The Impact of Internal Migration on the Spatial Distribution of Population in Germany over the Period 1991-2017

In 1885 and 1889 Ravenstein published two seminal papers on the role of migration in changing population distribution. This article analyses the importance of internal migration for shaping the spatial population distribution of Germany in the last three decades. We use a time-series dataset of annual inter-county migration flows from the German population register for the years 1991 to 2017. Population density is used as proxy measure for settlement type as an alternative to the commonly used BBSR typology. Our findings show that around 3 percent of the population moves between counties each year, and that the efficacy of internal migration in redistributing population has declined since the 1990s. Our results are in line with other recent work stating that the re-urbanisation phase, which was prevalent during the 2000s, has ended and sub-urbanisation patterns have become more prominent since 2011. We show that internal migration indeed plays an important role in shaping the distribution of population, especially the movements of young adults and families along the rural-urban continuum. In the 1990s and 2000s, internal migration tended to be more important for shaping regional populations than international migration and natural population change. Notably, this ranking reversed in the last few years and natural population change even became positive for densely settled regions. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”

The Impact of Internal Migration on the Spatial Distribution of Population in Germany over the Period 1991-2017

In 1885 and 1889 Ravenstein published two seminal papers on the role of migration in changing population distribution. This article analyses the importance of internal migration for shaping the spatial population distribution of Germany in the last three decades. We use a time-series dataset of annual inter-county migration flows from the German population register for the years 1991 to 2017. Population density is used as proxy measure for settlement type as an alternative to the commonly used BBSR typology. Our findings show that around 3 percent of the population moves between counties each year, and that the efficacy of internal migration in redistributing population has declined since the 1990s. Our results are in line with other recent work stating that the re-urbanisation phase, which was prevalent during the 2000s, has ended and sub-urbanisation patterns have become more prominent since 2011. We show that internal migration indeed plays an important role in shaping the distribution of population, especially the movements of young adults and families along the rural-urban continuum. In the 1990s and 2000s, internal migration tended to be more important for shaping regional populations than international migration and natural population change. Notably, this ranking reversed in the last few years and natural population change even became positive for densely settled regions

30 Years of East-West Migration in Germany: A Synthesis of the Literature and Potential Directions for Future Research

The reunification of the socialist German Democratic Republic and the capitalist Federal Republic of Germany presents a unique setting for studying the impact of socio-economic and political change on migration. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the interdisciplinary literature on migration between East and West Germany since reunification, conducted in disciplines such as economics, demography, sociology, and human geography. We synthesise the literature with regard to data-related challenges as well as individual and contextual determinants of migration. We clarify some misinterpretations and discrepancies in previous studies, identify research gaps, and suggest directions for future research. Our review demonstrates that East-West migration mainly occurred in line with what could have been expected based on migration theory with regard to migrants' sex, age, education, labour market position, and social networks. West-East migration, in contrast, was strongly affected by return migrants who often stated non-occupational motives for moving. On the contextual level, differences in wages are better able to explain East-West migration over time than differences in unemployment rates. West-East migration, however, cannot be explained well with such macroeconomic models. This paper contributes a point of reference for future research on this topic, as well as on internal migration and socio-economic disparities in general

Inter- and Intra-generational Social Mobility. A Simultaneous Analysis Using Growth Curve Models

In diesem Beitrag wird soziale Mobilität auf der Basis von Daten des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels (SOEP) analysiert. Die Modellierung von Wachstumskurven als Mehrebenenansatz ermöglicht es, eine Reihe von Problemen der bisherigen Forschung anzugehen und eine simultane Analyse von inter- und intragenerationaler Mobilität durchzuführen. Die Befunde verdeutlichen, dass die soziale Mobilität nach dem Abschluss der Ausbildung deutlich nachlässt und vom weiteren Verlauf einer Berufskarriere relativ unberührt bleibt. Einen beträchtlichen Einfluss auf den ersten Beruf sowie auf den Karriereverlauf einer Person haben vor allem der Schulabschluss und die sozioökonomische Herkunft. Darüber hinaus determinieren differente Opportunitätsstrukturen das Berufsprestige zu Beginn der Karriere. Insgesamt erscheint die Modellierung von Wachstumskurven als vielversprechende Methode für die Integration und Fortentwicklung des Forschungsstandes zu sozialer Mobilität.The present study analyzes processes of social mobility using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP). The use of growth curve modeling within a multilevel framework facilitates addressing issues raised in previous research by analyzing inter- and intragenerational mobility simultaneously. Findings suggest that social mobility is largely confined to early stages of career development, declining after graduation and vocational training and remaining comparatively unaffected by the further course of a career. The initial placement of individuals within the occupational system and their subsequent careers are strongly dependent upon respondents' own and their parents' education. Furthermore, different opportunity structures determine the occupational prestige at the beginning of a career. Overall, growth-curve modeling of occupational careers from a life-course perspective presents a promising approach to integrating and further developing the current state of research on social mobility

The Impact of Internal Migration on the Spatial Distribution of Population in Germany over the Period 1991-2017

In 1885 and 1889 Ravenstein published two seminal papers on the role of migration in changing population distribution. This article analyses the importance of internal migration for shaping the spatial population distribution of Germany in the last three decades. We use a time-series dataset of annual inter-county migration flows from the German population register for the years 1991 to 2017. Population density is used as proxy measure for settlement type as an alternative to the commonly used BBSR typology. Our findings show that around 3 percent of the population moves between counties each year, and that the efficacy of internal migration in redistributing population has declined since the 1990s. Our results are in line with other recent work stating that the re-urbanisation phase, which was prevalent during the 2000s, has ended and sub-urbanisation patterns have become more prominent since 2011. We show that internal migration indeed plays an important role in shaping the distribution of population, especially the movements of young adults and families along the rural-urban continuum. In the 1990s and 2000s, internal migration tended to be more important for shaping regional populations than international migration and natural population change. Notably, this ranking reversed in the last few years and natural population change even became positive for densely settled regions. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Internal Migration as a Driver of Regional Population Change in Europe: Updating Ravenstein”

Commuting and the Motherhood Wage Gap: Evidence from Germany

In the present study, we analyze how childbirth-related changes in commuting contribute to the motherhood wage gap, which in turn accounts for a large part of the gender pay gap. Derived from human capital theory and job search theory, we examine various mechanisms that might explain why reduced commuting distances after childbirth come along with wage reductions for mothers. The empirical analyses are based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) 2001–2017, which are analyzed within a fixed effects (FE) panel framework (n = 41,111 observations from 7183 persons). Firstly, the results show that the transition to first parenthood is associated with a 33% decrease in the commuting distance of women, while the transition to fatherhood has no effect. Secondly, mothers who substantially reduce their commuting distance after the transition to parenthood (who amount to 30% of all mothers in our sample) show an increased wage penalty (−18.4%), compared to mothers who do not reduce their commuting distance (−8.7%). Accordingly, 23% of the motherhood wage penalty can be attributed to wage losses related to the reduction in commuting distance. Thirdly, wage penalties for mothers who change to a job closer to their place of residence can be partly explained by the loss of firm-specific human capital. In addition, the wage penalty for commuting is a consequence of women taking jobs that are less suited to their skills profile and moving to smaller companies

Stadt, Land, dazwischen

Die Trends der Binnenwanderung spiegeln die Präferenzen für städtische oder ländliche Wohnorte wider. Lange Zeit haben die Städte vom Zuzug profitiert. Vor einigen Jahren hat sich der Trend umgekehrt. Gute Aussichten für das Land? Ein Gastbeitrag in der FAZ