The consequences of online information dissemination on stock market liquidity and efficiency: Implications on African markets

From the Efficient Market Hypothesis, a market is efficient if security prices fully and correctly reflect all available information that is relevant for the stock’s pricing. This requires a medium of information dissemination and transaction ordering with both speed and accuracy. This paper chronologically presents arguments in favour of the internet as one such medium. The internet has also enabled the transmission and archiving of bulky information in a ready-to-use format. And abnormal returns are now quickly observed and arbitraged away to non-existence. Using correlation analysis, we find a positive relationship between the internet and some stock market development indicators.Efficient market hypothesis; internet; online information; stock market; development indicators; Africa

The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from ten African stock markets

The paper investigates the weak-form efficiency of ten African stock markets using the runs test methodology for serial dependency. Returns are calculated using the adjusted trade-to-trade approach. Serious thin-trading was observed on all markets, and more so for Namibia and Botswana, the two markets with significant dual-listed stocks on the JSE. In many of the markets studied, a significant number of stocks rejected the random walk. Only three markets, Namibia, Kenya and Zimbabwe, were found to be relatively weak form efficient. The result for Namibia is attributed to its correlation with the JSE. Kenya and Zimbabwe are much older than most of the other markets studied. All the stocks in the Mauritian sample rejected the random walk at the 1% level of significance using the runs test and is thus said to be weak form inefficient. The same conclusion is reached for Ghana, the BRVM, Egypt and Botswana. Thus the possibility of profiting by trading on historical prices could not be entirely ruled out.Market efficiency, African stock markets, random walk, thin trading

The Stability of Demand for Money in the Proposed Southern African Monetary Union

This study investigates the stability of demand for money in the proposed Southern African Monetary Union (SAMU). The study uses annual data for the period 1981 to 2015 from ten countries making-up the Southern African Development Community (SADC). A standard function of demand for money is designed and estimated using a bounds testing approach to co-integration and error-correction modeling. The findings show divergence across countries in the stability of money. This divergence is articulated in terms of differences in cointegration, CUSUM (cumulative sum) and CUSUMSQ (CUSUM squared) tests, short run and long-term determinants and error correction in event of a shock. Policy implications are discussed in the light of the convergence needed for the feasibility of the proposed SAMU. This study extends the debate in scholarly and policy circles on the feasibility of proposed African monetary unions

Government Quality Determinants of ICT Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study investigates government quality determinants of ICT adoption using Generalised Method of Moments on a panel of 49 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2000-2012. ICT is measured with mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and telephone penetration rates while all governance dimensions from the World Bank Governance Indicators are considered, namely: political governance (consisting of political stability and “voice & accountability”); economic governance (entailing government effectiveness and regulation quality) and institutional governance (encompassing the rule of law and corruption-control). The following findings are established. First, political stability and the rule of law have positive short run and negative long term effects on mobile phone penetration. Second, the rule of law has a positive (negative) short run (long term) effect on internet penetration. Third, government effectiveness and corruption-control have positive short run and long term effects on telephone penetration. Institutional governance appears to be most significant in determining ICT adoption in SSA

The consequences of online information dissemination on stock market liquidity and efficiency: Implications on African markets

From the Efficient Market Hypothesis, a market is efficient if security prices fully and correctly reflect all available information that is relevant for the stock’s pricing. This requires a medium of information dissemination and transaction ordering with both speed and accuracy. This paper chronologically presents arguments in favour of the internet as one such medium. The internet has also enabled the transmission and archiving of bulky information in a ready-to-use format. And abnormal returns are now quickly observed and arbitraged away to non-existence. Using correlation analysis, we find a positive relationship between the internet and some stock market development indicators

ICT, Information Asymmetry and Market Power in the African Banking Industry

This study assesses how market power in the African banking industry is affected by the complementarity between information sharing offices and information and communication technology (ICT). The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 162 banks consisting of 42 countries for the period 2001-2011. Three estimation techniques are employed, namely: (i) instrumental variable Fixed effects to control for the unobserved heterogeneity; (ii) Tobit regressions to control for the limited range in the dependent variable; and (iii) Instrumental Quantile Regressions (QR) to account for initial levels of market power. Whereas results from Fixed effects and Tobit regressions are not significant, with QR: (i) the interaction between internet penetration and public credit registries reduces market power in the 75th quartile and (ii) the interaction between mobile phone penetration and private credit bureaus increases market power in the top quintiles. Fortunately, the positive net effects are associated with negative marginal effects from the interaction between private credit bureaus and mobile phone penetration. This implies that mobile phones could complement private credit bureaus to decrease market power when certain thresholds of mobile phone penetration are attained. These thresholds are computed and discussed

