos, y la especificación y estimación econométrica de un modelo de crecimiento con restricción externa considerando los socios menores de un bloque de integración. La aplicación de las tres vertientes permite obtener un conjunto de resultados empíricos sobre la integración regional y su efecto sobre el crecimiento en ambos países. En el caso de Uruguay, en el contexto de un bloque poco integrado y sin cambios significativos, la integración regional en el MERCOSUR no tuvo avances sustanciales, especialmente en el comercio, y su efecto sobre el crecimiento fue menor al efecto de los países extrarregionales, por lo cual la integración al bloque no fue determinante para el crecimiento sin restricción externa en el periodo analizado; sin embargo, el bloque tuvo importancia para un segmento del intercambio comercial de bienes y servicios a escala regional, así como para los flujos de IED recibidos y emitidos. En el caso de México, en el contexto de un bloque que avanzó en su proceso de integración, la integración regional se profundizó significativamente tanto en comercio como en IED, y su efecto sobre el crecimiento fue mayor al efecto de los países extrarregionales, por lo que la integración al TLCAN fue determinante para el crecimiento con restricción externa en el periodo analizado.The objective of this research is to analyze the effect of regional integration on economic growth in Uruguay and Mexico in the period 1990-2018. The analysis is centered on the approach adopted on integration, which simultaneously considers the perspectives of the formal integration process and the structural one, and a vision of growth that incorporates the possible existence of an external constrained of the economies. This approach focuses, on the one hand, on the consideration that integration generates a structural relationship between the economies of the blocs, both by trade and by foreign di rect investment (FDI), which conditions the growth potential and the long-term trajectory of the smaller partners through effects on income elasticities; and on the other, on the perspective of the growth models for the demand of open and relatively small economies that operate in a block, through the consideration and extension of the same to estimate the effect of integration on the external constrained in the smaller partners. In the context of this approach, a global methodological perspective is adopte d that integrates three important methodological lines of analysis: national accounting of open economies, input-output analysis applied to the relationships between economies and the calculation of systemic indicators, and the specification and econometrics estimation of a growth model with external constrained considering the smaller partners of an integration block. The application of the three lines allows obtaining a set of empirical results on regional integration and its effect on growth in both countries. In the case of Uruguay, in the context of a little integrated bloc and without significant changes, regional integration in MERCOSUR didn't have substantial progress, especially in trade, and its effect on growth was less than that of the extra-regional countries, therefore integration into the block wasn't determinant for growth without external constrained in the period analyzed; however, the block was important for a segment of the commercial exchange of goods and services on a regional scale, a swell as for FDI flows received and issued. In the case of Mexico, in the context of a bloc that advanced in its integration process, regional integration deepened significantly in both trade and FDI, and its effect on growth was greater than the effect of extra-regional countries, therefore integration into NAFTA was determinant for growth with external constrained in the period analyzed

Diagnóstico de crecimiento para Uruguay desde una perspectiva regional

We carry out a growth diagnostic analysis for Uruguay from a regional perspective, evaluating different factors that affect investment rate and, by this channel, growth dynamics. We identify the main constraints and risks faced by growth process, taking especially into account the regional context. We recognize a set of major failures or problems that influence the expected social returns to investment and the cost of financing. Among the first ones we emphasize, on one hand, factors that affect expected returns (failures in social infrastructure, low levels of investment in scientific-technological activities and innovation, and deterioration of human capital supply); on the other hand, problems with the appropriability of returns (market and coordination failures that restrict the self-discovery process, and microeconomic and macro risks related to the role of public sector in the economy). Regarding financing, constraints related to the low level of domestic saving and the high cost of financing. In the light of these results and the regional diagnostics, some policy recommendations are proposed in two simultaneous and complementary levels: domestic and regional.economic growth, regional integration, MERCOSUR

Complementación productiva en la industria automotriz en el MERCOSUR. El caso uruguayo

Three periods could be found in the development of automobile industry in Uruguay since the seventieth: the first with the production oriented to the local market as result of import substitution policies; the second (since the nineties and regional integration) where automobile production was exported to the region and automobile importations supplied the local market; and the third, since the crisis, when production fell dramatically and a new stage appears where new alliances and activities emerge. This paper analyzes different issues about automobile industry in Uruguay. It outlines that the future of this industry has a great grade of incertitude that is associated with the regulations that will be adopted in the framework of MERCOSUR agreement and with the bilateral agreements that Uruguay could sign with its neighbors in the period previous to the common automobile policy. This common policy must go forward an intra-zone free trade and common rules with third countries. In this context, it is important the stability of agreements and rules that support credibility and investment processes which allow significant increases in productive capacity.automobile industry; regional integration, enterprise strategy

Regional integration and foreign direct investment : the potential impact of the FTAA and the EU-MERCOSUR agreement on FDI flows into MERCOSUR countries; winners and losers - brief

The article analyzes some additional issues related to foreign direct investment (FDI) and to the development of regional integration agreements (RIA). The formation of a regional integration agreement can imply more extra regional investment for the region as a whole but this does not mean more FDI in each member of the RIA. FDI may have an unequal distribution across countries that form the regional agreement. Within a RIA there may be winners and losers, in terms of the amount of FDI received for each country. This article looks at what determines whether a particular country is called a winner or loser