Mobile Phone Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study assesses how knowledge diffusion modulates the effect of the mobile phone on entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa with data for the period 2000-2012.The empirical evidence is based on interactive Generalised Method of Moments in which mobile phones are interacted with three knowledge diffusion variables, namely: education, internet penetration and scientific output. Ten variables of entrepreneurship are used. The following three main findings are established. First, the net effects from interacting mobile phones with the internet and scientific publications are negative whereas the corresponding net impact from the interaction between mobile phones and education is positive on the cost of doing business. Second, the mobile phone interacts with education (the internet) to have a positive (negative) net effect on the time needed to construct a warehouse whereas, the corresponding interaction with the internet yields a net negative effect on the time to enforce a contract. Third, there is a positive net effect from the interaction of mobile phones with education on the time to start a business. Given the construction of the education variable, the positive net effects from education are consistent with corresponding negative net effects from the other knowledge diffusion variables. The main policy implication is that mobile phone innovation (by means of internet penetration, scientific output and quality education) decreases constraints of entrepreneurship. Suggestions on how to boost these knowledge diffusion channels are discussed. Other practical and theoretical implications are also covered. To the best our knowledge, this is the first inquiry to assess the relevance of mobile phone innovation in entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa

Government Quality Determinants of ICT Adoption in Sub-Saharan Africa

This study investigates government quality determinants of ICT adoption using Generalised Method of Moments on a panel of 49 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries for the period 2000-2012. ICT is measured with mobile phone penetration, internet penetration and telephone penetration rates while all governance dimensions from the World Bank Governance Indicators are considered, namely: political governance (consisting of political stability and “voice & accountability”); economic governance (entailing government effectiveness and regulation quality) and institutional governance (encompassing the rule of law and corruption-control). The following findings are established. First, political stability and the rule of law have positive short run and negative long term effects on mobile phone penetration. Second, the rule of law has a positive (negative) short run (long term) effect on internet penetration. Third, government effectiveness and corruption-control have positive short run and long term effects on telephone penetration. Institutional governance appears to be most significant in determining ICT adoption in SSA

ICT, Information Asymmetry and Market Power in the African Banking Industry

This study assesses how market power in the African banking industry is affected by the complementarity between information sharing offices and information and communication technology (ICT). The empirical evidence is based on a panel of 162 banks consisting of 42 countries for the period 2001-2011. Three estimation techniques are employed, namely: (i) instrumental variable Fixed effects to control for the unobserved heterogeneity; (ii) Tobit regressions to control for the limited range in the dependent variable; and (iii) Instrumental Quantile Regressions (QR) to account for initial levels of market power. Whereas results from Fixed effects and Tobit regressions are not significant, with QR: (i) the interaction between internet penetration and public credit registries reduces market power in the 75th quartile and (ii) the interaction between mobile phone penetration and private credit bureaus increases market power in the top quintiles. Fortunately, the positive net effects are associated with negative marginal effects from the interaction between private credit bureaus and mobile phone penetration. This implies that mobile phones could complement private credit bureaus to decrease market power when certain thresholds of mobile phone penetration are attained. These thresholds are computed and discussed

The efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from ten African stock markets

The paper investigates the weak-form efficiency of ten African stock markets using the runs test methodology for serial dependency. Returns are calculated using the adjusted trade-to-trade approach. Serious thin-trading was observed on all markets, and more so for Namibia and Botswana, the two markets with significant dual-listed stocks on the JSE. In many of the markets studied, a significant number of stocks rejected the random walk. Only three markets, Namibia, Kenya and Zimbabwe, were found to be relatively weak form efficient. The result for Namibia is attributed to its correlation with the JSE. Kenya and Zimbabwe are much older than most of the other markets studied. All the stocks in the Mauritian sample rejected the random walk at the 1% level of significance using the runs test and is thus said to be weak form inefficient. The same conclusion is reached for Ghana, the BRVM, Egypt and Botswana. Thus the possibility of profiting by trading on historical prices could not be entirely ruled out